NewsAnalytics Bureau
(This article has also been featured by Indian Defence Review.)
a 3 mins read.
Reminding 26/11
The Hamas attack on Israel in first week of October has created an initial disbelief for the depth of preparation and the scale of operation. It did lead to anticipated global condemnation and Israel’s counter offensive against Hamas primarily focused upon Gaza. The unfolding of these events struck a chord with India for it’s striking similarity with 26/11 Mumbai attacks. The carnage followed multiple resemblances with 2008 attack by Pakistan based LeT, only varying in scale this time.
There were well trained terrorists high on contrabands, who invaded a sovereign nation, fully backed by regional power by means of logistics and intelligence for the operation, targets were clearly innocent civilians rejoicing during their national festive seasons and aim was forcing a stable nation to war. Another resemblance was the surprise element, the modus of infiltration, which was highly sophisticated in both cases. Failure of intelligence was touted as the biggest letdown during both the incidents. In both cases the attack was audacious with no effort to cover up the origin, it reflected an unabashed aggression and an element of some invisible safety net for bailing them out.
Similarities apart the intent of sponsors of the carnage were gravely sinister. It was massive bloodbath with indiscriminate killings of commoners by the terrorists. Operations appeared very well coordinated and were planned to finally culminate with the taking of hostages as insurance for escape. The planning involved quickly stepping in of foreign governments to tie down the hands of security forces. In the case of 2008 Mumbai attacks deliberate efforts were made to target places having sizable foreign nationals and same happened during Re’im music festival. The plans would have clicked in 2008 but for strong reaction of Indian security agencies which quickly swooped into action and various circumstances which prevented an outright war between neighbours.
Israeli Retort
The unprecedented Hamas attack on 6th October 2023 was not at all a random one. It would have taken time in detailed planning, identification of vulnerable targets, carrying out close reconnaissance, working through Israeli intelligence and getting prepared for their counter offensive. It would have also not been possible for an organisation such as Hamas to stitch together entire plan with it’s limited capacity. For sure, it would have the involvement of intelligence agencies of the countries having sympathetic views for Hamas. That was necessary to ensure effective counterintelligence measures were put in place at each level to bluff the Israeli eyes and ears. The operational innovativeness works best when it factors adversaries known capabilities and Hamas could achieve this by finding means to overwhelm Israel’s famed Iron Dome defense system.
These were the specific factors that convinced Israel about the involvement of multiple players beyond Hamas in execution of this shocking attack. Israel’s decision to deal with the situation with complete seriousness and launch a strong counter offensive was keeping in mind the strong message it needs to convey beyond Gaza. The strong response was anticipated, what was not, is how it will manifest. Israel activated it’s sources inside Gaza immediately as the attack was still unfolding. It waited to tighten the blockade while encircling Gaza. It used the time to gain specific intelligence & undertake diplomatic outreach to convey precise damages and look for support for it’s intent. Israel weighted the pitfalls of a full-blown ground offensive, as compared to probing & piercing raids and it opted for the later. Israel has chosen to fight Hamas Guerrillas with a non-conventional Guerrilla tactics of it’s own, a first by a regular army trained for conventional wars.
Selective Condemnation
The attack was mostly condemned but there were also many silent spectators again from the Arab world. The surprising response was from China which mentioned ‘two state solution’, a euphemism to extend support to Palestinian cause while remaining muted about the Hamas attack. Iran extending compliments to Hamas and Russian foreign office commenting upon the attack as being ‘failure of US Middle East policy’ only further complicated the matters.
The situation was read mostly as a threat to Israel and it’s supporters to remain cautious about disproportionate military response, as it may draw down other countries into the conflict. Sudden arrival of US President to Israel was not just for extending condolence but also to convey US support to impending Israeli response. It was under these complex backdrops that Israeli offensive has manifested. Israel is constantly being reminded about humanitarian catastrophe, civilian casualties, ‘inhuman’ blockades, opening of second front by Hezbollah and worst-case scenario of neighbours getting militarily involved.
What Israel is dealing today is also a reflection of threats that Indian security establishments should also be probably worried about. A major terrorist attack with ownership of non-state actors, few global condemnation, hordes of cries for humanitarian catastrophe and impending counter response spiraling to conventional war with nuclear hangover and threat of ‘second front’. These distressing scenarios are no longer out of context but extremely realistic and much of it is already being witnessed by the world today.
Intelligent Execution
It would be really great to hope that India may not have to face the situation like this but even better would be to see India remains well prepared to face it. The time is now for India to seek clarity from human rights organisations; that what about human dignity and human rights of innocent civilians and uniformed personnel being purposefully targeted by the terrorists. Response needs to be sought from the global community to fix liability over countries hosting these non-state actors; that they must automatically be cut off from the international systems with deepest possible sanctions. Diplomatic answers also required from certain countries of the Arab World about their stand on terrorism; that why they should speak only as per religious convenience while forgetting on the larger merit of humanitarian catastrophe.
India would also need to strongly adhere to it’s stated policy of no negotiations with the terrorists. It would also probably be worthy to factor the ‘Two Front Threats’ in all counter responses. It’s a new normal for India and must be accepted as bitter reality. It’s also right time for India to have it’s checklist completed as what it considers essential and preferable before executing military response during any such eventuality.
As the threat when it unfolds may not afford India the luxury of getting best scenario in it’s favour. Delay in execution of military response has it’s serious pitfalls of escalating cost. India should be well aware of essential checkboxes and must be prepared to leave rest of the thing for getting sorted subsequently. A smart plan would surely require equally intelligent execution. Being two steps ahead from the threat would be what is expected now. The best lesson that all conflicts and wars have left is they have removed all ambiguity of external support from the calculation. The fact is a country needs to address it’s conflict by itself, external support from friends is just desirable!
