Indian Navy Must Redraw It’s Strategy In The Western Theatre

NewsAnalytics Bureau

a 6 mins read.

Global Importance

India with its geography sits as one of the most strategically located nations, especially in the Asian context. It has a 2.4% share of the world’s total landmass.  It consists of almost 1,320 island territories covering both its flanks. Having a maritime boundary of 7,500 Km and an Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) worth 2.37 million square km (about twice the area of Egypt) extending in the Arabian Sea, Indian Ocean, the Bay of Bengal, and the Andaman Sea overlooking Malacca Straits. The importance of economic and strategic takeaway is unmistakable. The region contributes almost 50% of the world’s oil trade, and about 90,000 commercial liners pass through it every year. It is expected that the region will account for the world’s 20% GDP by 2025.

This has also been the reason for India’s historical connection with many ancient civilisations including Mesopotamia, Egypt, Greco-Roman, and Indo-Persian civilisations. Indian Navy since its evolution has undergone multiple transitions from being part of the British Royal Navy to the Naval force of Independent India. It boasts of a glorious history with major operations like the capture of Massawa from the Italians in April 1941 and the most significant Op Trident on 04^th Dec 1971, when it attacked Karachi harbor and sank multiple frontline warships off Pakistan. The day apart from being etched in the history of the Indian Navy’s most outstanding achievement is also a constant reminder of the continued challenge it presents in the formulation of the Indian Navy’s operational role for the Western front.

Simmering Hostilities

India’s Western theatre is dotted with major regional players, shadow nuclear powers, most hostile neighbours, and non-state actors. The majority of countries surrounding the Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea have been part of such upheavals themselves at one time or the other. India, Pakistan, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Yemen, and Egypt all these regional players have been at odds with each other due to differing national narratives often leading to simmering hostilities or outright wars.

History often has a penchant for repeating itself in some form, as the complex relations aggravated these regional players started choosing allies between Cold War rivals the US and the Soviets even France and British found favours to step in the regional conflicts many times on the ‘request’ of host governments. The powers that have been singularly responsible for creating this deep divide between nations during their last days of imperialism were again in the region, this time trying to ‘sort out’ distrust. It couldn’t have been more flawed than this.

These developments led to situations wherein, the British government responsible for the November 1917 declaration, for the establishment of a “national home for the Jewish people” was also seen advocating for Palestinian rights; championing democracy in the US, cozying up with West Asian monarchs; and the NATO, an exclusive European security alliance as per it’s charter, fighting with all it’s military might in the Gulf and Afghan wars. These wars were fought with a predominant and massive naval component not witnessed in history till then.

Geopolitical Changes

In the last decade, the region has witnessed major geopolitical changes and alteration of security dynamics. The question of whether Iran going nuclear or not has been a seesaw with the US playing cat and mouse. Sanctions, IAEA inspections, and unilateral withdrawal from the nuclear deal by the US in 2018. Syria has been a classic case of how external influences can implode a country. Libya, Lebanon, and Yemen went through a civil war and have intensely competing domestic politics. China’s aggressive foray has coincided with waning US influence in the region, especially post Xi Jinping’s presidency. Xi’s flagship Belt & Road Initiative has seen major Chinese investments being pumped into the region for infrastructure and connectivity. This was doubled up by the gradual increase in the movement of Chinese naval ships.

China’s growing interest are backed up by the planned capacity buildup for PLA Navy, from 370 ships presently it is aiming to grow to 440 ships by 2030. A study by US Think Tank, Atlantic Council in August 2023 has highlighted how – “Beijing has long been interested in expanding its operations into the IOR as part of a unified hybrid strategy to protect its growing economic and security interests in the region”. If the rapid rise of the PLA Navy has been concerning, the quick deployment of six Chinese warships around the Israeli waters during the ongoing Hamas-Israel conflict was alarming. It was for the first time that China had chosen to operationally deploy its warships around the conflict zone in the Indian Ocean. 

First Responder

Indian Navy needs to do some spade work in continuing its visibility and effectively dominate its Western waters. The aggressive foray of the PLA Navy and its desire to box India around appears to have complicated the environment. Indian Navy as a first responder for national maritime security, should look to work on multiple tactical and technical aspects. This includes – capacity buildup, enhanced coordination with friendly navies, exploring avenues for more offshore bases, and capability augmentation, especially towards underwater unmanned surveillance & amphibious operations. Technical advancements in highly secure communications and interoperability for functioning in an integrated and multi-domain networked environment and maintaining an enlarged presence for quick response.

These signals were also noticed in India’s Chief of Naval Staff (CNS) Admiral Hari Kumar’s address during the Goa Maritime Conclave held in November last year. His four principal assertions were in sync with the current geopolitical realities. CNS asserted India’s willingness – to take the lead in capacity building; leverage the unique capabilities and expertise of each member state; establish regional Centers of Excellence and prioritise the efforts. All these exertions are aimed at retaining India’s key role of being a “net security provider” in its Western theatre.

While the Indian Navy resolutely pursues all these endeavours, an isolated approach to such a dynamic challenge is unlikely to give it expected dividend. Current security challenges and the operational restrictions imposed due to strategic considerations demand an enlarged vision. Indian Navy needs to be mindful and must continue its endeavour to be in a position to quickly integrate with other powers, its participation in multilateral security arrangements like the Indian Ocean Rim Association is one such scenario.

Various positives will aid the Indian Navy in the path it pursues, the goodwill and the gunpowder it carries will be significant. China may have been engineering complications like the Maldives episode, but this will remain a temporary situation for a politically polarised nation. China should remain careful, there are more players for the game it is trying to play. The PLA Navy is attempting to squeeze itself into highly contested waters with very limited mutual support and far off from its mainland. On the contrary Indian Navy operates in its backwaters with much bigger operational latitudes. With the US and Western powers breathing down in the South and East China seas, the PLA Navy holds restricted resources to divert them towards the Indian Ocean. It will nonetheless remain some very demanding work ahead for the Indian Navy with little margin for slippages!