Despite several multilateral attempts to reach a solution, Libya’s conflict remains unabated. Among the major international players in Libya, India and China are moving from the background to increasing prominence, poised to advance their interests regardless of which Libyan faction triumphs on the ground.
By Ambassador Soumen Ray
a 5 mins read.
The Indian government has taken a decisive and bold step by reopening its embassy in Libya. It was closed five years ago due to severe security concerns. A resident Charge d’Affairs is in situ now with skeletal officials. Our decision to restart the embassy in Tripoli is a calculated one. The government there still controls the Central Bank of Libya, giving it the ability to deploy funds, sign contracts, and distribute capital to partners, all of which are necessary for any viable partner for us in Libya.
Libya is located in the northern gate of Africa. India and China are active members seeking to play an essential role there. Besides its geo-strategic significance, Libya is an important nation for both countries’ energy security.
Image Courtesy: Libyan News Agency
At a crucial time when balancing competing interests, the path of least resistance is most practical—and, often, that is to remain neutral. Considering the above facts, India and China were critical of the NATO-led military intervention in Libya back in 2011, on the ground that civilians would be affected. And so, they abstained from voting in the UNSCR 1973, authorising military action to stabilise the civil war in the country. They have many vested economic interests there. Observing how Libya’s fractured landscape has thwarted outside attempts to pick sides, India and China have pursued a policy of cautious neutrality and diplomatic and economic diversification.
ILLUSIVE SOLUTION
Despite several multilateral attempts to reach a solution, Libya’s conflict remains unabated. Among the major international players in Libya, India and China are moving from the background to increasing prominence, poised to advance their interests regardless of which Libyan faction triumphs on the ground.
India has been closely monitoring the unfolding situation in Libya constantly. The regime in Libya needs to be a friendly one since Libya is an oil rich country and political instability could affect Indian industrial investments and energy security interests there. Indian companies, especially in the hydrocarbon, power, construction and IT sectors, have several ongoing projects there. Under the circumstances, public and private sector entities are active for the last few years exploring ways and means to revive their once-lucrative ventures in that war-torn country.
On its part, Libyan policy makers are also in the lookout for trusted development partners. They are certainly not considering the countries who had and are still sending mercenaries or conducting airstrikes—like the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt indirectly supported by the west, and Russia. India is not among those bevy of great and middle powers involved in Libya, so they have been reaching out to India in a proactive manner.
Libya is not the first war-racked country in which China has pursued narrow economic gains instead of backing a particular faction or trying to end the conflict.
REACTIVATING INDIAN MISSION
In fact, the decision to reactivate the Indian mission in Tripoli was announced following a meeting at the ministry of external affairs, New Delhi between the Undersecretary for Political Affairs at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in the Government of National Unity (GNU), with the minister of state for external affairs and other concerned officers. The Libyan side is eager to activate all agreements and MoUs concluded earlier between the two friendly countries, most notably the activation of the Political Consultation Committee and, to work on convening the Libyan-Indian Joint Committee. Furthermore, next steps to further strengthen cooperation between the two nations have also been identified. This paved the way for bilateral cooperation in various fields.
Official reestablishment of our bilateral diplomatic relations has been preceded by meetings in Tripoli between Libyan and Indian officials of Interior (Home) in August 2023 followed by the signing in June this year of an agreement between Misrata Chamber of Commerce and Indian Economic and Trade Organization (IETO). The framework of cooperation is to enhance trade and investment opportunities for the members of the two parties.
ONGC and Indian Oil Corporation, who have high stakes in the hydrocarbon sector in the oil-rich country, with 30% of its oil reserve areas still remaining unexplored, are upbeat now. They have expressed their keen interest to restart their operations there. Other Indian stakeholders are also eager to resume their activities. Around 3000 Indians are presently engaged in various blue collar jobs in Libya.
Libya is not the first war-racked country in which China has pursued narrow economic gains instead of backing a particular faction or trying to end the conflict. In Iraq, Yemen, and Syria, China has avoided alignment with rival factions while maintaining its ability to compete for post-conflict contracts.
Important Gateway
China was an important trading partner and one of the major sources of imports for Libya. Major Chinese oil companies controlled a large number of oil fields there. China had 75 companies conducting roughly $18.8 billion worth of business in Libya. Now, China not only intends to position itself as a key global player committed to international development and peace by playing a key role in Libyan recovery, its location at the crossroads of Africa, Europe and the Middle East would provide an important gateway for Chinese investments into the broader region, enhancing China’s belt and road objectives. They have a military base in Djibouti operated by China’s People’s Liberation Army- Navy (PLAN) and plan to build a military base in Oman.
Beijing also has an interest in maintaining its recently strengthened diplomatic and economic relations with countries in the Middle East and Africa, thus, furthering its agenda for a multi-polar world in order to counter US and NATO hegemony. Along with India and Russia, this was vocalized in the recent BRICS summit in Vietnam. This objective could be achieved through infrastructure, development, and other investments in Libya and the African continent in general, which is slated to be the continent of prosperity of this century.
For its part, the GNU (Government of National Unity, Western Libya) has welcomed Chinese engagement, especially in areas like the upgrading and rebuilding of Libya’s infrastructure—an essential long-term concern for the GNU, evidenced by its embrace of China’s telecommunications companies, including Huawei and ZTE.
Should the Khalifa Haftar-aligned government in the east and parts of the south (led by Osama Hammad in Benghazi) establish its own hard-currency accounts or prevail over the GNU in financial capacity, China would likely bolster its relationship with the eastern-based government as well. It has already begun eyeing deals with Haftar and has been keeping economic channels open. China’s neutrality and deep pockets make it an attractive prospect for both the GNU and the eastern administration. For now, it is unlikely that either side will push back on China’s nonalignment policy in Libya.
FRAGILE AND UNRESOLVED
For quite some time Chinese officials and members of the now defunct Libya’s National Transition Council have been negotiating China’s return to Libya. During GNU Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah’s visit to China in May this year, it was the main topic of discussion with his Chinese counterpart. However, noting the trend of targeted assassinations of Chinese workers engaged in developmental projects in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan, Beijing needs to review its policy of physical involvement of Chinese people in similar conflict zones abroad. So for China, the present situation in Libya is like a fly in the pudding.
India having not taken any side in the conflict between the two parties, could play a mediating role in resolving the disagreements
The overall situation in Libya continues to be fragile and not conducive for running business as usual since the key economic and security issues are still unresolved. The long awaited agreement under the auspicious of the UN Support Mission in Libya between the internationally recognized Government of National Unity (GNU) with its capital in Tripoli and the eastern administration under the control of the warlord Khalifa Haftar, Commander of the Libyan National Army, based in Tobruk, which is in the eastern part of Libya, is still evasive. Under the circumstances, India having not taken any side in the conflict between the two parties, could play a mediating role in resolving the disagreements, especially at a time when Haftar’s Libyan National Army’s losing the battle for control of Tripoli and with diminishing foreign assistance from its war-weary supporters.
With reactivating its embassy in Tripoli let us watch how India navigates the complex currents of Libya. If it can play a constructive role, India will certainly have an edge over China whose economic and geo-strategic stakes in Libya are higher than those of India.
(Ambassador Soumen Ray, IFS (Retd.), Former Indian Ambassador and the noted Columnist on current world affairs. The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The News Analytics Journal)
