The evolving global order is being shaped by an intensifying arms race, marked by protracted conflicts and strategic rivalries. From Ukraine to Gaza, military-industrial complexes are thriving on persistent instability. India, amid regional threats, has made notable strides in defence exports and self-reliance. As nations race to modernise, the spotlight shifts to emerging technologies, partnerships, and indigenous innovation to achieve sustainable security and strategic autonomy.
BY LT GEN KJ SINGH (RETD) FOR NEWS ANALYTICS
a 5 mins read.
The world is increasingly witnessing festering and long-drawn conflicts like the Ukraine-Russia war, in its third year and Israel’s Gaza offensive, now in its nineteenth month. Even where conflicts are currently capped, like in Syria, Armenia-Azerbaijan, they are accompanied by uneasy calm and preparation for the next round. As noted, strategic analysts, in most conflicts, while there are no victors or vanquished but the biggest gainer or the real winner is the Military Industrial Complex (MIC). These conflicts, even if short and paused, like Operation “Sindoor” / “Bunyan Al-Marsoos” have been characterised by the employment of high-tech weaponry like drones, missiles, loitering munitions, air-defence (AD) shields and surveillance systems.
GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE
Globally respected think-tank, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) in its annual 2025 report, flagged a significant increase in military expenditure, reaching US$ $2.718 trillion in 2024, approximating to 9.4% increase from the previous year. In effect, it is the largest year-on-year rise since the end of geo-political rivalry, during the Cold War in 1991. The list is topped by five nations – United States, China, Russia, Germany, and India. These five top spenders accounted for nearly 60% of global military expenditure. USA was right on top with a 37% share, China was next with 12%, and these two alone spent nearly half of the total expenditure.
Translated in GDP metric, expenditure accounted for nearly 2.5% of global GDP. Analysing regional templates, expenditure increased in all regions and most notably in Europe and the Middle East. Turkey emerged as a significant arms exporter with its advancement in niche disruptive technologies like Bayraktar-TB2 drones. South Korea has become another important manufacturer in land, air and marine systems.
A very large part of the outlay was on exports and imports, which remained the same over the last two comparative five-year cycles between 2015-2019 and 2024. However, it registered an increase of 18%, in comparison to the 2005-2009 five-year cycle. Ukraine emerged as the largest importer due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war; India followed as the second.
Conflicts are not only boosting the order books of armament industries but are also providing real-life combat conditions. It has also catalysed the adoption of commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) technologies like the Starlink satellite terminals. As a parallel development, a large number of backyard start-ups have sprung up in Ukraine and Europe to develop low-tech and cost-effective drones/quad-copters. Indiscriminate destructions has created an urgent requirement to replenish war reserves before the next round, adding to order books.
SIPRI’s 2025 report highlights the highest-ever global military spending at $2.718 trillion, with India among the top five global spenders and the second-largest importer.
INDIA-STATUS CHECK
India was ranked as the fifth largest spender and second in imports. In the year-on-year comparison, there was a 1.6% increase in expenditure over the previous year, 2023, largely driven by the Chinese threat. Notwithstanding these rankings, India managed to reduce its import expenditure by 9.3%, powered by the sustained push for Atmanirbharata (self-reliance). India has also made rapid progress in exports, in past ten years, defence exports have gone up from ₹ 686 crores in 2013-14 to ₹ 21,083 crores in 2023-24 and ₹ 23,622 crores (approximately US $2.8 billion), in 2024-25, registering 35% increase from 2022-23. There has been a 31-fold increase in exports over ten years from 2013-14.
Initially, the product mix was limited to artillery munitions, bullet-proof jackets, a few interceptor crafts and Dornier transport aircraft. There was a significant increase in exports due to the Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict and the Russia-Ukraine War. India has added 155 mm artillery guns, Akash SAM systems and Brahmos super-sonic cruise missiles to its export list. The biggest order was $375 million for three Brahmos Coastal Defence batteries from the Philippines. It is also learnt that Vietnam and Indonesia have expressed interest in acquiring missile systems. It is also heartening that 60% of exports are now from the private sector and 40% from public sector enterprises. As many as 100 companies are involved in exports to 90-odd countries.
India is targeting ₹50,000 crores (US$ 5.9 billion) defence exports by 2029-30. Significant steps are TATA’s partnership with Airbus for manufacturing C-295 transportation aircraft, and government’s decision to allow the private sector in Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) project.
CHINESE SHADOW
China has emerged as the trend-setter in reducing its imports, most significantly. Starting with largely Soviet origin equipment, it has used a multi-lateral path of cloning, adaptive cloning and independent development to become not only largely self-reliant but also a major exporter, especially to developing nations. Chinese equipment is in service in India’s neighbourhood to include Pakistan, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Nepal and the Maldives. This gives PLA presence through life-cycle support, repairs and training. In Pakistan China’s NORINCO has set up Heavy Industries Taxilla for licensed production of Haider (VT-4) and joint production of platforms like Al-Khalid and Al-Zarar tanks. Similarly, Pakistan Aeronautical Complex Kamra boasts of the joint production of JF-17 variants. Integration displayed by Pakistan with Chinese systems in the recent Operation Sindoor, particularly the use of PL-15 missiles, needs to be taken note of.
OPERATION SINDOOR
India fielded a complex mix of French, Russian, Israeli and American aircraft, AD systems, drones, munitions, along with indigenous platforms and systems. It is to the credit of our defence technical experts that they were integrated under the indigenously developed Integrated Air Command and Control System (IACCS), Akash-Teer AD system. Brahmos super-sonic cruise missiles, Akash AD missiles, Skystryker drones, Netra AWACS and Counter Unmanned Aerial System (CUAS) excelled. India also customised legacy AD systems like L-70 and ZU-23 with optoelectronic sights. Pakistan on it’s part fielded a mix of Chinese, US and Turkish equipment.
FUNDAMENTAL RULES
Self-reliance is a long-term, tedious process. It can be aided by genuine technology partnerships, coupled with achieving the technology threshold in critical areas. An incremental and collaborative approach is the way forward. Brahmos, a joint project with Russia, is currently only 76% indigenous and likely to reach 85%; hence, sometimes, it is smart to be the lead integrator and not focus on 100% indigenous content. In certain niche areas, disruptive weapons like Bayraktar drones have given Turkey significant leverage. We need to emulate this approach.
Developing dual-use disruptive technologies like Starlink can redress technology asymmetry as evidenced in the Ukrainian conflict. Technology transfers preclude core and critical source codes. Hence, in Transfer of Technology, it is largely ‘produce to design’, at best, passing of ‘know-how’ but most rarely ‘know-why’. There are unconfirmed reports of France refusing to share source codes of Rafael aircraft, thereby limiting integration with indigenous weapons/ munitions. Reverse engineering is abundantly used, notably by China and Iran to clone crude versions of advanced weapons. The most important rule is that there are no free lunches.
India’s defence export surge, backed by Atmanirbharata, reflects a strategic shift with 100 companies exporting to 90 nations, wherein private sector accounting for 60% share.
CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES
As per the US Congressional report drawing on reputed sources like SIPRI, India is the largest importer of armaments in value terms, accounting for approximately 10% of global imports, from 2008 to 2023, in a 15-year cycle. Russian origin equipment accounts for 62%, declining from 76%. Other top suppliers are- France (11%), USA (10%) and Israel (7%). India’s biggest challenge, as flagged by the Air Chief in the recent CII Conclave, is the inability of DRDO and DPSUs to realise planned deadlines, Tejas and MBT Arjuna being striking examples.
Failure of the Kaveri program for aero-engines translated to reliance on US F-404/414. Supply of F-404 was delayed, slowing down the Tejas program. Even Apache attack-helicopter delivery is pending. Similarly, a delay in the supply of Ukrainian marine gas-turbines has caused significant delays in the induction of naval platforms. In case of power-packs for tanks, German MTU failed to supply 800HP engines for Zorawar, forcing the switch to American 760HP Cummins. Even the Shakti engine for helicopters is a collaborative effort with Safran. A national engine mission/challenge is long overdue.
India deploys the largest fleet of T-90 tanks, even larger than Russia. We also have the largest operational inventory of C-17-Globe-Master and P8I-Poseidon aircraft outside the USA. The sheer size of Indian inventories provides an opportunity, as no major arms producer wants to be left out in this lucrative market. It is also the most appropriate global/ regional hub for Maintenance, Repairs, Overhaul and warehousing.
USSR: Indian experience with the Soviet Union has been mixed. Equipment is robust and relatively economical, but notch below the cutting-edge. Russia has been benign in its early years, accepting rupees and even commodity payment. They have also leased strategic platforms like Chakra submarines, enabling the Arihant series. Notwithstanding the foregoing, many ToTs have really meant licensed production, with even annual capping on numbers and spare parts supply has been unreliable.
US: It follows to government route, under Foreign Military Sales (FMS). American equipment is cutting-edge, with reliable support, but expensive. Only limited trials are allowed; offsets are difficult and possible only in peripherals. Source codes are not shared, obviating customisation and have strict End User restrictions. The USA also has the Countering American Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). India managed a rare waiver for S-400 AD systems from Russia.
WAY FORWARD
It is time to realistically review the 42 Squadron target and bolster air power with drones and surveillance, transitioning to a manned-unmanned mix. Integration of diverse equipment and upgradation of legacy platforms are key challenges. PM Narendra Modi-National visit rolled out ambitious programs like- Catalysing Opportunities for Military Partnership, Accelerated Commerce and Technology (COMPACT) and Transforming Relationships Utilising Strategic Technology (TRUST). Our challenge is to side-step the traps like the F-35 offer and seek avenues for indigenous capability building and Smart Atam-Nirbharata through meaningful technology transfers.
(Lt Gen KJ Singh (R), Former Western Army Commander and State Information Commissioner. He was Maharaja Ranjit Singh Chair Prof in PU & is Hony Prof currently in PU & CU. Regular columnist & commentator on National Security. The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The News Analytics Journal.)
Major Highlights
- Global defence budgets rose 9.4% in 2024 amid growing global conflicts.
- India, still top arms importer, saw exports surge 31-fold to ₹23,622 crores.
- China’s self-reliance, defence exports push India to boost indigenous capabilities, strategic autonomy.
- India integrated diverse weapons, but engine development and platform induction face delays.
- India should pursue selective indigenisation, smart partnerships, and defence ecosystem reforms strategically.
