NATO spent the bare minimum on defense and its defense capacities atrophied greatly. For the first time in history, the world’s number 1 and 3 economies (in PPP terms), China & India, are growing in close proximity with every possibility of their geo-strategic trajectories clashing. It must act as a warning bell for planners to ensure India spends more and spends it right.
Lt Gen (R) Raj Shukla
a 4 mins read.
Dramatic Changes
If at one time it was ‘the economy stupid’ it does seem that national security today is driving global geopolitics like never before. The arc of conflict is bending steadily from Europe to West Asia and possibly to the Western Pacific; it could also be veering closer home. The strategic-military landscape globally is being transformed as a consequence, with the defining metrics of contestation being technological innovation, military-industrial capacities, and cold military steel. These metrics also need resourcing and funding, so we are beginning to see a noticeable uptick in global defense postures, commitments and expenditures.
In the stated context, it may be wise to audit the quantum and nature of India’s spending on defense. How are we bracing up for the dramatic changes in the geo-strategic environment? Are we spending enough and are we spending right? But first, the microscope on global trends. The quantum of defense funding by nations is not a fixity – it varies with the changing character of the strategic environment and the conflict dynamic. In World War 2 for instance, the USA spent close to 40% of its GDP on defense, in the 1950s American defense spending ranged between 8-10% of GDP, while during the Reagan years, it was of the order of 6%. This year, despite a tottering economy (one that is growing by 3% or less), China enhanced its defense spending by 7.2%.
Grotesque Reality
The American Enterprise Institute estimates the Chinese outlay on defense to be $700 billion, more conservative estimates suggest it is in the range of $500 billion, even as the official account is closer to $300 billion. India spends about $80 billion annually on defense – the gap, therefore, with the primary combat adversary, is staggering. The richest cohort in the world – the European Union, for years, viewed defense as a wasteful, unproductive, endeavor. Angela Merkel thought she could buy peace by indenting Russian oil & gas.
In consequence, NATO spent the bare minimum on defense and its defense capacities atrophied so greatly, that it earned the sobriquet of being ‘brain dead.’ Now, after the grotesque reality of the Ukraine conflict has begun to sink in, even ‘brain-dead’ NATO is springing back to life: 18 countries therein, are meeting their 2% of GDP obligation on defense, there is talk of raising the floor spending to 3%, even as Trump is asking for an even higher allocation – 4.5% of GDP. A well-lit bridge has been set up to facilitate Ukraine’s accession to NATO.
Poland has elevated its defense spending to 5% of GDP even as Russian defense expenditure is now closer to 6%. Japan’s project of re-armament is on the fast track, it is raising a 1000-strong, long-range cruise missile force and is now facilitating the setting up of a new three-star US Command Headquarters to finesse joint operational planning and response. South Korea has taken steps to enhance its air defense capabilities against North Korea’s missile threat by deploying the Theatre High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) system, through the purchase of the Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) missiles and by investing in its missile shield system, the Korea Air and Missile Défense (KAMD).
Bleeding Dry
The powerful USA on the other hand, ignored the thoughtful advice of one of its most illustrious statesmen, President Roosevelt, reduced its defense spending, neglected its defense industrial base and weakened the ‘arsenal of democracy,’ considerably. Today, it is faced with a double whammy – its military-industrial capacities have dried up – the mighty USA does not have seven days of missiles and precision munitions to fight in a Taiwan contingency; American studies concede that the Chinese military-industrial complex is 5-6 times more efficient than its American counterpart.
Days before the decision to surrender in Adviika was taken, an operational audit of two Ukrainian Brigades was carried out – one had a mere 15 artillery rounds left to fight, and the other had no more than 42 mortar rounds, all because the ‘arsenal of democracies’ was bleeding dry. Saddled with a debt of $ 35 trillion & a debt servicing of $ 1 trillion, the USA is finding it increasingly difficult to find the monies to resource the growth of its military bandwidth across multiple theatres.
Adversarial Environment
India’s strategic environment is far more adversarial. For the first time in history, the world’s number 1 and 3 economies (in PPP terms), China & India, are growing in close proximity with every possibility of their geo-strategic trajectories clashing – the mighty Himalayas have been breached technologically and Tibet no longer being a natural buffer. Such a clash may not be imminent, but various conflict situations including the possibility of prolonged, high-intensity combat are well-nigh possible.
While a considerable part of the globe is mired in deep conflict (prolonged, high-intensity combat), India appears to be in a geopolitical sweet spot and the midst of a rare ‘peace dividend’ – a period which we must leverage with thought and wisdom, to bolster our industrial base, military capacities and deterrence. There is a need not only to address the enormity of the China challenge but also the transformational changes in the character of war, so manifestly visible. We must step up our defense expenditure, spend enough to create credible deterrence. What we spend on deterrence now, will be far less than what we may end up spending on a more costly war later.
India therefore, needs to re-structure its defense spending in accord with three considerations. One, we must resist the temptation of viewing defense spending purely from a monochromatic economic lens (% of GDP), which pre-supposes that geopolitics is constant, which is not the case. India’s geo-strategic environment is particularly perilous – our spending levels need to be closer to war than to peace, more pre-war possibly. Two, capacities take time to create – so, an enhanced dose of defense spending now, is essential to build capacities and structure deterrence. Three, China is a sharp geo-political actor that recognizes strength and will very likely back off when such military muscle becomes visible. Reasonable spending on defense is the surest way to avert war.
So, the Finance Ministry could consider allocating an additional $100billion to the MoD, to be spent over the next five years with a caveat: this allocation must be used to create niche capacities only – AI enablement, space, cyber, drones, AD upgrades, missilery, etc. Additionally, the CDS must be made the Principal High-Level Budget Holder – his consent must be mandatory for all strategic-military spending. Such a correction in the new paradigm is essential if the military is to get the cost-effective capacities & technologies that it needs to win wars.
The various departments of the Ministry of Defense, civil and military need to prioritize cost-effectiveness and dial down surgically on peripheral/wasteful costs – we must remember that mere spending does not beget capacities. The US military despite an annual spend of $950billion is losing every war that it finds itself in – the world is witnessing an opera of failing American deterrence. India needs to spend more on defense, but also spend right!
(Lt Gen (R) Raj Shukla, former Army Commander and currently a Member of UPSC. The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The News Analytics Journal)
