Quantum technologies are set to redefine global power by challenging the cryptographic foundations of modern security systems.
Lt Gen Kapil Aggarwal (R) | Former DG EME Indian Army | For The News Analytics Herald
4 mins read.
Quantum technologies are emerging as one of the most transformative developments of the twenty-first century. Built on the principles of quantum mechanics, they promise breakthroughs in computing, sensing and communications, while also creating profound strategic risks. Quantum computing could trigger an “intelligence shock” by disrupting the cryptographic systems underpinning national security, intelligence operations and digital infrastructure.
Widely used encryption systems such as RSA and ECC may become vulnerable to advanced quantum machines, exposing military communications, financial systems and intelligence networks. For intelligence agencies and militaries, this represents a strategic disruption comparable to nuclear weapons or cyber warfare, with significant implications for India and global security.
END OF CLASSICAL ENCRYPTION
Modern encryption relies on mathematical problems extremely difficult for classical computers to solve. RSA depends on factoring large numbers, while ECC relies on complex elliptic curve calculations. These problems would take traditional computers millions of years to solve, making current systems effectively secure.
Quantum computers fundamentally alter this equation. By leveraging quantum phenomena, they can solve certain problems exponentially faster. Shor’s algorithm, developed in 1994, enables quantum machines to factor large integers efficiently, undermining the mathematical foundations of existing encryption systems.
Once quantum computers reach sufficient scale—often termed a “cryptographically relevant quantum computer”—much of today’s public key encryption could become obsolete. Many estimates suggest such capabilities may emerge within the next decade or two.
Even before that point, the threat already exists through “harvest now, decrypt later” strategies. Adversaries can intercept encrypted data today and store it for future decryption once quantum systems mature. Sensitive information transmitted now—military plans, intelligence data and diplomatic negotiations—may become readable years later. Quantum computing threatens to render existing encryption obsolete, exposing sensitive communications and redefining the balance of intelligence advantage between states.
THE INTELLIGENCE REVOLUTION
Beyond computing, quantum technologies are also reshaping intelligence through sensing and communications. Quantum sensors exploit extreme sensitivity to detect minute changes in gravity, magnetic fields and motion. These capabilities could transform navigation, submarine detection and underground surveillance. Quantum gravimeters may identify hidden bunkers or tunnels, while magnetometers could detect submarines previously shielded by stealth. Such developments challenge long-standing assumptions about concealment and survivability.
Quantum communications present a paradox. While quantum computing threatens encryption, Quantum Key Distribution (QKD) offers theoretically secure communication channels. By leveraging quantum properties, QKD can detect interception attempts, ensuring communication integrity.
Countries such as China have already deployed quantum communication satellites and established extensive quantum networks. The strategic competition to dominate this domain is accelerating rapidly.
INTELLIGENCE SHOCK
Historically, intelligence agencies have relied on cryptography to secure communications and intercept adversaries’ data. Quantum computing could disrupt both functions simultaneously. A nation achieving large-scale quantum capability before others adopt quantum-safe systems could gain unprecedented access to global intelligence networks.
This “Q-Day” scenario could expose years of encrypted communications, compromise military systems and destabilise global security architectures overnight. The resulting shift would accelerate the global transition towards post-quantum cryptography designed to resist quantum attacks.
INDIA’S STRATEGIC CHALLENGE
For India, the quantum transition presents both opportunity and vulnerability. Through the National Quantum Mission, India is developing indigenous capabilities in quantum computing, communications and sensing. However, critical sectors including banking, Aadhaar infrastructure and military networks still rely heavily on classical encryption.
India must accelerate the adoption of post-quantum cryptography, invest in domestic quantum technologies and modernise vulnerable infrastructure. Intelligence and cybersecurity planning must integrate quantum threats through secure encryption and advanced cryptanalysis. International cooperation, particularly through the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue and global standards bodies, will be essential to ensure interoperability, resilience and long-term strategic security.
BEING QUANTUM READY
Quantum technologies promise transformative advances, but they also challenge the foundations of the digital age. The potential disruption of encryption systems could produce an unprecedented intelligence shock, reshaping how nations secure communications, gather intelligence and conduct warfare.
For India, preparation requires long-term investment in quantum research, rapid adoption of post-quantum cryptography and the development of resilient digital infrastructure. The nations that recognise the implications of quantum technologies and act early will shape the future balance of power.
The question for India is not when the quantum era will arrive, but whether it will be prepared when it does.
(Lt Gen Kapil Aggarwal (R), former Director General EME. He is an M.Tech in Electronics from IIT Kharagpur. The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The News Analytics Herald.)
