The terror attack in Pahalgam represents a defining moment for Indian statecraft. Beyond the immediate horror and grief, it exposes the continuing threat posed by Pakistan’s terror apparatus. India’s response must now be strategic, autonomous, and resilient—blending calibrated military action with sustained diplomatic and economic measures. This incident offers India an opportunity to reaffirm its resolve, re-establish deterrence, and reshape the security architecture of the region in its favour.
LT GEN RAJ SHULKA (RETD)
FOR NEWS ANALYTICS
a 5 mins read.
The terror attack in Pahalgam has been cowardly, heart-wrenching, and given the visible religious targeting, a new low even by the lowly metrics of terror. As a product of the Pakistani terror apparatus, the visage of communal terror makes it particularly heinous; the timing of the attack is not only a gross misreading of the international system, but also perhaps, a grievous miscalculation. As is evident from the universal condemnation of the incident by the global community, far from turning the spotlight on Kashmir, it has turned the spotlight back on Pakistan, as a pariah, Terror State.
It also needs to be underlined that while the diplomatic space is largely favourable, any action that India takes will have to be autonomous. A favourable outcome will bring more friends to our side of the aisle.
A Failing State, on a fissiparous roll, its domestic politics trapped in a time warp, a state steadily running out of any productive ideas and options, one where the sole arbiter of power is a malignant military, has pulled out a rusted arrow from the rotting quiver of its statecraft, to execute the abominable act.
A calibrated and sustained response is essential to dismantle Pakistan’s terror networks while preserving India’s economic, political, and societal momentum in Jammu & Kashmir.
RESPONDING STRATEGICALLY
The motivations apart, the reality is that the Pakistani terror regime has thrown down the gauntlet. The Balakote induced deterrence seems to have worn off, and a new challenge has been mounted – to the return of normalcy in Jammu & Kashmir, to its tourist flows, its economic revival, and to its secular ideals. The central idea of Bharat and ‘Bharatiyata’ has also been challenged.
Therefore, a well-thought-through, calibrated, potent military response is on its way. There is a bouquet of options, a variety of domains, diverse instruments, and numerous permutations and combinations along the escalator’s ladder to re-establish deterrence. Precise Kinetics, duly calibrated in terms of lethality and de-risking, will have to be at the forefront of the Indian response.
But the retaliation must be encased in a broader set of measures, those that run deep and are sustained. Some steps have already been taken – freezing the Indus Water Treaty, changes in the visa regime, downsizing of diplomatic missions, closure of border crossings, et al – this is a very good beginning. In the days to come, however, we must enlarge the swathe further – focus on isolating the ISI, the Pakistani Army and General Asim Munir, the architect-in-chief, of the ghastly crime. His speech of 16 April set out the agenda for a renewed campaign of ghastly terror – he therefore carries primary responsibility. Liability, in terms of a determined campaign to dismantle the Pakistani terror apparatus and its notorious ringmasters, must follow.
The notion of using terror as a tool of statecraft must be exterminated from the Pakistani state of mind, once and for all. It may be useful to recall that one of the abiding regrets of our late and beloved Prime Minister, Shri Atal Behari Vajpayee, was not to have cleared a strike on Pakistan, post the Dec 2001/May 2002 attacks on the Parliament and the Kaluchak Military Station.
STRATEGIC RESILIENCE
We must be prepared for the long haul. Deterrence restoration is a grueling, hard grind; it may also turn out to be a bloody business. So, the larger Indian State and the people will have to brace up for the challenge and prepare themselves for a period of extended sacrifice, resilience and resolve. Pursuant to a further tightening of the counter-infiltration and counter-terror grids, we must continue to sustain the political activity, economic momentum, tourist footfalls, religious, business and commercial activity in Jammu & Kashmir. The nation’s economic engines, the supply chain framework and the military-industrial complex will also have to step up their game. The larger story of India’s rise, its growing influence, weight and power, must be able to take the horror of Pahalgam in its stride.
We must also be careful not to let the needle of the narrative move towards needless distractions – the nuclear bogey, for instance, which is an old schoolboy bluff. Yes, any conflict between two nuclear states must be responsibly cognizant of the red lines; such red lines, however, must be carefully assessed by India – there is enough space below the nuclear threshold for calibrated, conventional strikes. In any case, the rationale for nuclear power hood cannot be one where, under nuclear cover, the State embarks on a terror rampage.
Pahalgam demands that Indian statecraft balance immediate kinetic retaliation with long-term strategic resilience, ensuring regional stability and fortifying India’s rise as a global power.
MOMENT FOR INDIA
In that sense, this is also a seminal moment for Indian statecraft – Pahalgam is a ghastly, but only momentary, reverse. More significantly, it is an opportunity for Indian statecraft to demonstrate its wisdom and its fire, its resilience and resolve. Hit the principal actors of the Pahalgam conspiracy in the face while exterminating the wider terror machine with a renewed sense of purpose.
This is also an opportune time to wake up to another reality – recognise the rather grim challenges that dot our strategic environment. A strong response must be in lockstep with a longer view of our strategic-military challenges.
Not only the military component of the power differential along the northern borders, the challenges in the IOR, but also the contours of what appears to be a new national security reality emerging to our East. Bangladesh, where a new strategic design, with collusion between China, the ISI and the Islamists at its core, seems to be unfolding. The proposed airbase in Lalmonirhat, Mohamed Yunus’s rant on the land-locked status of the North-East, naval bases & oceanic access for China, the Sinicization of the Bangladeshi military inventory, etc., are all issues of great concern. In a similar vein, instabilities in Myanmar and a growing Chinese footprint therein are a cause for additional worry.
So, a muscular Indian foreign policy must be complemented by a well-resourced and lethal instrument of force, one that is in the highest state of lethality and readiness.
We also need to recalibrate the balance in our deterrence and war-fighting matrix. The more we spend and invest in deterrence, the better we de-risk deterrence breakdowns, the lesser the prospect of war fighting, the brighter the chances for peace and prosperity. Our economic statecraft will need to realign with such a paradigm.
The pain and anguish of Pahalgam must not dissipate in anger, but be channelized into new pathways – those that tighten the military noose around a decaying Pakistani enterprise of vile terror while concurrently expanding an Indian torrent of productivity, power and purpose.
A tightrope walk, but one that an agile, fleet-footed, Indian State must execute with requisite strategic-military poise.
(Lt Gen Raj Shukla (Retd), former Army Commander and currently a Member of UPSC. The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The News Analytics Journal.)
Major Highlights-
- India must act independently, leveraging global sympathy but ensuring its responses serve national interests and long-term strategic goals.
- A carefully calibrated military and diplomatic retaliation is essential to re-establish deterrence and dismantle Pakistan’s terror machinery.
- India must sustain political, economic, and societal activity in Jammu & Kashmir to counter the destabilising intent of the attackers.
- India must remain alert to emerging strategic threats in Bangladesh, Myanmar, and the Indian Ocean Region, not just Pakistan.
- Investing in military readiness and economic statecraft will de-risk future conflicts and reinforce India’s path toward peace and prosperity.
