The Russia–Ukraine war, now in its fourth year, has shifted from fast-paced manoeuvres to a grinding war of attrition, with winter emerging as the decisive battlefield. As military exhaustion deepens, economies strain, and Western support wanes, both nations face a punishing season that may determine not just territorial control but the future geopolitical balance between Russia, the West, and a war-weary world.
LT GEN DP PANDEY(R)
FOR NEWS ANALYTICS
a 5 mins read.
More than 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers are dead, and many civilians as well. The estimates are much worse on the Russian side. The approximation of the cost of damages to both Russia and Ukraine is unimaginable in terms of human losses, suffering, and physical infrastructure. Two nations that lived together and fought together are now at each other’s throats, sucking life, virtually, together for the interests of outside forces. The fight of the US, NATO, and other European countries “to the last Ukrainian” has been ongoing since February 2014, when the Russians, following Ukraine’s Revolution of Dignity, occupied Crimea. The latest conflict, the longest and deadliest in the region since the Second World War, started on 24 February 2022, when, in a dramatic strategic manoeuvre, the Russian airborne forces landed near Kyiv for capture, with a ground pincer from the north to encircle and link up rapidly.
“General Winter 2022” had other plans, and so did the Ukrainians. The northern arm of the invasion floundered under the force of the winter, with heavy equipment, tanks, and mechanised columns lined up along narrow roads, becoming easy targets. They could not leave the roads due to soggy ground, and those who did were bogged down. The Ukrainians exploited rocket launchers and air power for a comprehensive blunting of the northern force and therefore avoided encirclement and capture of Kyiv. However, the Russians made some successes elsewhere, and the war rapidly transitioned into a war of attrition. The General Winter of 2022 broke the back of the Russian offensive before it could commence. Now, the winters of 2025–26 are being viewed with a fresh perspective and respect for the war between Ukraine and Russia and watched keenly by the world.
WHO IS WINNING?
No one but the Americans is are winner in this war that Putin still calls a Special Operation. The Europeans, suffering from a slowed economy that was further impacted by COVID, had to suffer the public humiliation of closing the oil and gas pipelines from Russia and diversifying on the orders of the Americans. This diversification process, not yet completed, shows how economic entanglement and mutual dependence have kept regional peace since the Cold War. The NATO countries now have to raise investments in defence and security to a minimum of 5% of GDP when their economies are in dire straits. The image of all the top leaders of NATO being schooled by Trump during the conference at The Hague, where these directions were passed and reluctantly accepted, is embarrassing to the countries concerned. The conflict has fractured peace and broken the back of the already fragile economy of the European world.
Ukraine is the worst hit, of course. Led by Zelensky, a famous comedy actor in a previous avatar and a mercurial personality now facing corruption charges of siphoning off war funds, Ukraine has been able to face off the Russian onslaught. Ukraine, bolstered by the Western powers and the bravery of its soldiers and the resilience of common citizens, has persevered against a much superior Russia, even though territories have been lost, by making the contest a replica of the trench warfare last fought in the First World War.
The Russians have suffered as well. Putin calls it a Special Operation and is yet to declare it as a war. The geopolitical isolation in the Western-led world, where the international organisations and financial institutions are still in the firm grip of the US and Europe, means the sanctions are hurting Russia’s oil-based economy. The undeclared battlefield losses, estimated to be more than 250,000, have had a significant impact.
Though for three years, Putin has been able to circumvent the sanctions, the recent ones on oil companies like Rosneft have implications even for steadfast friends like India and China, where diversification is being witnessed. In terms of infrastructure losses and the costs of war, Russia has been able to withstand the challenges. However, the geopolitical leverage has been significantly degraded with the loss of Syria and influence elsewhere, with space being ceded to China. These losses on the geopolitical stage will be irrecoverable, as will the trust in the European landscape.
Ukraine is fiercely resisting further losses, but Russia’s slow, relentless advance, backed by harsh attrition tactics and infrastructure destruction, is reshaping the conflict into a grinding, unprecedented war.
THE STRATEGIC DYNAMIC
More than the military, now the targets are civilians and civilian infrastructure. The primary targets are power generation plants critical to surviving the extreme cold. Though both sides are accused of these war crimes, Ukraine is hit significantly. There are attempts at escalation by a few members of NATO to bring in ballistic weapons of longer range and greater destructive capability. The unveiling of Burevestnik, a nuclear-powered cruise missile that can cruise in low orbit around the Earth undetected, and Poseidon, a nuclear-powered underwater drone, both intended to carry nuclear warheads, by Russia, is an obvious attempt to push the world towards a ceasefire by stopping the funding of Ukraine.
The war is now more influenced by international support for each side, but sanctions are the central argument to control Russia — and not, unfortunately, diplomacy. Though severe sanctions are in place, it seems that these are hurting the Europeans and the rest of the world more than the Russians. The Americans are the only ones surely profiting, even though they point fingers towards China and India. Russian oil has brought more grief to the world due to Trump than to Putin. At times, one wonders whether the war is about NATO’s expansion, fear of Russian influence and a presumed expansionist agenda, or simply America setting the stage for profiteering when both the world economy and theirs are down.
The Russians have virtually achieved the military and political objectives they set out for nearly four years ago. A few land enclaves are being heavily contested. There are reports of a large Ukrainian force, estimated between 5,000 and 10,000, having been surrounded by the Russians in the region of Kursk. While Ukraine, having lost significant territory, is now fighting to retain the balance of the Russian-claimed territory, the attempt to regain and retake it is met with ferocity unimaginable.
RESILIENCE AND ENDURANCE
The costs on Ukrainian civilians are going to be extremely prohibitive as the gloves are off and any infrastructure related to power, heating, and water to endure the oncoming winter is being destroyed. The allies and partner countries can provide funds, guns, missiles, and intelligence, but cannot rebuild infrastructure for the winter for the common civilian.
The winters preclude speedy manoeuvres in the face of the ill-famed “General Winter” in the Russian region, and therefore, the slugfest of trench warfare will be the focus. The exploitation of new emerging variants of drones and other destructive technologies has become extremely cost-prohibitive in terms of soldiers’ lives along the front lines. Russians and Ukrainians have both invested in these and are innovating more lethal small-to-large drones and other systems.
Ukraine faces a severe manpower crisis as casualties mount, winter intensifies losses, and replacements dwindle, while Russia—though strained—retains a larger reserve, widening the numerical disadvantage.
RELEVANCE OF THE WINTER
The winter worldwide is forecast to be severe and longer than average. Therefore, the risks and consequences are higher for both warfighters and civilians. The Russians do not have much challenge, even though their energy infrastructure has been hit multiple times, but the real issue is for Ukraine, which is short of storage space and whose gas imports are far below the required quantity.
The diminishing numbers of recruitable male or even female population for warfighting is a major cause of concern. The Russians, with a larger population base, are also struggling but have enough bench strength. A double challenge of enemy and weather will claim lives that will need replacements. The replacement numbers have shrunk for either side, but more for Ukraine.
As American interests wane in the war and new sets of sanctions further isolate the Russians, the doors to diplomacy are being shut firmly. The cost will be borne directly by Russia and Ukraine. The Russians have diversified and found alternatives to manage through the sanctions, even at some major cost. The severity of the economic challenges will be felt by Ukraine.
Ukraine’s shrinking pool of recruitable soldiers is becoming critical as winter escalates casualties and replacements fall short. Russia, despite its own strain, still commands a broader manpower base, deepening Ukraine’s numerical disadvantage on the battlefield.
However, for the two warring countries, the one that sustains the winter with strength will turn the war in its favour in the summer. This winter is extremely crucial for both — to preserve and persevere.
(Lt Gen DP Pandey (R), Former Corps Commander, Chinar Corps, DG Territorial Army, Director of Military Intelligence, Foreign Division and the Commandant of the Army War College. The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The News Analytics Herald.)
Key Takeaways
- Winter 2025–26 expected to decide the war’s military and political direction.
- Ukraine’s survival threatened by energy crisis, shrinking manpower, and fading Western aid.
- Russia faces sanctions strain but retains battlefield leverage and endurance advantage.
- Conflict now driven by attrition, drones, infrastructure strikes, civilian suffering.
- Outcome may reshape global power, weaken Western influence, embolden Russia and China.
