The upcoming Trump-Putin summit in Riyadh signals a potential shift in global power dynamics, echoing the historic Yalta Conference. Saudi Arabia’s role as a mediator highlights its growing geopolitical influence, balancing relations between the U.S., Russia, and China. With Europe sidelined and the Middle East emerging as a strategic hub, this meeting could redefine alliances, economic strategies and the future of the Ukrainian war. Our Arab correspondent, Ms Nadia Hallak spoke to Mr Akram Kamal Sraywi, an expert in Strategic Affairs and International Law.
Nadia Hallak, Lebanon, Arab Correspondent, The News Analytics Journal
a 5 mins read.
The American-Russian talks in Riyadh on February 18th marked the beginning of President Donald Trump’s efforts to thaw relations with Moscow. The event was far from trivial, as the high-level U.S.-Russian meeting had many implications, especially since Saudi Arabia played a prominent role in bridging the gap between Washington and Moscow. The meeting, which brought together the U.S. Secretary of State and his Russian counterpart, with the U.S. National Security Advisor and the chief advisor to the Russian president present, was described by both sides as “important and successful,” as they agreed to restore diplomatic relations between the two powers. Why did President Trump choose Saudi Arabia to host the summit with President Putin? Does the Riyadh summit mark the reshaping of the new global order between Trump and Putin?
HISTORIC YALTA CONFERENCE
The upcoming summit recalls the Yalta Conference. Between February 4 and 11, 1945, the leaders of three major world powers—the Soviet Union’s Joseph Stalin, U.S. President Franklin Roosevelt, and British Prime Minister Winston Churchill—met in Yalta, Crimea, to discuss Europe’s post-war future. They agreed to divide, or more accurately, share, Germany and other spheres of influence in the world. After the conference, Roosevelt visited King Abdulaziz Al Saud of Saudi Arabia aboard the American cruiser USS Quincy, docked at the Great Bitter Lake.
At that time, Roosevelt understood the importance of the Saudi role and the necessity of forging an American alliance with Saudi Arabia to safeguard future American interests in the region and globally. This meeting laid the groundwork for the key event in U.S. economic history—the establishment of the “petrodollar,” which made the U.S. dollar the official global currency for pricing and selling oil, paving the way for ongoing American economic influence.
The Roosevelt-Al Abdulaziz meeting was not limited to bilateral relations but also addressed broader regional issues, particularly Palestine, the growing Jewish migration there, and the refugee crisis. When Roosevelt asked for advice on the Jewish refugee problem, King Abdulaziz suggested that Jews should return to the lands from which they had been expelled in Europe, such as Poland, which had seen over three million Jews killed by the Germans.
The king also highlighted the growing threat posed by the ongoing Jewish migration to Palestine and land purchases. He warned, “The Arabs will choose death over surrendering their land to the Jews.” They also discussed the situation in Lebanon and Syria, urging pressure on France to grant them full independence.
The Roosevelt-Al Abdulaziz meeting addressed U.S.-Saudi relations, Palestine’s Jewish migration, and regional issues, emphasising Arab resistance, independence for Lebanon and Syria, and future economic ties.
RELIVING THE PAST
Today, history seems to be repeating itself. The world’s three major leaders will meet to decide the fate of the Ukrainian war, the Middle East, and international relations.
It is not by chance that President Trump proposed to President Putin to meet in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, to discuss bilateral relations and the future of the war in Ukraine. Ironically, just as the Yalta Conference excluded French President Charles de Gaulle, the European role is now being completely sidelined. Similarly, as the Yalta conference had discussed the post-war fate of Germany and the prosecution of its leaders as war criminals, the future of Ukraine will be discussed in the absence of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, whom Trump has called a dictator.
EUROPE CAUGHT IN A VORTEX
An important issue in the ongoing developments is Europe’s place at the negotiation table. Over the past three years, the United States has pressured European countries to provide financial and military support to Ukraine and increase military spending to 3% of GDP.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Europe entered a period of relaxation, with many countries significantly cutting military spending, which had exceeded 4% of GDP in 1989. Many European nations sold off a large portion of their weapons, especially tanks, artillery, and armoured vehicles, shifting their spending focus to vital sectors such as industry and services.
Among NATO countries, Germany, as Europe’s largest economy, allocated the smallest share of its GDP to defence. However, after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced a 100 billion euro increase in military spending. France also raised its defence budget by a third over six years. Poland signed deals to buy hundreds of HIMARS rocket launchers, which played a crucial role in Ukraine, in addition to three times the number of tanks owned by France and the UK, and six times the number of self-propelled artillery pieces in Germany. Poland also purchased 32 F-35 fighter jets, 96 Apache helicopters, and several types of drones, including the latest MQ-9B model.
In the meantime, American arms manufacturers have reaped huge profits and are now struggling to meet demand. Despite all this, Trump pursues a strategy of embarrassing Europe. On one hand, he asks European countries to increase military spending and pay their NATO dues. On the other hand, he threatens to withdraw from NATO and hints at a deal with Putin, disregarding the opinions of European leaders, especially those who have become enemies of Russia and have threatened to send troops to Ukraine.
SAUDI AS “THE NEW EUROPE” FOR U.S.
Given the vital nature of American interests, the Middle East has become, as Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman described it, “the new Europe.” In this region, the U.S., China, and Russia are competing through three major projects: China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which reaches the Mediterranean coast via Turkey and Syria; Russia’s North-South corridor, crossing the Caspian Sea to Iran and India; and the U.S. economic corridor connecting India to the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Israel, and Europe.
It is also well-known that Iran had ambitions to establish a land corridor similar to the Chinese and American projects, linking it to Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. However, the recent developments in Syria have seemingly dashed this Iranian dream.
What is evident from all this is the Middle East’s strategic importance in global conflict, with Saudi Arabia playing a central role. Several factors make Riyadh the ideal place for the Trump-Putin summit:
Saudi Arabia’s position of positive neutrality in this war, is unlike many countries that have taken sides with Ukraine or Russia. Even Switzerland, historically neutral, has aligned with Ukraine.
The strong relationships between Saudi Arabia, particularly Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and all parties in the conflict—Trump, Putin, and Zelensky, all of whom have visited Saudi Arabia, met with the Crown Prince and expressed confidence in his role as a fair mediator.
Saudi Arabia’s significant regional influence, allows it to play a central role in any peace efforts or economic development projects, from oil and transportation to infrastructure, trade, and energy.
The global competition to win Saudi favour. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has succeeded in building balanced relations with all global actors. He has maintained strategic relations with the U.S. while establishing a strong trust with Russian President Vladimir Putin, as well as strengthening partnerships with China, which has recently played an important role in improving Saudi-Iranian relations and has major investment projects in the Kingdom.
Saudi Arabia’s pivotal role in regional power balances, particularly in countering Iranian and Turkish influence, especially in Syria, which is currently the epicentre of events. What happens in Syria will have significant implications for the future of the Middle East for years to come.
All these factors have made Saudi Arabia the ideal venue for the Trump-Putin summit. Saudi Arabia’s role will not be limited to hosting the meeting but will extend to reshaping new equations on both regional and global levels. This aligns with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s ambitions and his broader vision for Saudi Arabia and the region.
(Nadia Hallak, senior correspondent and distinguished journalist from Beirut, Lebanon. She has extensively worked in the Arab region and covers major developments in the Arab world for TNJ. The views expressed by the author and any guest experts do not necessarily reflect the views of The News Analytics Journal.)
Major Highlights
- The future of Ukraine will be discussed in the absence of Ukrainian President.
- The US has pressured European countries to increase military spending to 3% of GDP.
- Germany has increased military spending by Euro 100 billion post-Russia Ukraine war.
- American arms manufacturers have reaped huge profits and now struggling to meet demand.
- All parties in the conflict have expressed confidence in Saudi Arabia’s role as a fair mediator.
- Saudi Arabia’s role will likely extend to reshaping new equations on global levels.
