Re-Emergence Of Attritional Warfare

Lt Gen(R) KJ Singh

a 6 mins read.

ONGOING WARS

The seemingly unending imbroglio in Ukraine, triggered off on 27th Feb 2014 is in its eleventh year and in all probability will drag on. In this long and festering war, the current round, beginning on 24th Feb 22, described as Special Military Operations to ‘de-militarise and de-nazify’ Ukraine is still to achieve its original, stated objectives or even much scaled-down, albeit, guess-estimated ones due to Russia not specifying them. Wars or conflicts fester in many global hot spots like Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Iraq, Yemen, Syria, Somalia, Libya, the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Myanmar, Colombia, and Mali.

The latest to join this list of global hot spots is the Israel-Gaza conflict, initiated by an audacious raid by Hamas on 7th Oct 2023. While the nature of war tends to be largely unaltered, its character and form are ever-evolving. It is appropriate to reiterate Carl Von Clausewitz’s definition in his seminal work- On War, “ clash of actively opposed wills comprised of violence, chance, and rational thought. Most ongoing wars and conflicts seem to be a result of irrationality or vitiated rationality and placing misplaced faith in ‘chance’. At stake are issues of territory, access, resources, belief and ideology coupled with issues of hegemony and control, driven by ego and even megalomania.  

NEW POSERS

Modern technology has resulted in enhanced precision (accuracy) and lethality. This has been accompanied by a quantified and package approach fuelled by statistical and net-assessment tools. Contemporary experts have touted an ability to structure discrete (in time and space) and somewhat surgical wars or even interventions in conflicts. These resulted in the propagation of the theory of short and swift wars and limited conflicts. In a typical scenario, it outlined an opening gambit of gaining aerial dominance/superiority coupled with maritime blockade/exclusion. This was to be followed by largely land offensive entailing swift manoeuvres, aided by air support of intimate variety like attack helicopters. 

In essence, total newer genres of imposing will are manifesting in the form of proxy, irregular, hybrid wars/conflicts. They are also transcending beyond terrestrial, maritime, aerial, and sub-surface, tunnels to newer domains of cyber, space, information, cognitive and autonomous warfare. Non-kinetic and even coercive posturing, just short of precipitate initiation of fire-power, like the ongoing stand-off in Ladakh and the South China Sea are new forms of manifestations.  Ongoing conflicts and wars, especially the Ukranian war have generated numerous trends and few posers.  

The famed Russian military-industrial complex has been forced to seek arms and munitions from North Korea. Similarly, Pakistani shells have been sourced from Ukraine. 

EMERGING MACRO TRENDS 

It is important to reiterate the macro trends: – 

• Application of kinetic force has limited utility in the attainment of objectives and effects. Russian Special Military Operations despite the passage of more than two years, similarly Israel may be getting into a quagmire despite eight months of brutal campaign. USA’s exit from Afghanistan and re-installation of the Taliban regime further validate this maxim.  
• Realistic and clearly defined objectives and end state along with exit options must be devised when force application is unavoidable. De-militarisation and de-Nazification of Ukraine at best is fuzzy. Similarly, the elimination of Hamas or Taliban seems impractical as these are fuelled by ideologies.   
• The new normal in war fighting is- long, festering conflicts/wars with indeterminate outcomes, often tapering off into hybrid war/insurgencies. The duration, festering and unresolved nature of multiple conflicts/wars in the Middle East and North Africa exemplify this trend.  
• No defence line is impregnable; quick response and resilience are the key. Famed defence lines like Maginot, Siegfried, Berlin Wall Barlev and most recently Gaza Barrier have been breached. The situation got worse as the Israeli Defence Force response was tardy and inadequate.  
• Timely analysis of information and surveillance to convert it into opportune, actionable intelligence is most important. The trend with multiple validations needs to be incorporated post-haste. In our context, intelligence failures in Kargil and recently in Ladakh in 2020 are relevant.  
• Resilience in logistics mandates a ‘whole of nation approach’ and civil-military fusion with dual-use technologies. The famed Russian military-industrial complex has been forced to seek arms and munitions from North Korea. Similarly, Pakistani shells have been sourced from Ukraine.  Adaption and fielding of Elon Musk’s “Star Links”, satellite terminals by Ukraine demonstrate the utility of Commercial Off the Shelf Technologies (COTS). 
• There can be no silver bullet or ultimate weapon, synergistic application of combined arms, backed by smart logistics is mandated. Misplaced reliance by Russians on unsupported tank columns and the high attrition suffered by them validate this trend.  
• Technological asymmetry is temporary and contested and human capital still has relevance, especially in high-altitude warfare and insurgencies. Fielding of Drones and their disruptive effects, followed by fielding of protection measures like fitment of cages on tanks and fielding anti-drone armaments are indicative.   
• Private militias and mercenaries are becoming important contributors to the human resource pool.  Wagner Militia and soldiers recruited from countries like India, Nepal and others have been utilised by Russia. Similarly, a large number of experts from Western countries are operating with Ukranian forces.  
• Isolation of nuclear installations in battle space requires immediate attention. In the Ukrainian conflict, battles have raged around Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.  
• Quest to acquire nuclear weapons is likely to amplify. Ukraine, now feels that voluntarily giving up its nuclear arsenal was a big and suicidal mistake.   
• Security alliances have limited hedging value. Despite NATO, Ukraine couldn’t deter the Russian offensive.  
• There is a need to evolve a national consensus on key security challenges and promulgate a national security strategy. Israel is witnessing a marked internal divide due to a lack of clarity on its objectives.  
• Narrative warfare and cognitive shaping are emerging trends. They require structures and organization for prosecution. This has been adequately applied by Ukraine. 
• Conflicts are imminent in newer domains like cyber, space and autonomous warfare incorporating AI. Some of these are on the threshold of being operationalised, however, cyber warfare is already being utilized.   
• Sanctions have limited utility yet they are a growing ingredient of geo-economic contestations. Sanctions on Russia and Iran are being bypassed to a considerable extent.  
• Geo-economic contests are evident in energy and connectivity. Ongoing conflicts have spurred the re-alignment of some Belt and Road Initiative ((BRI) corridors, the impetus to ongoing International North-South (INST) and conceptualization of new ones like the India Middle East Corridor (IMEC).  

Emerging trends need to be validated and customized against the backdrop of historical context, and objective Strength-Challenges-Opportunities-Threats (SCOT) analysis.

INDIAN CONTEXT  

India, notwithstanding, her professed themes of non-alignment, and peaceful co-existence, based on non-aggression has been at the receiving end of multiple wars and festering conflicts. These wars have left unresolved borders in the shape of a Line of Control (LoC) and Actual Ground Position Line (AGPL) with Pakistan and a Line of Actual Control (LAC) with China. This apart both neighbours are operating in collusion and Pakistan has gifted a large tract of territory in Shaksgam Valley to China. India has also faced insurgencies and separatist movements in the hinterland (Left Wing Extremism) and in border states of North East, Punjab and J&K. 

These have been aided and abetted by Pakistan and China, giving them proxy war character. Consequently, the main focus shifted to counter-terrorism with conventional war as an unlikely possibility, which is now being reviewed for a more balanced approach.  Capacities are being ramped up to face longer conflicts instead of the previous template of short and swift wars of 10-14 days duration. Pakistan’s front had been receiving skewed and disproportionate attention till Ladakh’s face-off, which forced the designation of China as the primary adversary.  

Emerging trends need to be validated and customized against the backdrop of historical context, and objective Strength-Challenges-Opportunities-Threats (SCOT) analysis, to draw appropriate lessons for incorporating them in doctrines and training methodologies.  Taking heed of emerging trends, India has embarked on multiple measures to cope with multi-spectral challenges. 

The major initiatives include, first rebalancing deployment to boost force level on Northern Front opposite China. Second, accelerating push towards theatrisation and transformation. Third, expedite the building of border infrastructure.  Fourth, push for Atam-Nirbharata (self-reliance) and modernisation.  Fifth, revise the ammunition stocking level and open armament and ammunition manufacturing to private entities. It is appropriate to quote Winston Churchill, “Those that fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.” 

(Lt Gen(R) KJ Singh, Former Western Army Commander and State Information Commissioner. He was Maharaja Ranjit Singh Chair Prof in PU & is Hony Prof currently in PU & CU. Regular columnist & commentator on National Security. The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The News Analytics Journal)