The News Analytics Journal Arab Correspondent, Nadia Hallak analyses the current increment in the deployment of US troops in the Middle East. She spoke to Akram Kamal Sraiwi, a Lebanese expert in weapons of mass destruction and international law to explore the nuances behind the latest US move.
By Nadia Hallak, Beirut, Arab Correspondent, The News Analytics Journal
a 5 mins read.
The United States possesses six naval fleets and is the world’s foremost naval power, maintaining a permanent military presence in various regions, particularly in the Middle East. The U.S. Fifth Fleet operates in the Arabian Gulf, Red Sea, and East Africa, while the Sixth Fleet is stationed in the Mediterranean Sea.
Typically, militaries do not announce their movements, especially the movements of submarines, which are designed to be stealthy and avoid detection by enemy surveillance. However, the United States recently announced the deployment of the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier and the USS Georgia submarine to the Middle East waters. The U.S. Navy also reported that the number of American troops in the Middle East had increased from 34,000 to 40,000 soldiers.
Regarding these developments, Akram Kamal Sraiwi, a Lebanese expert in weapons of mass destruction and international law, told The News Analytics Journal: “There is a fundamental principle in the military, which is ‘showing force to avoid using it.’ With tensions rising in the region and the increased likelihood of a full-scale war between Israel and Iran, the United States wanted to apply this principle by openly announcing that it has ordered its forces to be ready to defend Israel against any military strike Iran may direct against it.”
United States is currently preoccupied with the war in Ukraine against Russia, the confrontation in the Pacific with China and North Korea, the upcoming U.S. presidential elections, and domestic issues.
New Deployments
Additionally, the United States announced the deployment of an aircraft carrier and a submarine, noting that these vessels are nuclear-powered and are accompanied by several frigates, destroyers, and other naval ships. The aircraft carrier carries squadrons of F-35C stealth attack aircraft, as well as F-22 aircraft, while the submarine is equipped with cruise missiles. The USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier group has been operating in the Middle East waters for several weeks, providing the United States with a significant military presence in the region.
The USS Wasp amphibious assault group is also operating in the region, with approximately 2,200 Marines, small amphibious assault boats, and 31 aircraft, including a squadron of F-35Bs.
According to Sraiwi, it is clear that the United States is currently preoccupied with the war in Ukraine against Russia, the confrontation in the Pacific with China and North Korea, the upcoming U.S. presidential elections, and domestic issues such as the economy, immigration, and unemployment. All these matters take precedence on the U.S. agenda over engaging in a major war in the Middle East.
This means that if a full-scale war breaks out in the Middle East against Iran and its allies, the United States would need to mobilize a much larger number of soldiers and naval assets than it currently has in the region. Such a war would also require international support or at least a coalition of several Western countries.
Major Economic Crises
Despite the talk of a possible war, Sraiwi believes that “there is no conducive environment or interest for the United States to launch an attack on Iran. A major war now could severely harm U.S. interests. Iran is a vast country and has become a significant military power, making it difficult, if not impossible, for the United States and Israel to control it without using nuclear weapons.
Contrariwise, Iran would be able to inflict significant damage on U.S. forces in the region and on Israel. While a strong strike against Iran might serve Israel’s strategic interests, it is not in the United States’ best interest to provoke a crisis in a region that is the world’s primary source of oil and gas. A full-scale war would close the Arabian Gulf, the Red Sea, parts of the Mediterranean Sea, and the Pacific Ocean, leading to a sharp rise in oil prices and triggering major economic crises that could spark a third world war, setting the world back decades.
Another factor preventing a full-scale war, according to Sraiwi, is the technological advancements that have significantly reduced the exclusive ownership of modern technologies by developed countries. Iran, for instance, has not lagged behind in benefiting from these advancements, and has begun manufacturing long-range missiles, including hypersonic missiles that exceed Mach 12, and has also developed advanced drones of various types with relatively low costs.”
When asked about the mission of the “Operation Prosperity Shield” coalition formed by the United States in cooperation with several European countries to try to stop the operations carried out by Houthi forces against ships heading to the occupied Palestinian ports, Sariwi responds, “There have been significant changes in warfare, signaling a substantial weakening of naval forces’ roles. A group of drones or unmanned naval boats could inflict considerable damage on naval vessels worth millions or even billions of dollars.”
Preventing A Comprehensive War
Sraiwi adds, “that the Operation Prosperity Guardian failed to accomplish its mission, as Yemeni forces continue to target commercial ships heading to the Port of Eilat or those belonging to coalition countries. Statements from Western officers involved in the Red Sea mission confirm the high cost incurred by naval forces, which fire million or two-million-dollar missiles to intercept a drone worth five thousand dollars.”
Sraiwi continues, “The world is entering a new phase of warfare, and it is clear that it is not adequately prepared yet. The race continues between using technology in drone warfare, which will be increasingly driven by artificial intelligence, and the very costly conventional weapons arsenals, which are currently incapable of effectively countering drones.”
Sraiwi says: that the United States does not want to ignite a major explosion in the Middle East, as such an event would likely prompt intervention from several countries, including Russia and China. Therefore, the U.S. is attempting to maintain control over the situation, sometimes through diplomacy and other times through threats and intimidation against its adversaries in the region. The goal is to keep the situation under control and prevent the outbreak of a comprehensive war that could jeopardize its vital interests in the region. The U.S. also does not want to abandon the Middle East, as doing so would open the door for Chinese advancement, particularly through the Belt and Road Initiative, which China seeks to strengthen to connect with the Middle East, Africa, and Europe.
American strategy aligns with Israeli goals, which aim to make Israel the sole dominant power in the Middle East, turning it into the region’s primary economic hub.
The Sole Dominant Power
Therefore, the U.S.-China competition in the region has intensified, especially after China sought to open the door to investment in Syria and succeeded in mediating between Saudi Arabia and Iran. This, of course, contradicts U.S. policy, which is primarily focused on the absolute protection of Israel, fostering hostility between Gulf states and Iran, and attempting to fragment and divide Iraq and Syria into sectarian and ethnic states, which would justify the existence of the Jewish state in Palestine and keep the Arabs preoccupied with side conflicts, leading some to ally with Israel, as is the case with the Kurdistan region of Iraq today.
Sraiwi explains that this American strategy aligns with Israeli goals, which aim to make Israel the sole dominant power in the Middle East, turning it into the region’s primary economic hub and the gateway for Arabs to Europe and for Europe to the Gulf states.
In September of last year, at the G20 summit held in New Delhi, U.S. President Joe Biden announced the “Peace Corridor” project, which connects India to Europe via the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Israel. The project primarily aims to integrate Israel into the region and transform the Port of Haifa into a mandatory passage for international trade. Additionally, it serves as a blow to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, effectively closing the door on it.
The increased U.S. military presence in the region is directly linked to these projects, as there is always a need for sufficient force to impose U.S. will on everyone and to threaten its use if necessary.
(Nadia Hallak is a Beirut-based journalist specialising in the coverage of geopolitical developments. She covers major developments in the Arab region for The News Analytics Journal. The views expressed by the author and any guest experts do not necessarily reflect the views of The News Analytics Journal.)
