The Alaska Summit on 15 August, bringing together US President Trump and Russian President Putin, represented Washington’s latest effort to directly engage Moscow in negotiations aimed at brokering a peace settlement to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. The meeting highlighted America’s intent to assume a central role in conflict resolution while testing the prospects of meaningful diplomatic engagement.
AMBASSADOR SRIKUMAR MENON, IFS(R)
FOR NEWS ANALYTICS
a 5 mins read.
Despite President Trump’s confident demeanour and grandstanding in the days leading up to the Summit, the talks did not result in any clear breakthrough. Belying expectations, the discussions were seemingly subdued, achieving limited progress on finding ways to end the war in Ukraine. The complexities of the issue, the concerns raised by various stakeholders and extreme positions taken by the warring parties brought into sharp focus the challenges in achieving a lasting peace agreement. Both Putin and Trump have, however, expressed optimism about the potential for progress.
LEGACY OF THE SUMMIT
Even before the Alaska summit meeting began, it was already turning out to be a win for Putin. The high-profile meeting with President Trump significantly boosted Putin’s credibility. Visuals from the Summit only underscored this fact, as Putin was accorded a ceremonial red-carpet reception, with US military aircraft escorting his jet above the skies of Alaska, followed by a military fly-past – an honour reserved for global statesmen.
The visit effectively ended Putin’s long diplomatic isolation, a personal gridlock he had failed to cast off since the Ukraine war began in 2022. A far cry from being a pariah in the western world to his present status – gaining credibility and a negotiating position to forge, on his own terms, a peace deal to end the war he had started in the first place. The Summit restored Putin’s global standing in more ways than one. The talks started off with what Putin had wanted – with both sides focusing on a peace agreement and then moving on to negotiating a ceasefire – a moral victory of sorts for him.
From the West’s standpoint, the summit at least achieved what past diplomatic initiatives could not secure, i.e., to get the ‘aggressor and initiator’ of the conflict to the negotiating table. Like Ukraine, the European alliance, yet again, found itself on the margins, unable to have any major say in the unfolding drama. Pressure continues to mount on Ukraine to consider territorial concessions (to surrender the Donbas region to Russia).
There are reports of Putin having agreed to the proposal of the US and European allies to extend some form of a NATO-type security guarantee to Ukraine, which broadly could be in line with NATO’s Article 5. President Trump has, however, made it clear that, in return, Ukraine should be ready to surrender some of its territories to Russia. The European leaders’ decision to join Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy in Washington, DC, on 18 August, for talks with President Trump, was an attempt to gain some lost ground.
THE EMERGING WORLD ORDER
Over recent decades, alliances like QUAD, AUKUS, BRICS, and SCO shaped global order, fostering balance, trust, and stability, with BRICS rising as a multipolar power.
In a fractured and polarised world, any failure to build on the limited positives emanating from these talks in Alaska could result in further hardening of positions and potential shifts in alliances and diplomatic relationships. Though the United States continues to have a unique position in the world order, the reality is that the US no longer has the kind of singular dominance that it had in the 1950s or the 1990s. New emerging political realities have brought into sharp focus the steady decline of the US’s global dominance, besides the simultaneous rise of China and Russia.
Post-Alaska, there is a perceptible shift in US-Russia relations, with both countries exploring potential cooperation. Another crucial aspect of the big canvas of geopolitics is the question about NATO’s future; the extent of US involvement in Europe; and how the leading lights of Europe – viz. The UK, France, and Germany develop their respective bilateral relations with Russia and China. There was a time when the global order – driven by multilateralism and international trade – was marked by a subtle mix of rivalry and pragmatic cooperation among big powers.
This has resulted in a gradual shift in emphasis, with big powers focusing more on achieving strategic superiority, pursuing their own security interests and securing strategic rare minerals and resources. There is also an interesting alternate perspective on the post-Alaska scene, expounding the thought that this newfound bonhomie could be “part of the grand strategy of Russia and the US” to come together to share the spoils of global resources in the coming years. Yet, notwithstanding the mutual benefits, there are significant challenges and limitations for such close Russia-US cooperation to become a reality, given the lack of trust between the two sides.
EMERGENCE OF NEW BLOCS
Various international alliances like QUAD, AUKUS, BRICS, SCO, etc. have evolved in the past couple of decades. These Blocs have played crucial roles in shaping the new world order – in maintaining balance of power, strengthening mutual trust and promoting regional stability. BRICS is emerging as a significant force and is set to play a leading role in the emerging multipolar world order characterized by shifting global power dynamics.
BRICS’ expanding influence and reach are enhancing its ability to shape global norms and promote a more balanced global order. In an increasingly multipolar world, where protectionism is reshaping global commerce, the emergence of such Blocs signifies a move away from a solely Western-dominated international system while creating alternatives to Western-led institutions.
INDIA’S OPTIONS
The recent US-instigated trade and tariff measures targeting India, China, Brazil, etc. must be seen as part of the larger domestic game plan of the Trump administration’s “America First” trade strategy. The aim is to balance America’s economic interests with geopolitical considerations, while promoting American competitiveness in the global economy and protecting domestic industries and jobs.
Trump’s latest move to impose an additional 25 percent tariff on India, citing concerns over India’s purchases of Russian oil, is a clear example of his transactional style – completely ignoring and riding roughshod over established principles that nurtured historical, traditional and strategic ties.
Rebutting Western narratives and bias against India, External Affairs Minister Jaishankar has often called out the ‘double standards’ and hypocritical stance taken by the West in unevenly applying Western principles on international issues like terrorism, the Middle East crisis and the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
The US and China hold sway over Ukraine and Russia; their leverage, alongside emerging multipolar powers, will crucially shape peace efforts and future geopolitics.
He has reiterated India’s “right to pursue an independent foreign policy, based on national interests, and to drive its own course on the global stage”. India has chosen this approach even if it were to diverge from Western preferences. An example of this is India opting to continue importing oil from Russia to safeguard its economy and energy security, despite Western sanctions.
Membership of the BRICS bloc provides emerging economies like India, China, Brazil and South Africa the platform to challenge the dominance of Western powers and promote a more equitable global landscape with a greater voice for the Global South in international decision-making. India will continue with a pragmatic approach – seeking to balance its ties with the US and Russia while deftly managing its relations with China. Both India and China share common concerns emanating from American protectionist policies – something that impacts their national interests.
To lessen the impact of US tariffs, India, on the multilateral level, will focus on strengthening trade and economic cooperation with its BRICS partner nations – deepening strategic partnerships in areas like trade, energy, and technology. The Bloc could consider a unified approach to diversify intra-BRICS trade, explore alternative payment mechanisms and a common trade currency to reduce reliance on the US dollar. India and partner nations would also reach out to new regional markets in Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia to blunt the impact of US tariffs.
The US-triggered tariff dispensation provides an opportunity for India to diversify its economy strategically by further boosting its “Atmanirbhar Bharat Make in India” initiative and realise its long-term vision of Viksit Bharat @2047.
Coming back to the war in Ukraine, it is true that the United States still has considerable influence in Ukraine, while China has its share of influence in Russia. It would be interesting to see how the two (the US and China) leverage these to play a decisive role in the process to end the war. The international community wants an end to the stalemate and will encourage all efforts to achieve that objective. As we commence the second quarter of the 21st century and move towards a multi-polar world order, the stage is set for new emerging players to share a more level playing field, with established big power players, with the space and opportunity to exert their own brand of economic and political clout, with multiple centres of power and influence. This trend will define geopolitics in the next decade and beyond.
(Ambassador Srikumar Menon, IFS (R.), former Ambassador of India to South Sudan, Angola and Sao Tome & Principe. The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The News Analytics Herald.)
Major Highlights
- Alaska Summit: Trump–Putin talks failed to achieve a clear breakthrough.
- Putin regained global credibility, ending diplomatic isolation with red-carpet treatment.
- West sidelined Ukraine; Europe sought a stronger role in security and negotiations.
- Summit signaled shifts in geopolitics, declining US dominance, rising China and Russia.
- India faces US tariffs, balances ties, and leverages BRICS for strategic autonomy.
