By Ambassador Soumen Ray, IFS (Retd.)
a 6 mins read.
Rampant Corruption
Countries south of the Sahara, the Sahel were mostly French colonies. Historically, the US ceded policy priorities in francophone Africa to France. However, unlike Britain, France maintained strong links with former colonies. They cooperated in the economy, defense, and resource extraction, to mention a few areas. The cozy relationship between French officials, companies, and Francophone African autocrats came to be known as Françafrique, a complex system of political, economic, and military relationships between France and its former colonies in Africa, characterized by neocolonialism, paternalistic arrangements, and rampant corruption.
The past few years have witnessed a wave of anti-French sentiment hitting the Sahel. Powerful military establishments there helped foment the anti-French sentiment, but they did not control it. Local elites, various civil society groups, ethnic and tribal groups are mainly behind these protest movements and, the military took advantage of the situation by removing the “elected” governments. During the last five years, there were five coups in the Sahel (Gabon, Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso, and Niger). There were also attempted military takeovers. If we go a few years back, the list will include The Gambia, Chad, and Sudan.
In all these cases of undemocratic change of government, economic stagnation, ongoing violent attacks on civilians, autocratic and ruthless governments managing elections, and distrust in civilian leadership were the primary reasons for the forceful removal of “elected” rulers by the military and subsequent taking over of power by them.
Alliance of Sahelian States
The US ignored longstanding patterns of governance, neglected the pro-sovereignty movements, and denied any role of independent local African blocs in the political structure. They are now accusing Russia of driving major political shifts in the Sahel. But the US misses the reality that Africans, not Russians or Americans, are in command. Three countries under military rule formed the Alliance of Sahelian States (AES), for example, was a project initiated by Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. Their first and foremost objective was to counteract the military threat from a regional bloc, ECOWAS. The AES continues to gather steam, with Chad now expressing interest in joining. Russia welcomed the development, but it does not mean Moscow inspired it. The US considered AES as a Russian project and suggested its impact can “spill” across borders creating further instability and insecurity.
Despite Russia’s military struggles in Ukraine, Moscow has not cut back its ambitions in the Global South. Over the past few years, Russia has doubled its focus on Africa’s Sahel region. Moscow is inserting itself in countries such as Mali and Burkina Faso and is taking advantage of Western policy missteps and growing anti-European sentiment. It has embraced the military juntas of Mali and Burkina Faso by providing necessary security assistance (training their army and supplying military hardware), diplomatic support, and giving them the required information for the survival of their regimes.
It has gone to the extent of warning any outside country or regional organization to militarily intervene in these countries’ internal affairs. Moreover, the African Corps, formerly known as the Wagner Group, has been cooperating with autocratic governments/ factions in many African countries as far as Sudan. The Russian move is to be seen as part of the West African nations’ deepening security ties with Moscow, as they pull away from close cooperation with the United States in counterterrorism efforts, turning instead to Russia for security.
Significant Damage
The coup in Niger last July was somewhat different amongst the “junta group” in the region. After taking over power, unlike his other compatriots, General Abdourahmane Tchiani and his National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland (CNSP) did not snap Niger’s relations with the US. With around 1000 troops they were allowed to operate from two drone bases: Air Base 101 in Niamey and Air Base 201 near Agadez. These two air bases are strategically located enabling the US to easily fly surveillance and reconnaissance drones from there to cover the Sahel, west and central Africa for counterterrorism operations against al-Qaeda and the Islamic State in West Africa.
But the situation took an abrupt turn after a visit by the US Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, Molly Phee, and AFRICOM Commander General Michael Langley in March this year. It did a significant damage. The two senior US officials warned the government not to cooperate in any way with Russia and Iran. This irritated CNSP. Like other African leaders, they hate to be lectured upon. Neither the U.S. nor Russia are in a position to force Africans to choose sides, efforts to do so will only result in rebuke. So, soon after the US officials’ visit, Niger declared all their security agreements with the Americans to be null and void and told them to pack up. The action was preceded by Niger’s abrogation of security arrangements with France and the EU.
A first set of about 100 Russian advisers had arrived in Niger on April 10 along with air defense systems. This was followed by three cargo planes with more trainers, equipment, and food products. However, Russian forces did not mingle with U.S. troops. They are using a separate hangar at Airbase 101, which is next to Diori Hamani International Airport in Niamey. However, the move by Russia’s military puts U.S. and Russian troops in close proximity at a time when the nation’s military and diplomatic rivalry is increasingly acrimonious over the conflict in Ukraine.
If we analyze the reasons for this shift in seeking partners for security and economic development by African nations, the facts are clear. While Western allies demand the rule of law, democracy, and human rights in return for security and economic support, Russia portrays itself differently. With its mantra of “noninterference” and “respect for sovereignty”, Russia has become more acceptable to ruthless military dictators and civilian autocrats of the Sahel. Decades of support and intervention from the former colonial power, the EU, and the US yielded little result in economic or political advancement nor in curbing extremist violence in this region.
Russia has strategically capitalized on failed peacekeeping missions and military withdrawals by Western powers, stepping in to offer diplomatic support, security assistance, and anti-terror aid to countries like Mali and Burkina Faso, and now, Niger without any strings attached. These new alliances and access to resources have proven particularly useful for Russia as it faces stringent sanctions for its invasion of Ukraine. The Sahel region is rich in natural resources such as oil, uranium, natural gas, and lithium.
Geopolitical Dynamics
In sub-Saharan Africa, a democratic government was formed in almost every country, except the tiny kingdoms of Lesotho and Eswatini, formerly known as Swaziland, where monarchs are still reigning. But now military takeovers have been a major source of concern in the Sahel and beyond, making it a coup-contagious region. As a result, in the last decade, issues such as terrorism, insecurity, and human trafficking characterized the region. North and sub-Saharan countries are seriously worried about this.
The Epicentre of terrorism is the tri-border area of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. European countries are also affected by the extraordinarily large number of refugees influx from here.
Until very recently, France and the US were in charge of anti-terrorism operations, however, with practically no remarkable success. Terrorist attacks rose by 25% on average, during the past five years in Africa. With the departure of France and now the US, enters Russia, a country which does not at all have a good track record in providing security to the civilians here.
In Mali, following a military coup in 2021, Russia deployed military advisors, fighter jets, and helicopter gunships alongside a contingent of 400 mercenaries of their African Corps, aimed at combating jihadist insurgencies in the region. Despite these reinforcements, the security situation in the country worsened.
Coinciding with Russian support, Burkina Faso has experienced similar security issues. Since January 2024, a shipment of Russian arms and a team of 300 paramilitary fighters have arrived. However, despite these efforts, violence in the region continues to escalate exponentially. Around 2.1 million people have been displaced from their homes and most of the schools are inoperative.
Thousands of civilians were killed in this region, and importantly, a substantial portion of these recent casualties have been linked to operations involving the Wagner Group/ African Corp. Under the circumstances, Africa has “heated up”. African countries are stressing that ongoing violence underscores the complex and evolving geopolitical dynamics in the Sahel, highlighting the mixed results of foreign military interventions in the region.
The transition from Western to Eastern alliances in the Sahel poses significant questions about the future of regional security and the management of local resources. Furthermore, it remains uncertain whether this shift will mitigate the extremist violence that has destabilized the region for years. And extremism is on the rise. As the West seemingly retreats, adopting a more passive role, it watches as the Sahel navigates this new geopolitical reality, potentially ushering in a period of continued unrest and strategic realignment. If the U.S. and the EU lose a foot in the Sahel, which is very possible, it will be the result of their efforts to force Africans to choose sides. In the long run, if the West and Russia wish to fight Islamist militancy in the Sahel to safeguard their own countries as well from jihadi attacks, they will need to find a way to, if not cooperate, at least deconflict and accommodate each other’s presence. If not, they’ll both find themselves on the outside looking in. Nature abhors a vacuum.
(Ambassador Soumen Ray, IFS (Retd.), Former Indian Ambassador and the noted columnist on current world affairs. The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The News Analytics Journal)
