The Gaza crisis remains one of the world’s most intractable conflicts, shaped by geopolitics, ideology, and raw power. Behind diplomatic theatre and Trump’s “peace plan” lies devastation: shattered infrastructure, mass displacement, and an uncertain future. Israel’s military dominance, Hamas’s miscalculations, and Western ambivalence converge to leave Palestinians trapped in an endless cycle of suffering and dispossession.
AMBASSADOR DR. DEEPAK VOHRA, IFS (R)
FOR NEWS ANALYTICS
a 5 mins read.
I have been there. The Gaza Strip is beautiful, with waves that roll in gently from the Mediterranean. It could be a tourist paradise. Instead, it is the latest example of an international witches’ brew that can neither be digested nor discarded. I am not going to pontificate on Palestine, its uncertain past or unknown future. Wikipedia has enough drivel on the region.
Arab residents of the area were thrown out when tiny Israel was created in 1948 as a Western outpost to stabilise a volatile Islamic region. Many wars have been fought, and tiny Israel has grown in size, while some of its Muslim neighbours have contracted. In July 2025, Canada said it would recognise Palestine. “You do that,” threatened President Donald Trump, “and there will be no trade deal with you.” Nevertheless, several European leaders have gone ahead.
The three main protagonists in the Gaza gamble are Israel, the United States, and Hamas/Palestinians. Britain, which created the problem, is nowhere in sight. Israel is clear that it will never allow a repeat of what happened in October 2023, the most serious attack on its survival as a nation and as a people. America wants to own Gaza, so that its policeman in the Islamic region, Israel, does not face any serious threats from neighbouring territories.
Gaza could have been a Mediterranean paradise, but decades of wars, expulsions and failed peace have turned beauty into one of history’s most tragic fault lines.
TRUMP’S PEACE THEATRE
Hamas, committed to the obliteration of the Jewish state, is trying to put up a brave face to redeem its credibility among Palestinians. In September 2025, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu met US President Donald Trump at the White House to discuss Gaza, after Trump had met several Islamic nations on the sidelines of the UNGA in New York. After the talks, President Donald Trump said a deal was “beyond very close” and presented a 20-point peace plan calling for an immediate ceasefire and the release of the few remaining Israeli hostages.
The plan proposed an end to military operations, an immediate release of Israeli hostages by Hamas, and a quick delivery of aid to Gaza. It also said Hamas would have no role in governing Gaza. Trump warned that if it refused to give up control, Hamas would be obliterated. Demonstrations against Hamas were seen in Gaza in April 2025 but quickly subsided.
The Trump plan also included a “board of peace” to oversee implementation, led by Donald Trump himself. In essence, the plan was an excuse for Trump to control Gaza and make money for himself. Netanyahu saw it not as a done deal, but as a non-starter. Hamas, under pressure from its benefactors in Qatar — itself bombed not many days ago by Israel, which wanted to decapitate the remaining Hamas leadership hosted there — accepted the plan. It would reduce part of Gaza to a gated enclave with controversial former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, afflicted by “relevance deficiency syndrome,” as its Governor-General.
If Hamas rejected the plan or failed to follow through, Netanyahu said Israel would “finish the job,” while Trump declared that Netanyahu would have full US backing to “do what he has to do.”
Both Tel Aviv and Washington knew there were possibly no hostages left alive. By agreeing to release non-existent persons, Hamas would be blamed for the collapse of the proposal. Within two days, Hamas accepted the plan, did not release any hostages, and Israel resumed pummelling Gaza.
Trump’s 20-point plan was less about peace, more about control—an excuse to reshape Gaza’s fate while projecting American power in West Asia.
HUMAN COST UNFOLDING
By mid-October 2025, after a two-month ceasefire collapsed in March, Israel was continuing its strikes across the Gaza Strip. On 1 October, Israeli forces intercepted a flotilla of aid boats heading to Gaza. Hamas and Israel, along with US and Qatari mediators, prepared to meet in Cairo to discuss the dying peace proposal.
For what? Trump had said in February 2025 that he wanted to clear Gaza of Palestinians and convert it into an international resort on the Mediterranean. Unspoken was the interest of Trump, the property developer, in the idea. Sitting beside him, Netanyahu smiled broadly. The basic challenge: who would take the evictees? “Jordan and Egypt,” said Trump. “Not at all,” replied the two. “Mad idea,” said Islamic nations. Palestinians will not be evicted. But none of them wants the Palestinians either.
King Abdullah of Jordan was invited to the White House and pressured to take 2,000 seriously ill Palestinian children, which Trump described as a “beautiful gesture.” So, what is the next chapter in the Gaza gambit? According to the World Bank, Gaza’s economy contracted by over 90% in early 2025 — the largest economic contraction on record. UN agencies compete to make dire forecasts. The WHO says healthcare facilities are unable to function owing to damage or lack of supplies and fuel. Many hospitals have been raided by Israeli forces, who allege they were used by Hamas for military purposes.
The UN Environment Programme says it could take 21 years just to clear debris and explosives. Gaza’s water and sanitation systems are “almost entirely defunct,” with chemicals from destroyed solar panels and munitions contaminating soil and water. More than 50 million tonnes of debris have accumulated.
UNCTAD estimates war damage at USD 18.5 billion — about seven times Gaza’s 2022 GDP — and says it could take 350 years to rebuild the economy to that level. Yet the birth rate has not declined; Palestinians proliferate relentlessly.
Palestinians cannot be erased: their numbers rise, their presence endures, and their struggle remains central to West Asia’s shifting balance of power.
SHIFTING REGIONAL BALANCE
Hamas badly miscalculated its horrific attack on 7 October 2023 — underestimating Israel’s ferocity and the unwillingness of the international community to enforce a ceasefire. Despite decades of occupation, it had not understood that relentless violence against enemies of the State of Israel is hardwired into Israel’s DNA.
Why launch such a brazen attack? Hamas hoped to force the Palestinian issue back onto the world’s agenda after years of drift under the Abraham Accords and signs that even Saudi Arabia was preparing to normalise ties with Israel. The gamble worked — the UN and ICJ re-examined Israel’s occupation — but at tremendous cost to Palestinians themselves. The two-state solution is being relegated to oblivion under expanding Israeli settlements. But the Palestinian issue cannot be erased.
There are 7 million Palestinians in the occupied territories, almost equalling the Jewish population of Israel and the territories. Soon, at current rates, Palestinians will outnumber Jews. They cannot be wished away. With Israel receiving carte blanche not just from the US but from the wider West, what will the Middle East look like?
In the past 18 months, Israel has decimated Gaza, silenced dissent in the West Bank, crushed Hamas and Hezbollah, and bloodied Iran. The Iranian-led Axis of Resistance has been severely set back, while Russian influence in West Asia has ebbed. The landscape now overwhelmingly favours Israel and its principal backer, the US.
Despite such upheavals, the global economic impact of the Gaza war has been limited, beyond Houthi disruptions to shipping in the Bab el-Mandeb and Arabian Sea. India’s diplomacy has been nimble — balancing security ties with Israel while strengthening partnerships with the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Egypt, and others, and providing humanitarian aid to Palestinians.
For much of the Global South, the West’s contrasting reactions to Ukraine and Gaza mark the requiem of the so-called rules-based order. As Nassim Nicholas Taleb wrote in The Black Swan (2007), improbable, high-impact events reshape history. West Asia in the past two years has seen more than one such black swan, each still rippling through the region’s fault lines. And the Palestinian residents of Gaza? Who cares? Cannon fodder is always dispensable.
(Ambassador Deepak Vohra, IFS (R) is a former Ambassador to Armenia, Sudan and Poland. He was also a special Advisor to the Government of South Sudan. The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The News Analytics Herald.)
Key Takeaways
- Gaza, once a potential paradise, is now a battlefield trapped in Israel–Hamas–US geopolitical struggle.
- Trump’s “peace plan” is perceived globally as self-serving political theatre without genuine resolution.
- Israel’s relentless military operations devastate Gaza, while Palestinians remain silenced, displaced, and politically marginalised.
- Humanitarian catastrophe worsens daily: Gaza’s economy collapses, healthcare crumbles, and infrastructure nears total destruction.
- Demographic reality: Palestinians’ growing numbers guarantee the issue cannot be erased, ignored, or sidelined.
