Bangladesh’s shifting foreign policy, marked by deepening ties with China, has prompted India to reassess its regional strategy. Once a reliable ally under Sheikh Hasina, Bangladesh is now charting a new course under interim leadership. Strengthening economic and military cooperation with China, combined with rising anti-India sentiments, signals a strategic recalibration. For India, these changes not only impact bilateral relations but also threaten to reshape the broader South Asian geopolitical landscape.
BY DR. MADHUMATI DESHPANDE
ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR, CHRIST UNIVERSITY FOR NEWS ANALYTICS
a 5 mins read.
The post Hasina Bangladesh and its foreign policy shifts have raised concerns for India and for the region. India had backed the independence movement in Bangladesh in 1971 to bring peace to the eastern sector by breaking up Pakistan. Sheikh Hasina reciprocated by maintaining healthy relations with India. The latest developments, however, have ruined the cordial relations. Both the anti-Hasina groups and the interim government under Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus have marginalised India and are building stronger relations with China. The recent visits by Mr. Yunus to China and Chinese visits to Bangladesh have raised concerns for India, given the strategic implications for the region.
Bangladesh and China recently celebrated the 50th anniversary of their bilateral relations with Muhammad Yunus visiting China and signing several bilateral agreements and bringing back investments in major infrastructure projects like the refurbishing of Mongla port and establishing exclusive economic zones for China.
Bangladesh’s overtures to China are not new and are following in the footsteps of Sheikh Hasina. Mrs. Hasina had visited China a month before her ouster to increase investments in Bangladesh. China had reciprocated by announcing that the relations with Bangladesh had evolved into a strategic cooperative partnership without going into the details. However, India was not very concerned at this stage as Bangladesh’s economy needed a boost. The recent visits by Yunus come at a crucial time when the anti-India sentiment in Bangladesh has reached its peak, and India’s reaction to the internal disturbances and the treatment of minorities has strained the relations between the two countries.
ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS
Ever since Bangladesh joined China’s Belt and Road initiative, the economic relations between the two countries have risen significantly. China is now the largest trading partner for Bangladesh in trade, investments and military equipment provider. China’s engagement with Bangladesh is primarily characterised by its massive economic investment and infrastructure development through the BRI in projects like the Padma Bridge Rail Link Project and Karnaphuli River tunnel, airports, highways, bridges, ports and other road projects.
Although India was wary about this BRI partnership, the current anti-India sentiments in Bangladesh have made matters more tense. The interim government has instituted a committee to review the power purchase agreement with the Adani group over corruption charges, which is raising questions about India’s investments in Bangladesh. Chinese interest in investing in the Teesta River project is also a big concern for India. India worries about the potential for China to become Bangladesh’s dominant partner, which could negatively impact India’s trade and investment interests in the region. The possibility of a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between Bangladesh and China also raises concerns about the circumvention of Chinese goods into the Indian market.
Bangladesh’s engagement with China, especially through BRI investments and defence deals, risks tilting regional power dynamics and marginalising India’s long-standing influence in Dhaka.
STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS
This dragon’s embrace of Bangladesh is prompting India, the traditional regional power, to reassess its long-standing strategic approach towards its eastern neighbour, mainly due to the potential strategic implications for its regional security and influence. From a security perspective, the growing defence cooperation between Bangladesh and China, with China being the primary arms supplier, could potentially alter the regional military balance to India’s disadvantage.
Bangladesh uses Chinese fighter planes, missiles, and Ming-class submarines. They have also received the first batch of the Hongdu training jets from China. Armed forces of both countries have mutual access to training facilities in each other’s military schools. India is concerned about potential threats to this crucial connectivity link arising from Chinese-funded projects in close proximity, such as the Teesta River project and the potential revival of the Lalmonirhat airfield.
As a part of the “Comprehensive Strategic Cooperative Partnership”, Muhammad Yunus’ visit to China in March 2025 resulted in agreements on economic and technological cooperation and significant commitments for investments, loans, and grants. China has also expressed its support for Bangladesh in international forums and has offered to mediate in the Rohingya refugee crisis. Another key concern revolves around the potential for strategic encirclement, with China gaining influence in India’s immediate neighbourhood. The Siliguri corridor that connects the northeastern states to the mainland of India is of main strategic concern for India.
POLITICAL IMPLICATIONS
The current trend of de-Indianization in Bangladesh has worsened political and diplomatic tensions between the two countries. Muhammad Yunus is yet to visit India to repair the damages after the student revolution and the rising anti-India sentiments. India’s hesitance in extraditing Sheikh Hasina has not helped the situation either. India’s comments on the treatment of minorities in Bangladesh have added fuel to the already burning fire. Domestic political factors and public sentiment towards India also play a significant role in shaping Bangladesh’s foreign policy choices.
A key aspect of Bangladesh’s foreign policy has been its commitment to maintaining strategic autonomy by avoiding over-dependence on any single power and pursuing a balanced relationship with both India and China. However, in the last few days, that balanced approach seems to have been abandoned in response to the domestic sentiments. Bangladesh is strategically leveraging the rivalry between India and China to secure better deals and enhance its bargaining power in the region. It has also improved the strained relations with Pakistan after a visit by the Pakistani foreign minister to Bangladesh in February 2025. They have resumed bilateral dialogues, eased visa restrictions and are holding talks on improving maritime connectivity.
India’s cautious response includes regional outreach through BIMSTEC, stricter border security, and efforts to diversify ties beyond the Awami League to rebuild trust.
INDIA’S REACTION AND REGIONAL RECALIBRATION
In response to Bangladesh’s growing ties with China, India has adopted a cautious yet multifaceted approach to reassess its regional strategy. Initially, New Delhi maintained a “wait and watch” stance towards the new government in Bangladesh, reflecting uncertainty about the future direction of bilateral relations. Simultaneously, India has been actively leveraging existing regional frameworks like BIMSTEC to foster cooperation with Bangladesh and other South Asian nations, potentially as a 
counterweight to China’s growing influence through the BRI.
Economic measures and a focus on connectivity remain central to India’s strategy. While continuing to invest in various economic cooperation and infrastructure development projects, India’s decision to withdraw the transhipment facility for Bangladesh in April 2025 can be interpreted as a signal of its displeasure with Dhaka’s growing alignment with Beijing. Recognizing the evolving security landscape, India has also been strengthening its security posture in the eastern border regions through heightened border security measures and the deployment of advanced military assets in the Northeast, Additionally, India appears to be adopting a more inclusive approach by reaching out to opposition parties and diverse stakeholders in Bangladesh, moving beyond its traditional focus on the Awami League, to ensure long-term stability in bilateral ties.
Bangladesh’s foreign policy changes have several regional implications. India’s Neighbourhood First policy and its Indo-Pacific strategy have raised concerns for Bangladesh, as it feels that India’s regional cooperation attempts have been to demonstrate itself as the regional leader. India’s overtures in regional cooperation are also seen as hegemonic in nature. Bangladesh, strategically located at the juncture of South and Southeast Asia and bordering India on three sides, is becoming an increasingly important player in this evolving geopolitical landscape. Its growing engagement with China carries significant implications for India, compelling New Delhi to undertake a critical reassessment of its regional strategy to safeguard its interests and maintain stability in its neighbourhood.
A balanced approach that combines proactive diplomatic engagement, mutually beneficial economic cooperation, and a nuanced understanding of Bangladesh’s strategic priorities will be crucial for India to effectively navigate the evolving trilateral dynamics and maintain its influence in the region. The ability of India to adapt and compete with China’s economic prowess while leveraging its unique historical and cultural connections will determine the future trajectory of its relationship with Bangladesh and its overall standing in South Asia.
While Bangladesh and China see a win-win situation in the renewed partnership, India needs to recalibrate its regional strategy to cater to the diversification of relations with its neighbours. India needs to accept that Chinese influence cannot be wished away while it becomes closer to the United States. Trump’s tariff game might help solidify China’s presence in the region, as China also needs alternative trade arrangements.
Bangladesh, which had balanced its relations between the US and China, is also threatened by Trump’s 37% tariffs on its garment industry. US influence in the region might decrease as its tariff war with China may go on for a few months. In this new and fast-changing world order, it is pragmatic for India to look beyond historic ties, take a hard look at the neighbourhood to make course corrections to keep its good relations in the region.
(Dr. Madhumati Deshpande is an Associate Professor at the Department of International Studies, Christ University (Deemed to be University). The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The News Analytics Journal.)
Major Highlights-
- Bangladesh is embracing China through strategic partnerships and defence cooperation.
- Anti-India sentiments and policy shifts in Dhaka have marginalised Indian interests.
- China’s growing economic footprint in Bangladesh through BRI projects.
- China’s military support to Bangladesh heightens India’s worries over regional security.
- India must combine economic and strategic engagements to retain its influence in South Asia.
