Bangladesh’s political landscape shifted dramatically when Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was forced to leave the country by Army Chief General Waker-uz-Zaman amid a military revolt. Her abrupt departure created a power vacuum, raising doubts about the legitimacy of the interim government led by Mohd. Yunus, who lacks a constitutional framework and faces international scrutiny.
By AMBASSADOR SUSHIL KUMAR SINGHAL, IFS (RETD)
a 5 mins read.
In recent weeks, Bangladesh has been engulfed in an unprecedented crisis, unfolding with alarming swiftness that has left the nation and South Asian region in disarray. This turmoil has not only exacerbated the already fragile economic conditions partly due to post COVID downturn within the country but has also triggered fears of imminent state failure on the lines of Pakistan. The crisis has cast a shadow over Bangladesh’s neighbour, India, due to the strategic geographical location of Bangladesh. Situated between India and Myanmar, and bordering the crucial Siliguri Corridor, the instability in Bangladesh has far-reaching implications for regional stability.
The Siliguri Corridor, often referred to as “chicken’s neck,” is at a vital geographical, strategic juncture. This narrow strip of land is essential for the movement of goods, services, and military resources between the rest of India and its northeastern states. These states—Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, and Meghalaya—are critical to India’s strategic and logistical operations with respect to China and Myanmar. Disruptions in Bangladesh, particularly in areas affecting the Siliguri Corridor, could severely impact India’s ability to effectively manage and support the northeastern States.
POWER VACUUM
The political landscape in Bangladesh took a dramatic turn when Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was reportedly given an ultimatum to leave the country within an hour by the Army Chief General Waker-uz- Zaman who is her relative but in his defence as per newspaper reports his hands were tied since junior officers apparently encouraged by retired army officers sympathetic to opposition parties rose in revolt and demanded her immediate ouster or worse. This abrupt and hurried departure prevented her from formally resigning, resulting in a significant power vacuum. The manner of Hasina’s exit has cast serious doubts on the legitimacy of the interim government led by Mr Mohd. Yunus. Yunus, who has been keen to play a prominent role in the politics of Bangladesh earlier and reportedly has tacit support from the USA, now leads the interim administration during this period of profound uncertainty.
The Bangladeshi Constitution does not have any provisions for the formation of an interim government. To be fair earlier there was provision for an interim government to hold general elections but was done away by Hasnia. This legal gap has been largely overlooked by international actors who had previously criticised and sanctioned Sheikh Hasina’s government for alleged electoral malpractices and democratic deficiencies. The absence of a constitutional framework for an interim government has led to questions about the legal and democratic legitimacy of Yunus’s administration. This unprecedented political transition has left many in Bangladesh and abroad questioning the new government’s authority and its capacity to maintain stability and uphold democratic norms.
BNP (Bangladesh Nationalist Party) and Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) supporters have voiced strong anti-India sentiments, accusing India of backing Sheikh Hasina and adopting a “big brother” stance toward Bangladesh.
LEGITIMACY CONCERNS
The interim government is largely dominated by individuals opposed to Awami League, the party that was in power before the crisis erupted. The exclusion of the Awami League— the largest political party in Bangladesh—raises significant concerns about the interim government’s legitimacy and its ability to govern effectively. The lack of representation from the Awami League has also led to doubts about the stability of the new administration and its capacity to address the country’s myriad challenges.
Statements emanating from Yunus and his advisors have been criticised in Indian media as patronising and even bordering on threatening, exacerbating concerns about the interim government’s approach to governance and its attitude towards India. Supporters of the BNP (Bangladesh Nationalist Party) and Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) have expressed strong anti-India sentiments, accusing India of supporting Sheikh Hasina and exhibiting a “big brotherly” attitude toward Bangladesh even blaming India for recent floods. This anti-India rhetoric adds another layer of complexity to an already tense situation, influencing both domestic and international perspectives.
COMMUNAL TENSIONS
Initially focused on the issue of government job reservations, the student-led protests quickly evolved into a broader anti-government movement aimed at ousting Sheikh Hasina. This shift underscores the volatility of the situation. Ironically, Hasina’s government had previously faced criticism for removing job reservations for the families of Mukti Jodhas (freedom fighters) and was forced to introduce it by the judgment of the Court that mandated such reservations. This reservation of 30% was whittled down to 5% by the Supreme Court.
The protests that turned into celebrations after the departure of Sheikh Hasina saw a troubling increase in targeted violence against Hindu temples and businesses apart from targeted killings and looting. This rise in communal violence has raised suspicions about a deliberate strategy, potentially involving foreign agencies, to incite communal unrest and further destabilise the country. The targeted attacks on Hindu communities, including violence against Hindu student leaders, have fueled speculation about a coordinated effort to inflame tensions both within Bangladesh and across the border in India.
INTERNATIONAL REACTIONS
The response from the interim government and military to the violence has been a mixture of reassurances and ongoing unrest. Promises of protection for the Hindu community and efforts to restore order have been met with mixed results, as sporadic attacks persist, raising concerns about the effectiveness of these measures. The international community’s muted protest, particularly from the USA, has been puzzling. Speculation abounds that Hasina’s previous control over civil society and media which suppressed dissenting voices was the influencing factor as the USA was not keen to put the interim government in a difficult situation since many of its advisors were in close contact with her for a long time and thus influenced the international response.
The fall of Hasina’s administration has had a profound impact on India, disrupting a prolonged period of positive development in bilateral relations since 2008. During Hasina’s tenure, Bangladesh emerged as a key partner in regional institutions such as BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation), IORA (Indian Ocean Rim Association), and BBIN (Bangladesh-Bhutan-India-Nepal Motor Vehicles Agreement). These institutions facilitated investments, enhanced connectivity, and supported capacity building in the region. The current instability threatens to reverse these gains, potentially leading to a slowdown in bilateral cooperation and economic progress.
REGIONAL DYNAMICS
India’s primary concern is the restoration of law and order in Bangladesh and the protection of its strategic interests, particularly in the North East region. The proximity of this region to China which is keen to expand its footprints increases its vulnerability to external influence. The BNP and JeI, which have historically been insensitive towards Indian interests, could potentially undermine efforts to control insurgency in North-East India—a situation that had been relatively stabilized under Hasina’s administration.
The new government in Bangladesh faces the challenge of maintaining the progress made in connectivity and transit links with India. Anti-India forces may gain traction, and Bangladesh’s growing engagement with China—evidenced by its participation in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and potential membership in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP)—could lead to heightened security concerns for India. China’s increased influence in Bangladesh could exacerbate regional tensions and complicate India’s strategic calculations.
The situation requires careful attention, regional and international powers must engage diplomatically to address the crisis and seek a path toward stability and cooperation.
BROADER IMPLICATIONS
The ongoing crisis in Bangladesh has far-reaching implications for regional stability. The abrupt political changes, escalating violence, and economic turmoil have not only destabilized Bangladesh but have also raised significant concerns for neighbouring India and the broader South Asian region. The evolving political landscape, combined with the impact on bilateral relations, regional security, and economic development, will be crucial factors to be monitored in the coming months.
The crisis underscores the interconnected nature of regional politics and the impact of domestic instability on broader geopolitical dynamics. The situation demands careful attention and strategic responses from all stakeholders to navigate the challenges and seek a path toward stability and cooperation. Regional powers and international actors will need to engage diplomatically and strategically to address the crisis and mitigate its impact on regional stability.
The crisis unfolding in Bangladesh presents a complex and volatile situation with far-reaching long-term implications. The rapid political changes, escalating violence, and deepening economic crisis have not only destabilized Bangladesh but have also raised significant concerns for neighbouring India and the broader South Asian region. Addressing the crisis will require a coordinated approach from domestic and international actors to restore stability and promote sustainable development in Bangladesh. India has been cautious in her comments on the developments in Bangladesh though has nudged the interim government to protect the Hindu minority in Bangladesh. It would be important to monitor the unfolding scenario and keep engaged with the present dispensation.
The situation underscores the need for strategic engagement and diplomatic efforts to navigate the challenges and foster a path toward lasting peace and cooperation in the region. The coming months will be critical as stakeholders work to address the crisis and mitigate its impact on regional stability and development.
(Ambassador Sushil Kumar Singhal, IFS (Retd), former Ambassador to Angola. He has served in Tanzania, Belgium, Bangladesh and Hungry. The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The News Analytics Journal.)
