India’s neighbourhood is a cauldron of volatility, from Taliban-led instability and terror threats in Afghanistan to Nepal’s political churn and China’s expanding sway. Even Bhutan’s tentative outreach to Beijing, coupled with boundary disputes, amplifies strategic anxieties most starkly seen in the post-Doklam crisis that threatens India’s vulnerable Siliguri corridor.
DR. G OMPRASAD
ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR | CENTRE FOR SOUTH ASIAN STUDIES | JAWAHARLAL NEHRU UNIVERSITY | FOR NEWS ANALYTICS
a 5 mins read.
India, in contemporary times, is slowly and gradually transforming itself from a regional power to a consequential power in the international arena, characterised by conflict and cooperation. The Post-Cold War world, which has seen a transition from a unipolar world order to a multipolar configuration, has reflected an intensified power struggle among the aspirant players. These times are also epitomised by the decline of Western dominance, Russia’s assertiveness, China’s ever-increasing footprint across the developing world, weakened multilateralism, and globalisation. These times present both opportunities and complexities to India. The country’s economic development indicators, skilled manpower, demography, technological outreach, diplomatic postures, and military capabilities have enhanced its global profile, creating an environment which enabled India to play a proactive role in shaping global norms and voicing the global south. India’s economic and strategic relevance has grown manifold.
Yet India has been continuously facing concerns from its neighbourhood in the competitive geopolitical environment. Border and military tensions with China, Pakistan and Bangladesh, political tensions with Nepal and the Maldives, ever-increasing threats from non-state actors, terrorism, political instability, economic problems posing new traditional and non-traditional threats, and constantly testing India’s preparedness and regional outreach. These developments are compounded by the weakened space for regional cooperation in South Asia and the constrained India’s diplomatic leverage.
GEOPOLITICAL INFLUX
India’s neighbourhood presents an intricate web of challenges. The absence of an inclusive government since the Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan in 2021, the presence of terror groups, and the lack of economic stability pose a direct threat to regional peace. For India, these developments have resulted in a significant setback to its developmental and diplomatic investments in Afghanistan. The strategic implications include diminished critical depth and heightened fears of radicalisation spilling over into the wider South Asian region.
In Nepal, India contends with persistent political instability, a surge in nationalist sentiment, and increasing Chinese influence through political and economic engagements. Although Bhutan has long remained a steadfast partner, its recent overtures towards establishing diplomatic relations with China and the unresolved boundary issues have introduced a new layer of strategic concern for India, which was visible in the post Doklam crisis, particularly the threatened Siliguri corridor.
Sri Lanka’s recent economic collapse laid bare the fragility of India’s regional periphery. India’s swift economic assistance reinforced its position as a reliable partner. However, China’s continuing influence, particularly through loans and infrastructure investments, underscores a sustained challenge to India’s long-term engagement strategy in Sri Lanka.
Myanmar’s 2021 military coup and subsequent violent conflict between the Army and resisting militant forces have destabilised border regions and disrupted connectivity projects critical to India’s Act East Policy. Political turnaround in Bangladesh has destabilised the bilateral relations, giving space for a Pakistan, Bangladesh, and China nexus, making India’s position more delicate in the sub-regional equation.
Pakistan continues to pose a traditional security threat. Cross-border terrorism, diplomatic deadlock, and its alignment with China and Turkey, which was visible during Operation Sindoor, have intensified India’s security dilemmas. These interconnected developments paint a picture of a region in flux, requiring India to continuously recalibrate its neighbourhood diplomacy to safeguard its interests, manage emerging crises, and compete with external powers.
India has shifted from reactive to assertive regional engagement, adopting a balanced ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy focused on diplomacy, partnerships, and capacity-building amid external interventions and Chinese influence.
SHIFTING GLOBAL ORDER
In this era of shifting power dynamics, international instabilities and interests shown by the extra-regional powers, India’s neighbourhood is witnessing significant geopolitical flux. Most visible activities are by China, which has put up a significant challenge for India, through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), both on land and on sea. From 60 billion USD energy, transport, shipping infrastructure investments in Pakistan, to about 12 billion USD airport, port, and energy development projects in Sri Lanka, and road projects in Nepal, to canal development, port and refineries in Bangladesh to its ever growing presence in other neighbouring countries including Maldives, Myanmar and Thailand, China’s presence is deepening, often at the cost of India’s traditional influence. The military standoff in eastern Ladakh since 2020 underscores the strategic tension between the two Asian giants and signals a long-term challenge to India’s northern borders.
India’s maritime sphere is becoming increasingly crucial amid rising strategic rivalries, especially in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), which is central to its trade and security. China’s expanding naval footprint via dual-use ports, surveillance capabilities, and bases like Djibouti in northern Africa, close to the Bab-el-Mandab strait and the Gulf of Aden, is close to shipping lines that India banks on for its trade and energy supplies, signalling an intent to reshape regional maritime dynamics. Its growing presence in Gwadar and Hambantota raises concerns over an encirclement strategy aimed at undermining India’s traditional maritime influence.
In response, India is strengthening its naval posture, boosting maritime domain awareness, and deepening partnerships, particularly through the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue with the U.S., Japan, and Australia. Though informal, the Quad facilitates coordination on navigation rights, maritime security, and infrastructure development. Smaller island nations, such as the Maldives and Seychelles, have also become strategically significant, prompting India to invest in developmental cooperation and capacity-building without appearing overbearing. Simultaneously, global powers are increasingly active in the region, often bypassing India. Without regional coherence, India’s global ambitions through forums like G20 or BRICS risk being undercut. Strengthening neighbourhood ties is therefore critical to sustaining India’s rise.
INDIA’S RESPONSES
India’s approach to regional challenges has evolved from cautious reactivity to a more purposeful and assertive engagement. Confronted with a complex strategic environment marked by external interventions, internal instability in neighbouring states, and the increasing penetration of adversaries like China, India has adopted a carefully balanced posture. Central to this shift is the “Neighbourhood First” policy, which prioritises stabilising ties with immediate neighbours through sustained high-level diplomacy, development partnerships, and capacity-building initiatives.
India engages like-minded partners through forums like the Quad, balancing Indo-Pacific commitments with strategic autonomy, while asserting leadership globally via G20, BRICS, and Global South initiatives.
India’s assistance to Sri Lanka during its economic crisis, delivered through credit lines, food, fuel, and medicine, demonstrated not just responsiveness but also strategic depth, countering perceptions of Chinese dominance. In other instances, India’s development diplomacy has grown more structured, incorporating training programmes, infrastructure support, and digital connectivity across Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, and the Maldives. These efforts aim to project India as a dependable partner, fostering mutual benefit rather than dependency.
Simultaneously, India has adapted to the limitations of multilateral mechanisms like SAARC by strengthening regional cooperation through alternative platforms. Forums such as Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal (BBIN) sub-regional cooperation, Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), and the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) offer opportunities to collaborate on energy, trade, disaster relief, maritime security, and environmental issues. These institutions allow India to sidestep political deadlocks while promoting functional regionalism and inclusive growth. The best example of such successful cooperation can be seen in the electricity trade between the BBIN countries.
In the maritime domain, India has strengthened its ties with strategically important island nations, Sri Lanka, Mauritius, and Seychelles, through joint naval exercises, coastal radar systems, and defence infrastructure. Indian Navy’s operations against pirates and hijackers have provided a safety network to the smaller island countries in the Arabian and the Bay of Bengal seas. These moves align with India’s broader ambition to act as a “net security provider” in the Indian Ocean Region, reinforcing its image as a responsible power committed to regional stability.
Beyond the immediate neighbourhood, India’s engagement with like-minded powers through forums like the Quad underscores its commitment to a free, open, and rules-based Indo-Pacific. However, India has maintained its strategic autonomy, ensuring that such alignments do not undermine its independent foreign policy choices. At the global level, India has assumed an increasingly assertive role, using platforms like the G20, BRICS, and the Voice of Global South Summit to champion issues of equity, climate justice, and inclusive growth.
REGIONAL CREDIBILITY
Still, India’s outreach is not without its shortcomings. Bureaucratic delays, limited institutional capacity, and occasional political spats have at times blunted the impact of its initiatives. Yet, recent trends indicate a growing recognition that India’s global aspirations must be underpinned by regional credibility. In this context, India’s focus on connectivity, people-centric development, and responsive diplomacy serves both strategic and normative purposes. Going forward, India’s regional policy must integrate hard security concerns with soft power engagement. Sustained credibility will depend not only on aid or investments but also on the quality of partnerships it nurtures. In a volatile and competitive regional order, India’s ability to lead through example by demonstrating consistency, responsiveness, and a commitment to shared values will determine its success in both regional and global arenas.
(Dr. Gadde Omprasad, Associate Professor, Centre for South Asian Studies, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University. The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The News Analytics Herald.)
Major Highlights
- India is transitioning from a regional to a consequential global power amid multipolar competition.
- Political instability, terrorism, Chinese influence, and strained ties with neighbours complicate India’s regional diplomacy.
- BRI investments and military assertiveness are eroding India’s traditional influence in South Asia and the IOR.
- Through the “Neighbourhood First” policy, Quad engagement, and regional forums, India balances development, security, and diplomacy.
- India must blend hard security with soft power to sustain credibility and global ambitions.
