India’s growing economy and national power necessitate a broader global outlook. Historically conservative in exerting influence, India now faces complex geopolitics requiring tailored responses to protect national interests. The Ukraine war exemplifies how distant events directly impact India, highlighting the need for strategic decisions that align with India’s long-term global vision.
THE NEWS ANALYTICS JOURNAL, EDITORIAL DESK
a 5 mins read.
The last couple of months have witnessed a string of developments each with consequences as serious as conflict escalation, opening newer war fronts, collapse of elected governments and the changing dynamics of ongoing conflicts. The Israeli decision to bomb the middle of Beirut city for its wanted man and the killing of another Hamas representative in Tehran with an alleged Israeli hand suddenly skyrocketed Middle-East tensions.
Having made all the necessary noises against Israeli operations the active players in the region including Iran knew very well that it’s desire to directly attack Israel would have consequences that probably no one had prepared themselves for. Interesting was China’s role, quickly announcing support to Iran by the time the American aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincon was sailing into Middle-East waters, in a demonstrative show of strength by the US in support of Israel’s security.
In another warzone of Ukraine, the August 6th counter-incursion came as a strange surprise to everyone including Russia, which for the first time looked vulnerable in its more than two years of the war campaign. The Kursk incursions were different in character. It was not a counter-offensive it was taking the war to the adversary, directly questioning the self-esteem of a superpower. Closer home the fall of Sheikh Hasina’s government, like a fickle leaf in a tornado, removed the myth of being all supreme in a democratic setup. Some analysts call it an internal conspiracy, some are blaming the involvement of US and Chinese intelligence and some even have argued about the lack of ‘initiative’ by India to prevent this catastrophe.
What would secure India’s world vision in the longer run will dictate how the country responds to each development taking place in the present times.
But the counter-narratives to Bangladeshi developments are equally compelling. The government’s insensitive approach in pushing an emotive issue to the propellor chamber and then calling the armed forces to quell the dissent by ‘all means’ was baffling. It’s a democracy right, where was the connect of the elected government’s representatives with its own people? Conspiracy theorists can have their field day but the developments indicate an implosion of emotions from within that may have been subsequently exploited to suit a few. Blamers of India’s handling of the situation won’t get sleep till they have expended themselves. These are mostly the same analysts who sermon against India’s ‘Big Brotherly’ attitude towards it’s smaller neighbours! The line that is missed out is India’s national policy of staying away from local politics. That’s the only right approach to deal with sovereign nations come what may!
TAILORED RESPONSE
All these developments whether far or near impact India’s national interest in one way or the other. As India grows with it’s economy and national power the need to look beyond also increases commensurately. In a way, India has been somewhat conservative in exerting it’s rightful influence in global and regional affairs. Partly because of the historic approach of non-involvement and partly because it felt ‘immune’ to everything beyond its immediate neighbourhood.
Those circumstances and situations are no longer relevant. Geopolitics has taken new turns which are much more complex for simple analysis. The same size fits all is no longer workable. Responses need to be tailored with finesse to ensure national interests are guarded. The national interest of any nation is always a pointer towards the direction that the country wants to head for. It’s difficult to define but exciting to understand.
The war in ‘far-away’ Ukraine for instance, would have made India feel disconnected in the past with few filtered news trickling in over a longer period. The same does not hold true, with live war updates and changed economic reality that has resulted in a direct impact on the Indian diaspora. The evacuation operations demanded India to have well-oiled communications channels. The ballooning oil prices demanded India secure its energy supplies for feeding domestic mega industries and infrastructure. The alignment of global power structures demanded caution from India for siding in such a complicated conflict. That’s where the national interests kick in, what would secure India’s world vision in the longer run will dictate how the country responds to each development taking place in the present times.
STATESMAN APPROACH
Changed realities are definitely reflected in India’s recent approach to address the newer dynamics. Indian PM’s decision to visit Russia within a month of taking charge of the government, when world powers were building pressure to further corner it, reflected India’s faith in the strength of it’s bilateral and special strategic relations. The visit to Kyiv last month again proved India’s consistent balanced approach. Noticeable was the fact that India didn’t blink when Western analysts tried questioning the personal gesture of the Indian PM towards President Putin.
Even more specific was the ‘displeasure’, running thinly on the margins of criticism, expressed by the Ukrainian President himself about the visit of the Indian PM to Moscow. Indian PM still continued with his visit to Kyiv demonstrating a statesman approach of carrying a larger vision. The visit shouldn’t be mistaken to have occurred for the sake of any pre-scheduled plan. In diplomacy, such things can get short-circuited if nations develop cold feelings about each other and postpone them due to ‘scheduling difficulties’ for a future convenient date. India has carried the message of peace to Ukraine and it’s seriousness about diplomatic solutions, which it has conveyed time and again. Indian PM reiterating the same standing in Kyiv answered many such doubters.
It would have indeed turned out to be important of all the visits that Ukraine would have hosted since the break out of the war and had the potential to finally open the doors for negotiations. But Ukrainian incursions inside Russian territory suddenly changed the ground reality just before PM landed in Ukraine. This unexpected incursion gave Ukrainian leadership a feeling of getting into a position of strength and it’s Western supporters a ‘new hope’ of further embarrassing Russia.
Many of them were convinced continuation of war would probably give better dividends soon. A sense of backout has started becoming evident. On the other side of the frontline, Moscow didn’t feel the time was right to sit at the table until they had evicted all intruders. It’s anybody’s guess that the outcome of this much-anticipated visit would have been much different had these sudden developments not taken place. Nonetheless, the PM’s visit to Kyiv and India’s demonstrated intent to find a diplomatic solution has effectively taken the wind out of the habitual critics. It has also changed the wavelength of diplomatic interactions behind closed doors much in India’s favour.
India would no longer have the luxury of remaining muted. It’s mere presence would allow like-minded nations to be with someone they trust and can repose faith for fairness.
Similar has been the Indian response to Sheikh Hasina’s government’s fall in Dhaka. If media reports are to be believed India has indeed ‘cautioned’ the Bangladeshi PM about likely spiralling out of law and order and its severe impact on the country’s stability but to no avail. India did well to share all the inputs as a friendly nation for the stability of it’s neighbour but clearly avoided crossing its own red lines. It’s a proof of strong national approach to not meddle in the internal affairs of others. As a mark of acknowledgement of India’s good intent the immediate appraisal call by the Bangladesh Interim Government’s Chief Advisor Mohammad Yunus stands as a strong gesture.
CAPACITY TO LEAD
India should continue to drive its global engagements with twin aims of being present wherever it matters and putting across its perspective. That’s the best way to create its own space. India’s recent engagements have a mark of this thought process. The reopening of the Indian embassy in Libya after five years, or sending its Foreign Minister to Maldives to roll out UPI payments infrastructure indicates India’s willingness to step in and stay present. The visits at the highest level showcase India’s worldview, not siding is not equal to being absent.
India holds that moral high ground and a place where it can be confident of its way forward. Times have changed for sure a phone call from Western capitals doesn’t kick anxieties anymore. If at all calls are received it is to understand India’s viewpoint. An immediate example would be the readout of President Joe Biden’s call to the Indian PM post his Kyiv visit, which appreciated India’s engagement efforts towards finding solutions.
There’s a lot at stake as India pushes its way ahead, the continuing heavy clouds in the neighbourhood, the rush to secure the pole position in the Global South, Europe’s increasing inward focus and the sharp assertiveness of China is redrawing the world order. India would no longer have the luxury of remaining muted. It’s mere presence would allow like-minded nations to be with someone they trust and can repose faith for fairness. The time is right now when India must assert it has the capacity to lead the silent majority and demonstrate its stakes in the global arrangement. If the world is no longer Unipolar then it is definitely not going to be Bipolar either!
