Lebanon, a historically diverse nation, is grappling with severe economic collapse, political dysfunction, and regional tensions. Its currency has plummeted, poverty has surged, and political paralysis persists, exacerbated by sectarian divisions and external influences like Iran and Saudi Arabia. Hezbollah’s dominance, Saudi Arabia’s waning influence, and the Syrian refugee crisis further strain the country.
NADIA HALLAK, BEIRUT, LEBANON ARAB CORRESPONDENT, THE NEWS ANALYTICS JOURNAL
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Lebanon, a small yet culturally rich nation in the Middle East, has historically been a melting pot of diverse religious and ethnic groups. Over the decades, it has become a microcosm of the larger geopolitical and sectarian rivalries playing out across the region. In recent years, Lebanon has found itself in the throes of economic collapse, political instability, and escalating tensions from the influence of foreign powers. This situation has left Lebanon struggling for survival, its future hanging in the balance as it faces both internal and external pressures. This essay will delve into the current state of Lebanon, the impact of regional rivalries on the country, the challenges it faces, and the steps that need to be taken to restore stability and normalcy.
A NATION IN CRISIS
Lebanon is currently enduring one of the most severe economic crises in modern history. The World Bank has described the situation as one of the three worst economic collapses globally since the mid-19th century. Lebanon’s economy, once a thriving hub of tourism, banking, and commerce, has been shattered by years of corruption, mismanagement, and political instability.
In 2020, the Lebanese pound lost over 90% of its value, plunging the country into hyperinflation and driving an alarming increase in poverty levels. Today, more than 80% of the population lives below the poverty line, facing severe shortages of essential goods such as food, electricity, and medicine. The collapse of the currency and the resulting financial crisis have paralyzed the country’s financial institutions and created a dire humanitarian situation.
The economic downturn is further exacerbated by a dysfunctional political system. Lebanon’s political structure, based on a sectarian power-sharing arrangement designed to balance the interests of its diverse religious groups, has instead fostered corruption, nepotism, and inefficiency. The political system, divided between Sunni, Shia, and Christian factions, often results in gridlock and stagnation, with external powers like Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Syria exerting influence through local proxies. Since the end of Lebanon’s 15-year civil war in 1990, this arrangement has often prevented effective governance and exacerbated Lebanon’s inability to address its mounting crises.
Zakaria El Ghoul, Ph.D., an expert in modern history, noted in an interview with The News Analytics Journal that Lebanon’s political paralysis has prevented necessary reforms. The political elite, entrenched in their positions for decades, have consistently failed to implement the structural changes needed to restore public trust in government institutions.
Lebanon’s current struggles are further compounded by the aftermath of the Syrian civil war and the 2020 Beirut port explosion. The explosion, one of the largest non-nuclear blasts in history, devastated the capital, destroyed vital infrastructure, and deepened the public’s distrust of the government, which many blamed for negligence. Since then, the government’s inability to form a stable and functional administration has left Lebanon adrift, exacerbating the country’s economic and social crises.
REGIONAL RIVALRY
Lebanon’s position at the crossroads of Middle Eastern geopolitics has made it a focal point for external powers vying for influence. The ongoing rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia has significantly shaped Lebanon’s political landscape, often to the detriment of its stability.
Iran and Hezbollah: Iran wields considerable influence in Lebanon through Hezbollah, the Shia militant and political organization. Formed in response to the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982, Hezbollah has grown into a powerful political and military entity. The group exerts control over much of southern Lebanon and maintains a wide network of supporters, not just within Lebanon but across the broader Shia community in the region. Hezbollah’s military strength and political influence have allowed Iran to project power in Lebanon, positioning the country as a critical piece in its broader regional strategy.
Hezbollah’s dominance has been a source of tension both domestically and internationally. Domestically, its military capabilities operate independently of the Lebanese Armed Forces, effectively creating a parallel state and undermining Lebanon’s sovereignty. Internationally, Hezbollah’s presence increases tensions with Israel, which views the organisation as a direct threat due to its proximity and its support for anti-Israeli operations.
Lebanon’s political system is based on sectarian separation of power. Promotes corruption and inefficiency. This has further destabilized Lebanon through external influences such as Iran and Saudi Arabia. And the crisis that Hezbollah dominates has not yet been resolved.
Saudi Arabia’s Counterbalance: On the opposite side of the regional rivalry, Saudi Arabia has sought to counter Iranian influence in Lebanon, historically backing the Sunni community, represented by figures like Saad Hariri and his Future Movement party. Riyadh’s involvement in Lebanon is part of its larger regional strategy aimed at curbing Iranian influence, especially in countries with sizable Shia populations like Lebanon and Iraq.
However, Saudi Arabia’s influence has waned in recent years. This is partly due to the inability of its Sunni allies to effectively challenge Hezbollah’s dominance. Moreover, Saudi Arabia’s focus has shifted towards domestic projects under its Vision 2030 plan, which has led to a reduction in financial aid and political involvement in Lebanon. This has allowed Iran to deepen its foothold, exacerbating Lebanon’s sectarian and political divides.
The Syrian Conflict and Refugees: The Syrian civil war has also played a significant role in Lebanon’s instability. Lebanon shares a porous border with Syria, and the war has frequently spilled over into Lebanese territory, with armed groups and militias operating in the border regions. Moreover, Lebanon hosts over 1.5 million Syrian refugees, placing immense pressure on its already strained resources.
NAVIGATING TURMOIL
Lebanon’s survival as a functional state is threatened by a multitude of political, economic, and social challenges. These challenges are interconnected and have deepened the country’s crisis:
The sectarian-based power-sharing system has resulted in a weak central government, incapable of making swift decisions or implementing essential reforms. Political parties, often aligned with religious sects, prioritise their interests over national unity, leading to frequent deadlock. This dysfunction has made it difficult to address the economic collapse or rebuild the nation after the Beirut explosion.
The Lebanese economy is in freefall. Hyperinflation, mass unemployment, and a collapsing currency have driven much of the population into poverty. The financial sector, which once thrived, has been paralyzed by the lack of liquidity, and Lebanon’s banking system is teetering on the edge of collapse. International bodies like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have offered assistance, but they require comprehensive reforms—reforms that Lebanon’s political elite have so far resisted or been unable to enact.
Hezbollah’s status as a state within a state continues to complicate Lebanon’s efforts to achieve internal stability. Its role as an armed militia involved in proxy conflicts against Israel increases the risk of wider regional conflict. Frequent Israeli airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon heighten the possibility of escalation, which would further destabilize the country.
Saudi Arabia’s influence in Lebanon has weakened due to internal centralisation and declining support. As Iran’s presence increases Lebanon is plagued by political disorder. Economic collapse social division and tensions between Hezbollah and Israel.
REBUILDING LEBANON
Restoring normalcy in Lebanon requires a multifaceted approach that addresses its political, economic, and social challenges. Lebanon needs to reform its sectarian-based political system. A move towards a more merit-based, inclusive political system would help reduce corruption and promote national unity. Transparency and accountability should be prioritized, and officials responsible for the current crises must be held accountable.
Economic reforms are crucial. Tackling corruption, mismanagement, and the entrenched patronage networks that have dominated Lebanon’s economy for decades is essential. Lebanon must also engage seriously with international organizations like the IMF to secure financial aid and negotiate debt restructuring.
Hezbollah’s dual role as a political party and armed group must be addressed. A national dialogue aimed at integrating Hezbollah’s military apparatus into the Lebanese Armed Forces or disbanding its militia is necessary to restore Lebanon’s sovereignty. International mediation, particularly involving Iran and Saudi Arabia, will be critical to achieving this goal.
Lebanon’s recovery will depend on strong international support. This support must come with conditions that ensure aid reaches those in need rather than being siphoned off by corrupt elites. International actors must continue to pressure Lebanon to implement political and economic reforms while offering financial and diplomatic assistance.
Lebanon’s path to recovery is undoubtedly difficult, but it is not impossible. By addressing its deep-rooted political dysfunction, economic collapse, and entanglement in regional rivalries, Lebanon can begin the long and arduous process of rebuilding. Success will require both internal resolve and external support, as the country seeks to extricate itself from the crossfire of regional conflicts and restore peace and stability for its citizens. The resilience of the Lebanese people, coupled with a willingness to embrace change, will be the cornerstone of the nation’s recovery.
(Nadia Hallak, senior correspondent and distinguished journalist from Beirut, Lebanon. She has extensively worked in the Arab region. She covers major developments in the Arab world for TNJ. The views expressed by the author and any guest experts do not necessarily reflect the views of The News Analytics Journal.)
