By Ravi Srivastava
a 6 mins read.
Unrestrained Terror
When Hamas launched an unrestrained terror strike on Israel last October, little did we realise that the world has gravitated to an entirely new phenomenon of proxies causing a conventional war. This was exactly what unfolded, within no time Israel announced a state of war and truly it began as promised. Israel was determined for multiple reasons to have this incident go down in history as a major turning point in its relationship with Palestine and the larger Arab World. There were many other pressing questions that had emerged at that point in time especially the failure of famed Mossad or the limitations of, till then almost impregnable Iron Dome. However, what was shocking was the ‘almost official’ ownership by Iran a seemingly ‘third party’ for sanctioning this audacity.
Hamas is known as a dogged fighting group mixing popular Palestinian independence sentiments with barbaric terrorist operations. Flushed with funds it has an easy recruitment base within Gaza, such resources of having an unending supply of radicalised youth willing to die allows Hamas leadership a resource it feels sells very well in some countries, and we are talking of some staggering numbers. Statistics suggest a full-fledged new-age war between Armenia and Azerbaijan which lasted for 44 days, resulted in 7000 fatalities of Armenians and Azerbaijanis including civilians. As per the latest figures of BBC, Russia suffered casualties of 50000 servicemen as against 70000 Ukrainian personnel. A quick back of envelop calculation would give an average monthly fatalities figure of 4773 for Armenia and Azerbaijan, 4455 during Ukraine, and Russia war. Whereas for the Gaza war figure stands at 6428 in one month. These are all official figures while discounting inflated and deflated claims during the hostilities.
The matter of an extreme diabolic concern is Hamas a global terrorist organisation supposedly with its limitation of resources and geography has been withstanding the might of Israel. Not to forget, it is the same country that holds a record of sorts of defeating the combined Arab Army in the Six-Day War. How is that even possible? This is a baffling question for any war analyst. So something has changed as we watch history evolve, differentiative parameters have come into play which were not present earlier and hence the very changed outcome being witnessed in the world today – the phenomenon of proxies. These can be loosely referred to as mercenaries on hire and analysis suggests, that there is a clear pattern in this new progression!
Vying for Influence
Almost every country’s polity has some form of governance system in place which is managed by the local leadership, civilian or military included. The constitution or any other equivalent statute book gives the authority, direction, and responsibilities to these governments to manage their national affairs. However, when there is a clash of perceptions, which is inevitable, the resolution mechanism enshrined in the statute book gets tested. But if this fails, the beginning of conflicts commences.
The regional powers in most cases canvas their ground actions to showcase their ‘moral, political and diplomatic support’ for the greater cause of the very same people has created inhuman conditions for generations to suffer.
As the experience suggests more mature nations successfully manage their dissent within the framework but the same is not the fact with smaller states. This has been the genesis of trouble in most of the conflict-ridden countries in West Asia or Africa. The geopolitical yearnings of the global and regional powers make them end up choosing sides. A classic case of Syria, the country torn in pieces barely surviving with almost all global and regional powers actively undertaking military operations on behalf of one side or the other. The original dissenter of the domestic polity gets overwhelmed and replaced by a new narrative. The narrative of aspiring powers for whom the subject territory, its people, and their national resources become a mere means to demonstrate their influence.
It creates a non-ending loop of external actions and counter actions ruining the subject territory with unimaginable trauma. The land becomes the battleground of competitors who cannot spare a thought for the unspoken. These regional powers in most cases canvas their ground actions to showcase their ‘moral, political and diplomatic support’ for the greater cause of the very same people has created inhuman conditions for generations to suffer. The rest of the world then had to endure all avoidable conflicts, the International Crisis Group in its January 24 report listed 10 conflicts the world must watch for including Gaza, the Middle East, Sudan, Myanmar, Ethiopia, Africa’s Sahel region, and Haiti among others. The conflict zones may be changing but what remains constant is the incessant urge of competitive influence by the regional powers.
The ‘Third Party’
The proxies are characteristically very different than violent non-state actors or terrorists. The US Commission for Religious Freedom defines it as – “individuals, mobs, militant organisations who differ significantly in ideology, purpose, and end goals. They are generally motivated by a violent religious ideology.” In 2004 United Nations Security Council defined terrorists as – “those who use criminal acts that are intended to cause death or serious injury to civilians, with the purpose to intimidate a population or force a government to act.”
Proxies, on the other hand, can be state or violent non-state actors directly supported by a ‘third party’ who doesn’t want to participate in actual fighting but wants to influence the conflict’s outcome to advance their strategic interests. While it’s difficult to distinguish one violence from another as the end state is no different with the loss of innocent civilian lives what stands out is the role of the ‘third party’ which is at the root of all troubles.
The biggest hurdle in resolving global conflicts today is the strange ignorance of a deeply interested third party’s existence. Overlooking such a crucial factor will hardly lead to meaningful solutions. This third party uses unrestricted mechanisms, whether active or passive to meet their strategic goals. They offer monetary assistance, military means, training even participate with their covert forces. In more subtle scenarios they may undertake blockades, trade restrictions, apply threats of sanctions, or whatever way that works to pressurise opposing parties.
Allowing this catastrophe to manifest within a restricted territory is unimaginable and not right, but telling a democratic state, responsible for providing safety and honour to its people not to eliminate its fundamental threats is also incorrect.
Wrath of War
The principal issue here is the world cannot practically think of finding a resolution to conflicts till the time the problem of this ‘third party’ is taken care of. We will continue to witness more Gaza, more Yemen, and more Syria. Innocents will continue to bear the wrath of war from both ends losing women, children, and the elderly. At the same time, the world will find itself struggling with humanitarian assistance and ineffective attempts to contain the violence.
Allowing this catastrophe to manifest within a restricted territory is unimaginable and not right, but telling a democratic state, responsible for providing safety and honour to its people not to eliminate its fundamental threats is also incorrect. Sadly, the global community is unwilling to accept the truth hiding somewhere in between. In no time the world will find itself on the edge again with the likely eruption of more conventional wars, where just nothing appears right. The global intent is on test now, if it’s honest then they must call out these ‘third parties’ in all the global conflict zones as the real levers of resolutions are lying there!
–Ravi Srivastava
(The author, well experienced in the geopolitics and security aspects, regularly contributes to national publications.)
