Ambassador Jeitendra Tripathi
a 6 mins read.
Sharp Reaction
On May 28, three prominent EU states-Ireland, Spain, and Norway announced their recognition of the sovereign state of Palestine. Soon, Slovenia followed suit on June 4. Thus, with Bulgaria, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia have already recognised the State of Palestine, the total number of such countries has increased to eleven, more than one-third of the strength of the EU. It is also believed that Belgium and Malta are also seriously considering doing so which will bring the majority of the EU in favour of Palestine to a great discomfiture of Israel.
Sharply reacting to this recent move by Ireland, Norway, and Spain, Israel Katz, the Foreign Minster of Israel, declared that such recognitions were an “attack on Israel’s sovereignty endangering its security.” He also termed the action of these three as “rewarding terrorism.” In a sharp diplomatic reaction, Israel recalled its ambassadors from Ireland, Norway, and Spain. However, the EU maintains its representational office in Ramallah and Palestine has its representational presence in all EU countries despite the formal recognition by only some of them.
Since the declaration of independence of Palestine by the Palestine National Council (PNC) on November 16, 1988, 144 out of 193 members of the United Nations have recognised Palestine- 93 within four months of the declaration. Though no more a member of the EU, the United Kingdom, the creator of the state of Israel by carving land out of the Palestinian territory, had always displayed a dubious stand on the issue. In October 2014 (when the UK was still a member of the EU), the House of Commons passed a resolution saying “This House believes that the Government should recognise the state of Palestine alongside the state of Israel, as a contribution to securing a negotiated two-state solution”.
Peace Process
However, this could not be implemented as this vote was not binding on the Government. The UK government continues to reiterate its long-standing position that it would recognise a State of Palestine only at the “right time” in the peace process with Israel. In February 2021, the Foreign, Commonwealth, and Development Office said: “The UK will recognise a Palestinian state at a time of our choosing, and when it best serves the objective of peace.” This ‘right time’ still seems to elude the UK!
As regards the remaining EU members, Finland is the only country from Scandinavia having not recognised Palestine. Here, though the main opposition parties green and the Left Alliance have openly called for immediate recognition of the state of Palestine, the ruling coalition feels that it would be possible only after the negotiations between the two sides begin which President Alexender Stubb has echoed by hoping that the recognition will come “at some point in future.” Italy, Germany, and Denmark are firmly behind Israel and thus against the recognition of Palestine unless Israel accepts it.
While the Netherlands too would like to wait for the peace negotiations to start before pondering on the recognition issue, France and Portugal are non-committal though their respective parliaments have, like the British House of Commons, passed “non-binding” resolutions calling for according recognition to the state of Palestine. Greece, earlier considered a friend of Palestine (41 of its municipalities having raised the flag of Palestine on May 15 last year to mark the 75th year of Nakba), turned towards Israel when Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis told his Israeli counterpart, Benjamin Netanyahu, in Tel Aviv on October 23 that he had come to Israel “not just as an ally but as a true friend.”
Disproportionate Retaliation
Switzerland, along with Luxemburg and Lichenstein, also does not favor Palestine. This analysis, thus, amply manifests the sharp division in the EU on the issue of Palestine. It also displays the trend of growing support for Palestine in the wake of the indiscreet and highly disproportionate retaliation of the October 7, 2023 attack by Israel. The isolation of Israel in the EU is growing. As Ms. Phyllis Bennis, a political commentator of American-Jewish origin at the Institute for Policy Studies in Washington D.C. has very aptly observed “What is happening means an increasing isolation of both Israel and its backers in USA and the escalation of diplomatic support for Palestinian rights.”
The economic effect of the war on various stakeholders including the US and the EU is likely to drive economic activities down. While the cost of war so far to Israel has been estimated to be approx. With $400 billion in lost economic opportunities and $ 300 million a week due to work absences, the USA has so far pledged arms and ammunition worth $ 14.5 billion to Israel which, in the time of assistance to Ukraine, will certainly cause heavy stress on the American economy. According to the United Nations Development Program Report of May 2024, due to this war, Palestine has lost Approx. $50 bn in lost investments because of which over 1.5 million Palestinians fell into poverty.
Worsening Scenario
The expenditure on reconstruction of infrastructure and rehabilitation of the displaced population in Gaza will have to be borne by the developed nations, a majority of which is in Europe. Indecisiveness on the part of many European nations is also going to cost the EU heavily as their lip service (instead of taking concrete initiative) to end the war will soar the cost of rehabilitation in Palestine for which the EU has already pledged Euro 68 million till March this year. If the war escalates or even sustains, the EU economy will feel a sharper pinch capable enough to derail whatever paltry growth it has sustained so far.
The way out for the EU is to revisit its options in the current worsening scenario and take bold initiatives to reign in Israel to stop the war. Any war takes the economy of the warring nations back by at least a decade and the domino effect will be felt by the EU as well if timely initiatives are not taken to arrest further violence.
(Ambassador Jeitendra Tripathi, IFS (Retd.), Former Ambassador to Zimbabwe. He has vast experience in Africa, Europe, the Middle East, and Latin America. He was also India’s Ambassador to Zimbabwe. The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The News Analytics Journal)
