The relationship between the United States and China began to decline in the 2010s, with the Trump administration accelerating this trend. Various factors contributed, including changes in leadership in both countries, shifts in power dynamics after the 2007–2008 global financial crisis, and China’s increased ambition to reform global governance institutions and assume a more prominent global leadership role.
AMBASSADOR SUSHIL KUMAR SINGHAL, IFS (RETD) FOR THE NEWS ANALYTICS JOURNAL
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The relationship between the United States and China has been characterised by a complex interplay of cooperation and competition since the establishment of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in 1949. USA refused to recognize the PRC as China’s legitimate government but despite official non-recognition, the United States and the PRC held 136 meetings at the ambassadorial level beginning in 1954 and continuing until 1970, first in Geneva and 1958–1970 in Warsaw.
Communications between Chinese and American leaders were conducted through Romania, Pakistan and Poland as intermediaries. A pivotal moment came in 1971 when U.S. National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger conducted a secret visit to Beijing, paving the way for President Richard Nixon’s historic visit in 1972. This marked a significant shift in U.S.-China relations, culminating in the formal establishment of diplomatic ties in 1979.
PERSISTENT ISSUES
Throughout the following decades, the U.S. and China engaged in extensive dialogue on global and regional strategic concerns, such as climate change and the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons. By the late 1980s, as a consequence of high-level and working-level contacts duly complemented by Track 1.5 and Track 2 Dialogues numbering over 30, the two countries had become significant partners, China was the US’s largest partner for science and technology, which had become the largest type of government-to-government exchange between the two countries. China is the second largest foreign creditor of the United States, after Japan.
The bilateral relationship also extended to regional issues, particularly regarding North Korea’s nuclear program. China’s actions, including voting to refer North Korea’s noncompliance to the UN Security Council, demonstrated a shared interest in regional stability.
But there remain perennial concerns as well, such as human rights in China, as well as cross-strait relations and the US’s attitude towards the One China policy. China’s expansion in the Indo-Pacific has triggered pushback from the US and its partners in the region. The two countries remain in dispute over territorial issues in the South China Sea.
POST-COLD WAR SHIFTS
The end of the Cold War and the dissolution of the Soviet Union altered the strategic dynamics between the U.S. and China. The presidency of Donald Trump led to a decisive negative shift in US relations with China. In 2017, the Trump administration terminated the Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade (JCCT) between China and the United States. The JCCT had met annually from 1983 to 2016 and had been a generally effective mechanism to address various trade issues between the two countries . The Trump administration also terminated the Strategic and Economic Dialogue after holding the June 2017 meeting.
According to experts on US-China relations, Rosemary Foot and Amy King, the consensus of experts is: “The relationship began to deteriorate in the second decade of the 21st century, and that the Trump administration has accelerated the deterioration. Explanations have ranged over a large number of factors, all of which have played some role. Some relate to changes in official personnel in both the United States and China, others to the shifts and relative power between the two countries after the global financial crisis of 2007–2008, and yet others to China’s greater determination to reform global governance institutions and to play more of a global leadership role.”
The consequences of the breakdown in US-China relations are going to be very grave for the world and for the global economy because the ability of the USA and China to work together was the keystone of the whole arch of globalisation and global trade. With that pulled out, there’s going to be a tremendous amount of disturbance, often compared to the Cold War.
The U.S.-China relationship has evolved from early diplomatic efforts in 1949 to cooperation on strategic issues, but recent tensions, especially during the Trump era, have strained economic and political ties.
QUIET NEGOTIATIONS
Backchannel diplomacy has played a crucial role in managing U.S.-China relations, particularly during times of high tension. Since U.S. National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger’s secret visit to China in 1971, the United States has employed this discreet approach to ease tensions between the two nations several times. Compared to formal diplomacy, backroom diplomacy often yields unexpected positive outcomes as its high level of secrecy fosters an environment conducive to more efficient and flexible negotiations.
While the backchannel has not resolved the fundamental issues between the rival superpowers, says Rorry Daniels, a China expert at the Asia Society Policy Institute, it has aided each’s understanding of the other. “It’s been very successful in short-term stabilisation, communicating red lines and previewing actions that might be seen as damaging to the other side,”
At a time when the US is consumed by the idea of competition with China and Beijing can shift abruptly between supreme confidence and paranoia about its standing in the world, the channel has been a shock absorber that has helped cut the risk of a miscalculation by both the countries.
Three months after a Chinese spy balloon flew over the US, sending relations with Beijing to their lowest point, Jake Sullivan embarked on his stealth mission. The US national security adviser flew to Vienna on May 10, 2023, for a highly consequential meeting. It was the first of several secret rendezvous around the world, including Malta and Thailand, now called the “strategic channel”.
The backchannel meetings between Sullivan and his Chinese counterpart paved the way for a summit between President Biden and Xi in November 2023 in San Francisco. This summit marked a step toward easing tensions and led to agreements on collaborative projects related to climate change, nuclear proliferation, and the global COVID-19 pandemic. The resumption of semi-official nuclear arms talks in March 2024 further highlighted the importance of these discreet diplomatic channels.
DECOUPLING TO DE-RISKING
In the short term, the Biden administration is actively navigating the United States’ China policy from “decoupling” to “de-risking.” This strategic shift is not solely driven by the necessity for a stronger economic rapport with the world’s second-largest powerhouse to stabilise the U.S. economy. It also reflects a desire for a more collaborative China in the Indo-Pacific, aimed at dampening tensions surrounding the Ukraine-Russia war and the Taiwan Strait.
But in the longer term, Biden’s stance on fundamentally reshaping China-U.S. relations remains ambiguous. Not only has his administration retained Trump-era China tariffs and enacted China-countering bills such as the CHIPS and Science Act, but it also strengthened U.S. alliances in the Indo-Pacific in response to China’s increasing assertiveness. In contrast with the overt “all-encompassing decoupling” policy toward China in the final year of the Trump administration, the Biden administration has employed a more flexible and nuanced approach to China, described by Secretary of State Antony Blinken as being “competitive when it should be, collaborative when it can be, and adversarial when it must be.”
As the U.S.-China relationship reaches another critical juncture, the question arises: should President Joe Biden initiate a new round of backchannel diplomacy? Several factors will influence this decision:
- Political Will and Domestic Pressure: For backchannel diplomacy to be effective, U.S. leaders must possess a strong political determination to improve relations with China and address domestic opposition.
- Receptiveness from Chinese Leaders: The effectiveness of backchannel diplomacy depends on the anticipated response from Chinese leaders. Given the current nationalistic sentiments and contentious issues like Taiwan and human rights, the likelihood of receiving a receptive response from China may be limited.
- Impact of Nationalistic Sentiments: Both the U.S. and China are currently influenced by nationalistic sentiments, which can create significant barriers to diplomatic breakthroughs.
- Political Context and the 2024 Election: As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, both major political parties are likely to use the “China Card” to gain political advantage. This environment may limit the opportunities for significant diplomatic breakthroughs before the election.
However, backchannel diplomacy also has limitations. It can be difficult to maintain secrecy, and there is always the risk that informal agreements may not be fully implemented. Additionally, backchannel diplomacy may not be sufficient to address deep-rooted structural issues in the U.S.-China relationship.
Backchannel diplomacy, used since Kissinger’s 1971 visit, aids U.S.-China relations by fostering discreet, flexible negotiations, and stabilizing tensions short-term, but it can’t resolve fundamental issues or guarantee long-term outcomes.
COMPETITION & COOPERATION
As the U.S. and China continue to navigate a complex and dynamic relationship, backchannel diplomacy will likely remain an important tool for managing tensions and seeking areas of cooperation. However, it is essential to recognise that backchannel diplomacy alone cannot resolve all the challenges facing the two countries.
To achieve a more stable and constructive relationship, the U.S. and China must also work to address the underlying issues that contribute to their tensions. This includes:
- Economic Issues: Addressing concerns related to intellectual property theft, technology transfer, and unfair trade practices.
- Strategic Competition: Managing competition in areas such as military power, technology, and influence in the Indo-Pacific region.
- Human Rights and Governance: Addressing differences over human rights, democracy, and international governance.
By combining backchannel diplomacy with a broader strategic approach that addresses the underlying issues, the U.S. and China can work towards a more stable and cooperative relationship.
(Ambassador Sushil Kumar Singhal, IFS (Retd), former Ambassador to Angola. He has served in Tanzania, Belgium, Bangladesh and Hungry. The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The News Analytics Journal.)
