The 19th Summit Meeting of Heads of State and Governments from the Group of 20 was held in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil from 18-19 November 2024. World leaders gathered in Rio against the backdrop of intense geopolitical tensions between the Western world marshalled by the US on one side and Russia & China on the other side.
AMBASSADOR SRIKUMAR MENON, IFS (RETD)- FOR THE NEWS ANALYTICS JOURNAL
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The incredibly nebulous, uncertain and complex global security situation has been brought into sharp focus by the conflict hotspots in Europe/Ukraine, the Middle East and the Red Sea, not to mention the potential threat of escalation of disputes in the Korean peninsula, the Taiwan straits and the South China Sea. The 33-month-long Ukraine war in Europe has accentuated the deep fissures within the G20 grouping – as Russia receives tacit support from China – while the United States and its Western allies robustly and overtly back Ukraine.
The crisis in Gaza and the Middle East continues unabated as Israel and Iran (through its proxies Hamas and Hezbollah) refuse to de-escalate -sticking to their belligerent and confrontational stance. Another area of concern for global peace seekers is the ongoing nuclear and missile activities by North Korea in violation of UN Security Council resolutions and the increasing military cooperation between North Korea and Russia.
THE SUMMIT AGENDA
The Rio Summit offered a great opportunity for world leaders to forge a consensus and agree on strategies to tackle long-term global challenges; devise solutions for social development issues and reduce the gaps and shortfalls that bedevil development policies in areas of governance, agriculture, education, healthcare and climate change.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, yet again, gave a miss to the summit for the third successive time, with the ICC arrest warrant continuing to hang like the ‘Damocles sword’ over him. Foreign Minister Lavrov represented Russia at the Summit.
In the lead-up to the summit, there was a significant and positive development vis-a-vis India and China. The BRICS summit held in Kazan on 24 October witnessed the landmark agreement between Prime Minister Modi and President Xi to de-escalate the long-running border stand-off between the two neighbours along the Line of Actual Control (LAC).
This timely agreement and the consequent thawing of tensions between the two important G20 players bode well for, what one may term as a ‘qualified success’ of the Rio Summit. The Sino-Indian detente, albeit temporary – a work still in progress, afforded the space for both nations to focus on jointly charting a more constructive and collaborative approach with the developed countries – toward addressing the concerns of the Global South.
India, as the previous host of the G20 summit, played a significant supporting role in shaping the agenda at Rio. Prime Minister Modi emphasised the need for sustainable development, food security and prioritising the concerns of the Global South while advocating the continuity of G20’s core ambitions at the summit.
FOCAL POINT
The Rio summit revolved around the theme of “Building a Just World and a Sustainable Planet”, which in many ways underlined global aspirations as well Brazil’s commitment to addressing pressing global issues like global governance reforms; sustainable development; combating hunger, poverty & inequality.
International economic cooperation continued to be the focal point for negotiations between the Global North and Global South. It is noteworthy that the G20 grouping – comprising of 19 major economies globally, along with the European Union and the African Union – currently represents over 79 percent of the world’s population. What sadly stands out is that a vast majority of countries in the world – totalling almost 170 in number, are not part of the G20 negotiations.
It is also a striking statistic, that almost 2.6 billion population from G20 countries continue to live below the ‘economic empowerment line’– a notional benchmark that measures an individual’s ability to afford basic needs and save money. This is even though the G20 has achieved significant progress since its inception in 1999, by lifting large numbers of people from the crippling effects of poverty. Having said that, the world and the G20 recognise that a lot still needs to be done in this area.
In pursuance of this aim, a multilateral treaty drafted by Brazil titled: “Global Alliance Against Hunger and Poverty” was ratified during the summit and a task force was established thereof to coordinate efforts of governments and international organisations to implement practical solutions to eradicate hunger and poverty.
The skewed scenario vis-a-vis the “have nots” and the poorer countries, was partially set right with the belated inclusion of the AU into the G20 fold. With South Africa taking over the G20 Presidency in 2025, the voice of the Global South will now be heard much louder.
The Rio Declaration outlined future-oriented, politically binding commitments – covering aspects like economic and social equality, ecological sustainability, global governance reforms, political security and artificial intelligence.
BRAZIL’S PRESIDENCY
Brazil, presiding over the Rio Summit, was faced with a testing time, as it had to navigate its way through this minefield of challenges within the G20 grouping. The challenge for developing countries like India, Brazil, South Africa and Indonesia has been the need to address the complex dynamics of big power geopolitics and unite the diverse voices within the Global South to present a unified front on key issues. This required quiet diplomacy and persuasive back-room negotiations – an approach that brought in rich dividends during the New Delhi G20 summit in 2023.
The Rio Summit took place during the same week as the UN Conference of Parties COP-29 on Climate in Baku, Azerbaijan. There was a renewed push for enhanced levels of commitment from Developed countries on Climate Financing to combat the negative impact of climate change and for the Carbon markets financial system to help fund climate projects. President Lula of Brazil pledged that deforestation would end in his country by 2030 – a major victory for Amazon’s climate activists.
Issues relating to global hunger, poverty and famine dominated the proceedings with proposals being pledged to forge new partnerships to implement public policies and develop social technologies for combating hunger. Importantly the Task Force for a Global Alliance Against Hunger and Poverty will be open to all countries, not just ones in the G20. To reduce global economic inequality, Brazil advocated for a global minimum tax on the 3000-strong club of the world’s top billionaires. This would help address income inequality and generate revenue for sustainable development.
A high priority area for Brazil was to push for further reforms in Global Financial Institutions such as the IMF, World Bank and WTO so that developing countries have a larger say in the conduct of these agencies. A crucial part of the Rio Declaration was the call for the restoration of the dispute settlement system at the WTO.
The G20 Summit in Brazil reinforced the growing perception of a shift in the global power dynamics, something which has been in the making since the G20 summit in Indonesia. A sharp contrast to the geo-political scenario of the past decades, which prevented the emergence of a more representative multipolar world. This only underscores the universal perception that the rotation of the G20 Presidency among member countries has ensured that diverse perspectives are represented – challenging the traditional Western hegemony.
POST-RIO
Despite Brazil’s efforts to focus on economic development issues and sidestep geopolitics, critics have been quick to point to the Summit’s failure to address and resolve pressing security issues like the war in Ukraine and the Middle East conflict and inability to produce concrete outcomes and secure commitments from member states.
Yet, the G20 remains hugely relevant, as the developed countries realise the need for collaboration with the developing countries and the Global South – to unlock new markets, technologies and innovations to drive sustainable growth and development. The G20 platform continues to provide a workable platform to engage with emerging economies to shape global governance.
From the perspective of the West, the G20 will remain a useful staging ground to promote its global agenda, amidst rising competition from countries like China. The West can use the G20 to continue to push forward and secure its interests on issues such as climate change, economic inequality, international security, establishing fair trade practices, regulating financial markets, addressing economic inequality, human rights and advancing democratic principles to offset what it sees as the negative influences of authoritarian regimes.
The first real test of the G20 grouping’s resilience to withstand and absorb future shocks would be the imminent changes that one foresees in geo-political relations once Donald Trump takes over as US President in January 2025.
FUTURE CHALLENGES
Future challenges for the G20 would be in forging consensus on various issues despite the divergent perspectives of its members – especially the US, China and Russia – and translating the collective commitments and pledges into concrete actions and meaningful outcomes.
There is also the growing competition between the US and China to carve out global influence for their own interests in strategic economic sectors of international trade, industrial and investment policies. The imposition of US tariffs on Chinese goods and the injection of huge subsidies by the US government to protect its domestic industry against Chinese imports – are issues that have contributed to increased friction in Sino-US relations. These protectionist measures by the US have raised the hackles among developing countries, while also attracting criticism from some of its own allies in the EU.
The world will have to contend with – what some observers described as – the new era of ‘Trumpian disruption’ in international politics – charting out a new brand of geopolitics that could lead to significant changes in the US approach to the war in Ukraine and the Middle East crisis, while upping the ante with countries like China and Iran.
All said and done, despite the ongoing global and geo-strategic challenges and uncertainties, the G20’s relevance post-Rio, will continue to be crucial and significant. It will remain the prime global forum for fostering international economic cooperation, promoting strong, sustainable, balanced and inclusive growth and encouraging collective action in a collaborative spirit.
(Ambassador Srikumar Menon, IFS (Retd.), former Ambassador of India to South Sudan, Angola and Sao Tome & Principe. The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The News Analytics Journal.)
