The political landscape in Europe has undergone a significant transformation – a trend observed particularly in the past two to three years, with right-wing political activity gaining prominence. There has been growing dissatisfaction among Europeans, which, of late, has manifested into a polarised environment facilitating a fertile ground for right-wing ideologies to flourish, something that may well shape Europe’s future.
By Former Ambassador Srikumar Menon, for The News Analytics Journal
a 5 mins read.
If one were to look back and analyse recent developments, the trigger for the emergence of a more vocal expression of right-wing politicking, can be traced to some key factors – like the European Union’s weak handling of the migrant crisis, the harsh realities and downside of Brexit kicking-in, the spiralling costs of living. The last straw has been the unpopular austerity measures that several governments have reluctantly forced upon their citizens. The EU’s obsession with the Russia-Ukraine conflict by pledging huge financial and defence resources to bail out Ukraine has only added to the despondency and economic frailties of ordinary Europeans.
The EU’s response to the migrant crisis has often been described as “dis-jointed, politically divisive and ineffective”, leading to political polarization. This appears to have given ammunition to political groups to whip up populist rhetoric, islamophobia and take a more hardline stance on immigration.
It is a fact that contentious issues and half-hearted attempts to rein in the migrants’ challenge have brought into sharp focus, the disagreements between EU member states. These flashpoints of discord have negatively impacted EU policy decisions and goals – like the need to chart out a unified EU strategy; uneven and skewed burden-sharing proposals; the lack of robust border security controls; and most importantly- addressing the human rights and humanitarian concerns.
The European Parliamentary elections held in June 2024, brought in its wake some stark and notable changes in the continent’s political landscape. The European People’s Party (EPP) led by Ursula von der Leyen (the current President of the European Commission) emerged as the winner, bagging the most seats (188) in the EP.
However, the group of pro-EU centrist, liberal, social democrat, and environmentalist green parties suffered major losses, while the euro-skeptic right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists group made significant gains. Reflecting the growing populist trend, another new right-wing group – Patriots for Europe cornered a significant share of 84 seats in the new EP.
This outcome of the EP elections, a trend-setter of sorts, reflects the shifting European political dynamics – an emerging political scenario marked by increasing polarisation, with right-wing populist parties grabbing the chance to make their presence felt and be counted in the European Parliament – thereby having a larger say in policy formulations.
This shift in attitudes, resulting in polarisation and political fragmentation, has largely been due to economic instability, insecurity, terrorism, crime, immigration and national identity concerns.
POLITICAL IMPLICATIONS
Of course, such a change to the political fabric of the continent could have potential implications for the EU’s stability, effectiveness, and credibility. Right-wing parties are traditionally known to favour ‘an isolationist approach’ towards international relations – as opposed to the EU’s emphasis on multilateral cooperation.
From the EU perspective, the challenge in Parliament would be to contend with right-wing parties putting individual national interests over and above the need to forge EU unity – resulting in more fragmentation and diminished levels of cooperation among member states.
Most importantly, the ‘restrictive immigration policies’ advocated by right-wing parties could tend to create friction within the EU – leading to increased tensions and conflicts in perceptions as well as policy execution. Other areas likely to be impacted by the emergence of right-wing groups are the prospect of dilution of environmental safeguards and a lesser emphasis on social security protections.
Of late several countries in Europe have witnessed a surge of right-wing populism – with parties capitalising on voter dissatisfaction and dominating the political narrative – be it in Italy, Austria, Germany, Hungary, Poland or the Netherlands.
Even other countries like Croatia, Czech Republic, Finland, Poland, Slovakia, Sweden et all… have seen a rise in right-wing popularity. Bowing to political compulsions, some ruling parties in power have had to make compromises to include far-right parties in their governments. These developments have caused unease among conservative and centrist parties – worrying about the possibility of authoritarian governance structures and fascist ideology again taking root in Europe.
The pro-European parties in the EP are under tremendous pressure to adapt to the dynamically changing political equations while striving to preserve the EU’s relevance.
FLASH-POINTS IN EUROPE
In Italy, the “Brothers of Italy – Fratelli d’Italia (FdI)” – a far-right party with neo-fascist roots led by Giorgia Meloni, gained significant following and support to claim victory in the September 2022 Italian parliamentary elections. FdI continues to be the ruling party in power, leading the centre-right government for the third straight year, a rarity of sorts, given the history of short-survival spans of coalition governments in Italy.
In France, the National Rally Party (RN), led by Marine Le Pen has become a major force in French politics. (Marine Le Pen is the daughter of Jean-Marie Le Pen, the controversial far-right anti-immigrant politician). In July 2024, RN won the popular vote in the French National Assembly elections, securing 32.4% of the vote share. Though placed third, the outcome was a significant victory for RN, prompting some observers of French politics to term it as a ‘worrisome and concerning’ development.
In Germany, The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which is avowedly Eurosceptic and anti-immigrant, has made substantial gains in recent times. During the June 2024 EP elections, AfD emerged as the second most popular party in Germany, after the ruling social democratic SPD party of Chancellor Olaf Schol.
Earlier the AfD had won 94 seats in the 2017 German federal elections, while it performed strongly in the 2021 federal elections, capitalising and invoking the issue of economic inequality in its traditional turf in eastern Germany – emerging as the single largest party in the states of Saxony and Thuringia.
In Austria, the far-right Freedom Party (FPO) gained 25.7% of Austria’s vote in the June 2024 EP elections. The subsequent Austrian legislative elections held in September 2024, saw the FPO emerging as a dominant political entity – improving its support base by cornering 29.2% of the vote during. This result was the best electoral performance in the party’s history and came at the expense of traditionally dominant Austrian parties like the Conservatives and the Social Democrats.
In Hungary, the Fidesz right-wing and far-right populist national-conservative Hungarian party has been in power since 2010. Prime Minister Viktor Orban and his party have courted controversy, time and again, for what critics term as their ‘Eurosceptic, anti-democratic and anti-immigrant’ stance.
In Poland, the Law and Justice (PiS) party, which headed a right-leaning united coalition in Poland between 2015 to 2023, has been a strong votary of nationalism, a strident opponent of immigration and mildly euro-skeptic in approach. During its tenure, the PiS-led government had suspended the right to asylum – calling it a “bold new migration strategy” – a clear departure from established European principles. PiS has often been criticised for its policies that have been termed as ‘anti-constitutional’ and ‘compromising judicial independence’. PiS had won 44% of the popular vote during the Parliamentary elections in 2019 – the largest vote share obtained by any party since 1990.
In the UK, The rise of right-wing politics in the United Kingdom, in recent years, can be attributed in part, to Brexit; growing anti-immigration sentiment; economic insecurity, austerity and radicalisation. The situation in the UK got further exacerbated by a vitiated social environment, instigated by online social media and the toxic rhetoric of opportunist politicians in the UK, resulting in intolerance leading to some high-profile racist, hate crimes and anti-Semitic incidents. With the Labour Party coming to power in the last July 2024 elections, the UK appears to have, at least for the time being, bucked the right-wing upsurge, trending elsewhere in Europe.
In the Netherlands, the Dutch Party for Freedom (PVV) led by Geert Wilders has been the main driver of right-wing politics in the Netherlands for the past several years now. It has taken a strong anti-immigration stance, while also taking the lead in calling for a ‘Nexit’ (Netherlands’ exit from the EU)- something that has touched the chords with a substantial section of Dutch voters.
The PVV has also taken an extreme stance on climate change policies, demanding the complete removal of existing environmental regulations and stepping up of oil and gas production. It appears that Netherlands is not yet ready for Wilders to form a right-wing coalition government on his own, though the signs are there for Wilders’ PVV to play a crucial role in future coalition governments – something that would put the country on a collision course with EU’s core values.
UNRAVELING AHEAD
The rise of right-wing groups in Europe has profound implications for both domestic and international politics. It would indeed be fascinating to see how the scene in the European political firmament unravels in the coming months – given that several countries in the region are scheduled to hold crucial Parliamentary / Federal / Presidential elections in the coming months in 2025 – like Poland (May), Romania (May), Croatia (May), Czech Republic (May), Norway (September) and Switzerland (October).
Amidst the disruptions and changes to the structure of traditional political establishments, as witnessed recently around the world, including in the United States, there are significant challenges and uncertainties ahead for the European Parliament, the European Union and its member countries.
US President Trump’s chaotic first few months in office could be seen as distractions but will be difficult to ignore for the European Governments, politicians, policymakers and citizens alike. They must rediscover their mojo to ride the storm and secure Europe’s traditionally well-entrenched, resilient and inclusive democratic traditions.
As we look ahead, this indeed is an interesting and crucial phase for global geopolitics in general and Europe in particular. The continent buckles down to tackle the daunting challenges, while the rest of the world watches with a sense of unease, tempered with a mix of anticipation and quiet optimism.
(Ambassador Srikumar Menon, IFS (Retd.), former Ambassador of India to South Sudan, Angola and Sao Tome & Principe. The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The News Analytics Journal.)
