The next maritime contest may unfold where nations can barely see it. Beneath the waves, submarines, autonomous systems, cables and seabed infrastructure are transforming the ocean floor into a strategic battlespace where control of information, infrastructure and awareness could determine deterrence and resilience.
LT CDR NITIKA RAI (R), FORMER INDIAN NAVY OFFICER AND SENIOR CONSULTANT, ERNST & YOUNG | FOR THE NEWS ANALYTICS HERALD
3 mins read.
For centuries, maritime power has shaped nations. Today, strategic competition increasingly extends beneath the oceans, where submarines, autonomous vehicles, seabed sensors, communication cables and energy infrastructure intersect.
Submarine cables carry more than 99 per cent of international data traffic, supporting finance, commerce and government communications. With over 500 active and planned cable systems worldwide, disruptions beneath the surface can produce consequences far beyond their physical location.
THE SILENT DOMAIN
Undersea warfare is evolving from platform-centric operations into networked competition. Nuclear-powered ballistic-missile submarines remain essential to strategic deterrence, while modern submarines increasingly undertake intelligence gathering, surveillance, precision strikes and sea denial.
Quiet propulsion, advanced sonar and sophisticated sensors enhance their operational effectiveness.
Autonomous underwater vehicles are transforming this environment. They conduct persistent surveillance, seabed mapping, mine countermeasures and infrastructure inspections without exposing crews to danger. Distributed autonomous networks can complement submarines, surface vessels, aircraft and satellites.
Artificial intelligence strengthens these capabilities by analysing acoustic information, identifying anomalies and integrating dispersed sensor data into actionable intelligence.
The undersea advantage will belong not to the navy with the most platforms, but to the force that sees first.
AUTONOMOUS DEPTHS
In May 2026, Australia, Britain and the United States announced an AUKUS Pillar II project developing payloads and enabling systems for uncrewed underwater vehicles, with deliveries beginning in 2027.
The initiative targets seabed infrastructure protection, surveillance, anti-submarine warfare and mine countermeasures, demonstrating the transition from experimentation towards operational integration.
Meanwhile, telecommunications cables, pipelines, offshore energy platforms and electricity networks have transformed the seabed into strategic infrastructure.
Threats include deliberate sabotage, fishing activity, anchoring, natural disasters and equipment deterioration. Distinguishing accidents from hostile interference remains difficult, creating opportunities for grey-zone coercion.
NATO has consequently strengthened surveillance, information-sharing and cooperation with private infrastructure operators.
The seabed is becoming strategic terrain where ambiguous disruptions can generate consequences far beyond their physical location.
SEABED SECURITY
Underwater Domain Awareness (UDA) is becoming a national-security priority. Traditional Maritime Domain Awareness concentrates on surface and aerial activity; emerging requirements demand integrated surveillance of surface, subsurface and seabed environments.
Fixed sensors, autonomous vehicles, sonar networks, satellites, maritime patrol aircraft and commercial information must contribute to a common operational picture.
Perfect underwater visibility remains unrealistic. Effective awareness instead requires detecting anomalies, identifying patterns and responding before incidents escalate.
India faces particular challenges. The Indian Ocean carries substantial trade, energy shipments and communication links connecting India with Europe, Africa, the Middle East and Southeast Asia.
The Indian Navy’s Information Fusion Centre–Indian Ocean Region supports maritime information-sharing. India’s 2025 National Maritime Domain Awareness project also incorporates AI-enabled software and enhanced multi-agency information architecture.
However, India requires a broader underwater security framework integrating naval capabilities, government agencies, telecommunications providers, energy operators and research institutions.
Indigenous autonomous underwater vehicles, seabed sensors, advanced sonar and AI-enabled analytics should become strategic technological priorities.
Infrastructure repair capabilities are equally important. National resilience depends not simply on preventing attacks but on restoring essential services rapidly. Undersea resilience means ensuring that disruption never becomes strategic paralysis.
INDIA’S UNDERSEA FRONTIER
International partnerships can strengthen India’s underwater capabilities through information-sharing, coordinated patrols, hydrographic cooperation, joint exercises and maritime technology collaboration.
India’s SAGAR framework and expanding maritime partnerships provide foundations for collective awareness across the Indian Ocean.
The objective should be transparency and resilience rather than militarisation of the seabed.
Legal challenges are also emerging. The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea recognises submarine cable and pipeline rights while addressing wilful or negligent damage. Autonomous systems and dual-use infrastructure nevertheless raise complex questions concerning jurisdiction, attribution and military activities.
International norms must adapt without restricting legitimate navigation, scientific research or commerce.
Ultimately, underwater competition will not be determined by submarines alone. Strategic advantage requires combining stealth, sensing, autonomy, human judgement, military capabilities and civilian infrastructure resilience.
The ocean floor increasingly supports strategic deterrence, autonomous warfare and the digital economy. As geopolitical competition intensifies, protecting this interconnected environment becomes indispensable.
For India and other maritime powers, Underwater Domain Awareness must evolve beyond a specialised naval function into an integral component of national security strategy.
The silent contest beneath the waves has begun. The decisive advantage will belong to those prepared to detect, understand and respond first.
(Lt Cdr Nitika Rai (R), former Indian Navy Officer and Senior Consultant, Ernst & Young. The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The News Analytics Herald.)
