India and China have signaled a positive shift in their strained ties, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and China’s foreign minister highlighting “steady progress” in bilateral relations. Both nations agreed to resume trade, direct flights, visa issuance for journalists, and boost cultural and business exchanges, marking a step toward resolving their Himalayan border dispute. China’s foreign ministry emphasized the need for “trust and support,” while Modi underscored “respect for each other’s interests and sensitivities.” The renewed engagement comes amid global economic turbulence fueled by U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff regime, positioning India and China on a steadier development path.
DRAGON, BEAR & TIGER: RUSSIA-CHINA-INDIA AXIS RESHAPING GLOBAL POWER
Uncertainty continues to cloud the Russia-Ukraine war despite high-profile meetings between Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, and Volodymyr Zelensky, while global trade disputes over tariffs remain unresolved. Yet behind the scenes, a deeper realignment of global power is underway. From Beijing to Moscow to New Delhi, a strategic convergence is reshaping the world’s economic order. With reports of Putin’s planned visit to India by late 2025 and Prime Minister Narendra Modi preparing for his first China trip in seven years for the SCO Summit, a powerful triad—the Dragon, the Bear, and the Tiger—is quietly taking shape, signaling a transformative geopolitical shift.
TRUMP WARNS INDIA OF 25% TARIFF ON RUSSIAN OIL AS U.S. TENSIONS RISE
U.S. President Donald Trump is taking an unconventional approach to global diplomacy — warming ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin, easing pressure on Beijing, yet tightening the screws on India. Despite being among the first to negotiate with the Trump administration, New Delhi still lacks a trade deal with Washington. Instead, India now faces a looming 25% secondary tariff—or “penalty”—on Russian oil imports set to take effect this month. Escalating tensions, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent accused India of profiteering from discounted Russian oil, warning that tariffs on Indian exports could rise further, putting bilateral economic ties under renewed strain.
INDIA, RUSSIA STRENGTHEN TRADE TIES DESPITE U.S. TARIFF PRESSURE
India and Russia on Thursday reaffirmed their commitment to deepen bilateral trade, underscoring that U.S. tariff pressure over Russian oil imports will not weaken their long-standing partnership. New Delhi, currently facing additional U.S. tariffs of up to 50% on exports due to its reliance on Russian energy, signaled resilience in its foreign policy approach. At a joint press conference in Moscow, Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar highlighted that India-Russia relations remain among the “steadiest since World War II.” Both nations pledged to boost trade, with India set to expand exports of pharmaceuticals, agriculture, and textiles to help correct trade imbalances.
TRUMP GIVES PUTIN 2-WEEK WINDOW FOR UKRAINE PEACE TALKS
US President Donald Trump announced he will give Russian President Vladimir Putin an additional two-week window to agree to peace talks with Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky. Speaking to CNN, Trump said, “I will know in two weeks what I’m going to do,” after Moscow appeared to dismiss his request for a direct meeting between the two leaders. Earlier, Trump had proposed allowing Putin and Zelensky to coordinate a bilateral meeting, followed by a trilateral summit. Zelensky, meanwhile, has accused Russia of “doing anything” to avoid such high-level talks, highlighting ongoing diplomatic hurdles in resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
US BLOCKS UKRAINIAN LONG-RANGE STRIKES AGAINST RUSSIA
The U.S. has quietly established a review process granting Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth authority to block Ukrainian long-range strikes inside Russia using American missiles, effectively halting such attacks for months, according to the Wall Street Journal on August 23. This high-level Defense Department approval process has prevented the deployment of Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) against Russian targets since late spring. On August 21, President Donald Trump stated Ukraine had “no chance of winning” without the ability to strike Russia, criticizing former President Joe Biden for allowing Kyiv only defensive options, despite Trump previously opposing long-range strike approvals.
