By Lt Gen(R) KJ Singh
a 6 mins read.
Political Initiative?
Two contrasting trends have emerged in the four-year-old and still unresolved Sino-Indian imbroglio. The first– the Directorate of National Intelligence, in its report released in Mar 2024, warns of the distinct possibility of Sino-Indian conflict. It reiterates that continued large-scale deployments by both sides on contested and undefined LAC can lead to miscalculation and escalation. The obvious questions are -will the PLA attempt another foray to realise its Tibet objective? Does integration of Xijang (Chinese term for Tibet) take precedence over Taiwan? Chinese are known for utilising historic milestones. Will the window between 2024 (the 75th anniversary of PRC) and 2027(the centenary of PLA) turn out to be ominous, leading to another bigger and bloodier conflagration?
The second, somewhat reassuring sign is PM Narendra Modi’s recent interview with US magazine, which indicates the possibility of a political initiative to resolve the crisis. This statement must be in direct contrast to his articulation of another adversary, Pakistan, which rules out the possibility of rapprochement. The global strategic community is waiting anxiously to decipher these trends, especially those pertaining to reconciliation, which could potentially bring about a positive change, albeit after the elections.
Chinese Core Interests
China has emerged as the pivotal manufacturing hub in the global supply chain, a position it seeks to leverage through BRI connectivity as a radiating spoke to reinforce influence and dependencies. China has a surplus of funds and infrastructure creation capability, which it wants to leverage through BRI. It is important to reiterate that India is the most prominent nation to oppose BRI, justifiably so, because CPEC violates her sovereignty; it runs through parts of Pak-Occupied Kashmir (POK) and Gilgit-Baltistan (GB), both are contested and de-jure Indian territories.
China has catapulted itself as the second largest economy and competing pole to the USA in the bipolar global power matrix. Its ambitions are clear-it seeks to be at the very helm. It aggressively pushes for unipolar Asia and orchestrates a petty ‘zero-sum’ game to stymie even the modest Indian outreach, with a string of pearls and multiple connectivity projects in the extended neighbourhood. It is simply unwilling to accommodate Indian aspirations and contemptuously rejects formulations like ‘Indo-Pacific’ and ‘Indian Century’. The extent of China’s influence and its refusal to accommodate others’ aspirations is a significant factor in the Sino-Indian conflict.
Chinese Perception of India
Noted Chinese affairs expert Vijay Gokhale has outlined Chinese beliefs and perceptions about India. While India may find them diabolic, they merit consideration as they shape Chinese policies till India can force narrative correction. First, China views India as an unequal and unreliable neighbour, unworthy of any stand-alone status or consideration. Second, India is relevant only in hyphenated mode, tagged with great powers in the strategic trinity of the USA, USSR, and China. Third, clear expectation that India should first understand Chinese objectives and play along. Fourth, China can afford to deal with India in episodic tactical mode within her long-term trajectory.
It is important to remember that the Chinese think of time in centuries. They aim to wear out the opponent by building overwhelming asymmetry. Chinese assertion to push the resolution of the Sino-Indian border to the back burner, coupled with salami-slicing, setting up Xiokangs (border villages), and no patrolling zones, are all part of a plan to create new and altered fait-accompli realities for us, to fall in line. With the kind of dependencies, especially in the primary sector and adverse trade balance, India is on the back foot economically. Indian FM has even acknowledged this.
Bharat Narrative-Push Back
Chinese pre-emptive deployment in Ladakh in May 2020, accompanied by hype on technical asymmetry, are manifestations of grey-zone warfare. China had literally applied its old maxim, “loot the house on fire”, by launching coordinated salami-slicing in Apr 2020, even when COVID-19 was raging. However, India has managed to push back China with a display of resilience in Galwan, Yangtze (Dec 2022), and, most importantly, quid-pro-quo deployment on Kailash Heights in Sept 2020. India has not only rebalanced its forces but also deployed a dissuasive grid backed by adequate reserves.
As per media reports, the raising of another division for Mountain Corps and the operationalisation of Area HQ into Corps HQ are under advanced consideration. There is a relentless focus on border infrastructure like the recently inaugurated Sela Tunnel and road over Saser-La to Daulat Beg Oldie (DBO). It has also added a maritime dimension with successful anti-piracy operations in the Indian Ocean, announcements of setting up the Jatayu base in the Lakshadweep Island chain and plans to expand the Andaman-Nicobar bases. Technological dimension is evident in trials of Agni-V, MIRV and MaRV tests. All these add to the unfolding Bharat Narrative, which is now being acknowledged even in Chinese media, Weibo and think tanks. The moot question is how much more is required to check the Dragon?
In ever-evolving geo-strategic flux, two critical “known-unknown” challenges are evolving. First, it is now known that Russia is in resurgent mode, but its quantum and inter-se influence in the Russia-China-India trinity is unknown. Indian concern would be to ring-fence and strengthen Indo-Russian commitment to strategic cooperation, regardless of growing Sino-Russian ties. The second imponderable is that while the USA has forged bipartisan consensus on check-mating China, its character, especially in the likely Trump regime, is difficult to predict. India must be cognizant that heavy lifting its burden and external assistance from groupings like QUAD would be limited. QUAD, itself is creating complementary groupings like AUKUS and I-5. There is growing parallel engagement with Japan and South Korea, with India being pushed to the periphery.
Way Forward-Narrowing Asymmetry
Pre-mature and ill-advised Chinese foray in Tibet has exposed limitations of the application of coercive deployment. The recent conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza have further reinforced the very futility of the application of kinetic force. Most importantly, it has jolted us out of our Pak-centric fixation and skewed focus on counterinsurgency. The irrational, wolf-warrior approach of China under Xi Jinping has foxed the global community. On a positive note, it has also busted the very myth and hype of Chinese asymmetry, which is certainly not debilitating and is being managed well. However, the next arenas in grey-zone warfare are likely to extend into cognitive domains. Yet, India cannot afford to let its guard down on LAC, notwithstanding the huge fiscal burden.
For India, while Pak remains a permanent irritant, China is the primary challenge. The threat is further accentuated by growing collusive linkages between the two. India is making steady progress but has decades to go before it narrows the existing asymmetry for stable and credible deterrence against the Dragon. The terms of reconciliation, if and when it materialises, will be influenced by levels of asymmetry. While the Ladakh foray, in all probability, was a one-off irrationality, India cannot let its guard down, notwithstanding financial costs and other challenges. In the short and medium term, it is imperative to maintain vigilance and readiness. Focused preparations and narrowing asymmetry, hopefully, will bolster the dissuasive coefficient in the Sino-Indian matrix.
Guard Rails of Reconciliation
It is creditable that India has maintained her stance of primacy and focus on the resolution of the border and has not fallen into the Chinese ploy of pushing the issue to the background. The way PLA has destroyed a set of comprehensive and agreed protocols in Doklam, Depsang, Demchok, Galwan, and Yangtze will indeed now make it very difficult to rebuild trust. Yet, two rising powers with large unresolved borders, both equipped with nuclear weapons, make it imperative for both to seek meaningful reconciliation. India will have to upgrade her intelligence and surveillance systems to preclude getting deceived by a repeat of Ladakh-2020. Even if the process of disengagement and de-escalation is completed, complete de-induction will be difficult. Adequate reserves and reactionary forces will have to be maintained in the theatre and well forward.
(Lt Gen(R) KJ Singh, Former Western Army Commander and State Information Commissioner. He was Maharaja Ranjit Singh Chair Prof in PU & is Hony Prof currently in PU & CU. Regular columnist & commentator on National Security. The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The News Analytics Journal)
