Pakistan’s recent diplomatic drive, led by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, highlights a desperate push to counter economic fragility and political isolation. From courting Washington with rare earth deals and Trump’s Nobel nomination to reaffirming ties with Beijing, Riyadh, and Kuala Lumpur, Islamabad seeks to diversify partnerships. Yet, deep debt, domestic instability, and military dominance continue to overshadow its fragile international rehabilitation.
AMBASSADOR SRIKUMAR MENON, IFS(R)
FOR NEWS ANALYTICS
a 5 mins read.
Pakistan’s recent international outreach, led by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, reflects a strategic push to reshape its global standing amid economic fragility and geopolitical isolation. Sharif has undertaken 10 foreign trips in the past 18 months. His visits in 2025 to the US, China, Saudi Arabia and Malaysia underscore this concerted effort to diversify partnerships, secure economic lifelines, and counter perceptions of over-reliance on China.
Pakistan, by virtue of its geographical and strategic location bordering India, China, Afghanistan, and Iran, with proximity to the Persian Gulf and Central Asia, has for years been a geopolitical test ground and battleground where great powers vie for influence.
For decades, China has leveraged Pakistan as a strategic ally to limit India’s regional influence. For the same reasons, the US and the West have treated Pakistan as a ‘non-NATO ally’, a status that briefly eroded after 2018—but now appears restored in the Trump 2.0 era.
THE NEW US-PAK BONHOMIE
Following a meeting between US President Trump and Pakistan’s Army Chief Asim Munir in June, the Pakistan Government formally nominated Trump for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, for what it described as ‘Trump’s direct role in securing a ceasefire and de-escalating the May 2025 India-Pakistan conflict’.
The subsequent Sharif-Munir visit to the US in September was more about optics rather than substance. Their awkward meeting with President Trump in the White House was highlighted by the media publishing images of Munir presenting a briefcase containing rare earth minerals (REMs) to Trump, with a visibly flustered and embarrassed Sharif standing aside and witnessing the act. This “superficial and farcical theatre”—as some analysts chose to describe it, was something that also drew ridicule and scepticism from international and Pakistan’s own domestic media.
For the record, the visit garnered a $500 million deal with the American company—US Strategic Metals (USSM)—for exploration and exports of rare earths and minerals. A quid pro quo of sorts—a just reward for pushing Trump’s Nobel nomination. From the US perspective, this strategic engagement with Pakistan, driven by economic considerations, is also a double-edged sword—used as a hedge against India and China.
This latest US-Pak alignment is a subtle nudge to tilt the balance in South Asia. It may well mean India reassessing the limits of its role and expectations from the Quad. With Trump pushing ahead with punitive tariffs against India and flaunting the newfound bonhomie with Pakistan, this could also be seen as an attempt to contain India’s drive to seek self-sufficiency in mineral resources.
On the other hand, recent US media reports have pointed to the Trump family firm’s lucrative crypto ties to Pakistan—raising questions about transparency and the ethical aspects of recent business deals, as well as issues of ‘conflict of interests’. Most of the allegations, though unproven, point to a linkage between the lucrative business ties and President Trump’s pro-Pakistan indulgence of late.
The $62 billion CPEC, part of China’s Belt and Road, advances infrastructure but faces distrust, with critics viewing it as burdening Pakistan as China’s client state.
THE “PAK-CHINA” AXIS
Pakistan and China relations have often been termed an “all-weather strategic cooperative partnership”. The two have maintained steady diplomatic, economic, and military ties for the past several decades.
PM Sharif’s China Visit in Aug–Sep this year, as part of his participation in the Tianjin SCO Summit, did reinforce this steadfast partnership, yielding Chinese commitments amounting to $8.5 billion in deals, including FDI pledges from technology companies like Alibaba and Huawei. China is currently Pakistan’s largest trading partner, with bilateral trade touching $27 billion. However, what is significant is that China is also Pakistan’s largest creditor, holding about 30 percent of Pakistan’s $130 billion external debt.
The $62 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which is part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, drives infrastructure, energy, and connectivity projects. The mega project faces significant public distrust, scepticism and resentment in Pakistan. Some have asserted that the CPEC is a burden imposed on Pakistan as China’s “client state”.
ENGAGEMENT WITH SAUDI ARABIA
Over the years, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have shared a strong “brotherly” alliance based on Islamic solidarity, economic ties, and defence cooperation. Besides being Pakistan’s top oil supplier, Saudi Arabia is the top provider of aid and loans, with bilateral trade crossing $5 billion covering energy, mining, military jets, hardware and arms.
PM Sharif’s visit to Riyadh in September resulted in the signing of the “Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement”—that treats aggression against one as an attack on both. This will provide significant security leverage for both countries. The partnership would also help Pakistan to secure its economic lifelines to navigate its debt problems.
PM Sharif’s recent visit to Malaysia in October was aimed at boosting Pakistan’s agriculture and technology sectors, besides diversifying trade and securing Malaysia’s commitment to FDI in fintech and e-commerce. In terms of perception, the visit appears to have minimised, to some extent, Pakistan’s diplomatic isolation vis-à-vis OIC, while also opening access to the ASEAN market.
BLUSTER VS REALITY
The Pakistani establishment and state media have gone to town claiming victory and bragging rights after this recent flurry of diplomatic outreach and visits by the Prime Minister and Army Chief.
For decades, Pakistan has lurched through crises, relying on external powers for survival, with perceived influence stemming from strategic utility to others, not intrinsic economic or military strength.
Notwithstanding some of the positives that have emerged from these visits, there are the ground realities to contend with—the deep cracks beneath the surface, especially the country’s inherent structural weaknesses.
Benefiting from IMF bailout support, the Pakistani economy is currently operating under a 37-month programme of $7 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF)—approved last year in September 2024. This is to support the country’s structural reforms for resolving the balance-of-payments issues.
Despite this MF prop, Pakistan’s economy and global standing continue to remain precarious and unstable—given the continuing unrest and turmoil in its domestic politics, enhanced security threats, and its frequent inclusion in the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey list—amid concerns about its financial governance (rather mis-governance) and support for terror groups. While the contrast between rhetoric and reality in Pakistan is visible to followers of geopolitics, the current instability is also compounded by continuing militant activities within Pakistan—especially in regions like Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
These destabilising factors are a direct consequence of Pakistan’s long history of state-sponsored terrorism, allowing the creation of an entrenched terror ecosystem within its territory, resulting in both direct financial costs and international scrutiny. Defence Minister Khawaja Asif publicly admitted in April 2025 that Pakistan has been supporting terrorist groups for the past 30 years—a fact that India had been flagging to the world all these years. The FATF—which has a process of periodic scrutiny—would no doubt take cognisance of this belated admission coming from a senior government functionary.
Also, one cannot ignore the fact that Pakistan has a $130 billion debt. Its efforts to offset the growing debt through reliance on external deals have not met with any major success so far. The Pakistani economy is ranked 34th in terms of ‘fragility’ and 108th in ‘ease of doing business’.
For decades, Pakistan has been hurtling from one crisis to the other. Driven by the dire need to survive, successive governments and regimes have unsuccessfully tried to find a developmental framework to arrest the slide. Pakistan has actively wooed big powers to maximise short-term benefits. India has always viewed Pakistan’s fleeting and temporary geopolitical influences as heavily dependent on its alignment with the United States, China, and, to some extent, Middle Eastern nations, rather than its own economic or military strength. Analysts have pointed out that Pakistan’s perceived rehabilitation in recent months stems from its “utility in others’ strategies”, and not “its own intrinsic power”.
INTERNATIONAL PERCEPTION
The view from India is that Pakistan lacks the economic depth, political stability, or home-grown technological strength to wield power independently. The flurry of recent visits undertaken by PM Sharif, therefore, must be seen more as ‘symbolism’ than of any real value in bringing about a turnaround in Pakistan’s troubled economy and fortunes.
Dr Farzana Shaikh observed Pakistan’s credibility suffers from a disconnect between elected authorities and military dominance, stressing genuine international trust requires the military stepping back from power.
A few years ago, Dr Farzana Shaikh, a Senior South Asia Fellow at Chatham House in London, captured the essence of Pakistan’s dilemma, stating that “Pakistan’s image is compromised by a disconnect between the stated position of the elected authorities and the reality of the way power is exercised… and in order to start to address the lack of credibility in the eyes of the international community, the military needs to take a step back”.
However, the last word must belong to India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, who stated in December 2024 that “India desires peaceful relations with Pakistan, but that such ties must be free from terrorism”—a clear reaffirmation of India’s longstanding policy that “terror and talks cannot go together”.
Only time will show whether Pakistan takes the hint and decides to play ball on these terms to achieve its desire to find a respectable place on the global stage among the comity of nations. Let’s hope, for the sake of lasting peace in South Asia, that this soon becomes a reality.
(Ambassador Srikumar Menon, IFS (R.), former Ambassador of India to South Sudan, Angola and Sao Tome & Principe. The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The News Analytics Herald.)
Key Takeaways
- Pakistan courts renewed US ties through rare earths deal and Trump’s Nobel Peace nomination.
- China remains Pakistan’s anchor, but CPEC debt, corruption, and public resentment fuel growing distrust.
- Saudi defence pact strengthens strategic security cooperation while providing critical financial lifelines and economic aid.
- Malaysia outreach boosts agriculture, fintech, and e-commerce, opening ASEAN markets and easing diplomatic isolation.
- Deep debt, militancy, and weak reforms undermine Pakistan’s fragile global rehabilitation and credibility.
