Water has shaped civilisations, ignited wars and redefined geopolitics across millennia. Today, as populations surge and climate pressures intensify, transboundary rivers remain flashpoints of tension from the Middle East to South Asia. India’s own water disputes—with Pakistan, China, Bangladesh and Nepal—underscore a harsh reality: managing shared rivers now demands political maturity, scientific cooperation and resilient diplomacy to prevent future conflict.
Ambassador Jeitendra Tripathi, IFS (R) | For News Analytics
4 mins read.
Water Water has been an important requirement for humankind since time immemorial, not only for human and animal consumption but also for agriculture, the sustainability of life—zoological and botanical alike—and, of late, for the generation of power from steam to hydel. Rivers have been the main source of potable water since the history of life on Earth. Currently, nearly 40% of the global human population is sustained by 276 rivers, which produce around 60% of fresh water. Obviously, fresh water’s importance has been a source of wealth, envy and tension, causing conflicts between societies and kingdoms.
Such tensions or conflicts are not unusual in history. In 2500–2400 B.C., Mesopotamian city-states frequently clashed over fertile soil, irrigation systems and water diversions. The states of Umma and Lagash clashed over the distribution rights of the waters of the Euphrates and Tigris rivers. In 700 B.C., in Assyria, King Sargon II destroyed the irrigation network of the Armenian Haldians. In 612 B.C., Babylonia caused flooding by diverting the course of the Khors River. In 680 C.E., Umayyad forces led by Yazid effectively blocked the enemy’s access to the Euphrates River, defeating Hussain ibn Ali (the grandson of Prophet Muhammad) and his followers. In 1503 C.E., river diversions were planned by Italian city-states to stop river water from reaching their adversaries. It is stated that during the past 4,500 years, there have been more than 1,600 cases of violence related to water between states. The worst-affected region is the Middle East, where just 1% of the world’s fresh water has to cater for 5% of the world’s population.
Water is no longer a neutral shared resource; it has transformed into a strategic asset that nations increasingly use to secure influence, leverage and geopolitical advantage.
MODERN FLASHPOINTS EMERGE
In modern times, most water-related tensions have been witnessed in the Middle East and Asia. The Nile River basin conflict between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia remains unsettled. The Grand Ethiopian Dam, constructed by Ethiopia in 2020 to store 74 billion cubic metres of water for producing 5,150 MW of electricity, has been objected to by Egypt and Sudan. The Jordan River basin has also been a cause of discontent and conflict between Jordan, Israel and Lebanon. With the tripling of population in the region since 1950, the water of the Jordan River has become scarcer. Similarly, the Euphrates–Tigris basin still remains under dispute between Iraq and its neighbours.
The Indus Waters Treaty continues to stand as one of the world’s most politically delicate and vulnerability-prone water-sharing agreements, constantly exposed to shifting bilateral tensions.
In Asia, India has disputes with many of its neighbours regarding the sharing of transnational rivers. Although we have settled the land boundary with Bangladesh, the agreement on sharing the Teesta River’s water could not be reached due to stiff objection by the Government of West Bengal, perhaps on party lines. Similarly, the construction of a dam on the Kosi River by India for power generation has caused discontent in Nepal, though we agreed to share the power thus generated. However, the major issue has been the Indus Waters Treaty signed between India and Pakistan in 1960 for sharing the Indus water system. According to the Treaty, of the Indus and its five tributaries, India had absolute authority over the water flow of the Sutlej, Beas and Ravi, while the waters of the Chenab, Jhelum and Indus were awarded to Pakistan. Thus, the Treaty awarded a total of 59 million acre-feet to India, while Pakistan was given 64 million acre-feet—more than India.
India was given the right of non-consumptive use of the three western rivers—Chenab, Jhelum and Indus—which means India could not store the waters of these rivers for irrigation and potable use but could use them to construct hydroelectric power plants of the “run-of-the-river” type, where the volume of water emanating from the power plant remains unaltered. This distribution was clearly biased in favour of Pakistan, as it adversely affected the requirements of power generation and irrigation in Jammu & Kashmir. But, showing generosity towards Pakistan’s claim that the Indus River system was the lifeline of its Punjab province, India agreed to the Treaty. There was also a provision for financing the construction of dams on the Pakistan side by several countries, including India, and we honoured this obligation despite tense relations.
WORLD BANK
Unfortunately, 7.5 million acre-feet of water allotted to India was also allowed to flow to Pakistan, as India was unable to utilise it. Peculiarly, the Treaty brokered by the World Bank has neither an exit clause nor any provision for amendment, although it can be suspended or put on hold—though this too has not been explicitly provided for (India has put the Treaty in abeyance after the Pahalgam terror attack by Pakistan-based terrorist organisations).
The dispute resolution mechanism provides for a Permanent Indus Commission, a Neutral Expert and a Court of Arbitration, in that chronological order. India has, under the Treaty, constructed a few dams on its side despite objections from Pakistan. Other proposed dams are yet to materialise. India’s decision not to release the 7.5 million acre-feet of water and to utilise it instead for irrigation and power generation has not gone down well with Pakistan, which, trying to play the victim card, accuses India of waging a “water war”. Pakistan has also resorted to illegal “river training” by diverting the flow of part of the Indus River towards Gujarat, thereby polluting salt fields.
ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONS
Another dispute on transnational water exists between India and China. China is constructing a huge dam (more than thrice the size of the Three Gorges Dam), which, besides being a seismic threat, poses a potential danger to our North-Eastern region. If, in times of tension, China releases water, it will cause flooding in the region. To minimise this, India plans to construct two dams in the region, and we have reached an understanding with China for sharing relevant data regarding the dam and its storage. Yet, given China’s past actions, additional precautions are necessary.
Absent sustained diplomatic cooperation, shared rivers can rapidly transform from essential lifelines into powerful sources of friction that may ignite serious regional or international conflict.
With Bangladesh, we have a minor dispute regarding the sharing of Teesta River water. The river originates in Sikkim, passes through Bangladesh before entering West Bengal, and has a catchment area of 1.7 million sq. km in northern Bangladesh, serving as a lifeline for rice cultivation. Bangladesh has long objected to India’s usage in the upper riparian area. In 1983, a temporary understanding was reached under which India was to receive 39%, Bangladesh 36% and the remainder remained unallocated. However, this did not satisfy Bangladesh, and the issue remained unresolved. In 2016, we were close to reaching an agreement with the Sheikh Hasina government, but it fell through due to objections from the West Bengal government.
A fourth and very minor tension point exists with Nepal over the Kosi River. The Kosi, with six tributaries, flows from the Tibetan plateau across Nepal to meet the Ganga in Bihar. It is known for frequent changes in its course, causing floods and devastation in both Nepal and India. A treaty was signed in 1954 and revised in 1966, but discontent in Nepal has persisted. Nepal has occasionally accused India of encroaching upon its territory by taking advantage of the river’s shifting course. However, this has not escalated into serious tension.
CAUSES AND CURES
In Southeast Asia, the centuries-old dispute among Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, China and Vietnam was resolved by establishing the Mekong River Commission some thirty years ago. There have also been disputes in African nations over the sharing of transboundary rivers, but they have not escalated significantly.
What causes tension or conflict over transboundary rivers? One can enumerate eight factors affecting water sharing: scarce and unevenly distributed water resources; lack of binding international agreements (sometimes lopsided); population pressure; climate change reducing potable water; growing reliance on hydroelectric power; the need for food security; excessive water usage; and the weaponisation of water by countries with abundant resources.
The cure lies in negotiated agreements between parties, addressing concerns with empathy and consideration. For example, we could have resolved the Teesta issue had it not been opposed by the West Bengal government, which played petty politics over national interest. Successful examples include the sharing of the Mekong River through the Mekong River Commission and the sharing of Iguazu River water and dam-generated power by Argentina and Brazil. These examples demonstrate that, with a willingness to accommodate legitimate concerns, sustainable solutions are achievable. Without such flexibility, the prophecy that “the next world war will be fought over water” may soon become a reality.
(Ambassador Jeitendra Tripathi, IFS (R.), Former Ambassador to Zimbabwe. He has vast experience in Africa, Europe, the Middle East, and Latin America. He was also India’s Ambassador to Zimbabwe. The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The News Analytics Herald.)
Quick Insights
- Water conflicts have existed throughout history, shaped by scarcity, geography, political interests and strategic competition.
- Major transboundary river tensions continue today across the Middle East, Africa and Asia’s most critical basins.
- India navigates challenging water disputes involving Pakistan, China, Bangladesh and Nepal across multiple shared rivers.
- Climate stress and rising populations sharply increase pressure on already limited and uneven freshwater resources.
- Sustainable peace demands negotiated, science-driven, mutually considerate water-sharing frameworks among all riparian nations.
