Despite ongoing ceasefire negotiations, battlefield intensity remains unchanged, with Russia maintaining superior firepower. The ceasefire proposal appears unfavourable to both sides, as neither Kyiv nor the Kremlin wants it to solidify current frontlines as de facto borders. Ukraine fears permanently losing 20% of its territory, while Russia opposes Ukrainian troops in Kursk. Russia’s intensified counteroffensive, including a covert pipeline operation, underscores its determination, reinforced by President Putin’s morale-boosting visit to Kursk on March 13.
The News Analytics Journal Editorial Desk
a 5 mins read.
In the last three years of intense war in Ukraine, for the very first time, a substantial effort has been seen toward ending this war. The 30-day ceasefire proposal reached by the US with Ukraine and facilitated by Saudi Arabia at least qualifies as the best effort yet to push for the return of normalcy in the region. On 11th March, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, in the presence of Andrii Sybiha, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister, announced this much-expected ceasefire proposal. The details remain sketchy, but a lot has been creeping out of the closed-door discussions. This meeting has already garnered enough attention due to the backdrop of infamous discussions between the Presidents of the US and Ukraine in the Oval Office just a few days ago.
The heated discussions and comments made by President Trump were beamed all across the world as prime-time news. That incident had an immediate fallout, with the US “putting a pause” on all its military assistance to Ukraine. The sky suddenly went dark for Ukrainian forces as they were deprived of vital satellite intelligence coming from the US. The impact looked so severe that it pushed Europe into a huddle to work out a scenario of “Europe without America”. The intensity of Trump’s views can be gauged by the fact that within a week’s time, Europe could find ways and means to generate €800 billion for the collective security budget in the next four years. It also tried to give moral support to the distraught Ukrainian President.
THE CONTOURS
The ceasefire announced from Jeddah calls for a “30-Day Total Ceasefire” with a scope of “it may be extended” as against the “Air & Sea Ceasefire” being advocated by Ukraine to date. This agreement allowed Ukraine to get an immediate lift on the US “pause” for the transfer of military aid and intelligence. However, it fell short of the “security guarantee” that President Zelensky was demanding from the US. It also did not lead to the anticipated deal on rare earth minerals between the US and Ukraine. For the time being, Ukraine appears to have done some repairs to its relations with the US while keeping the flexibility of further negotiations.
The development was being observed with lots of interest, not only in Russia but also in the rest of Europe. The quick follow-up comments on the progress being in the right direction came from France, the UK, and Poland. Russia was cautious in its response to Rubio’s assertion that the “ball is in Russia’s court”. Initial responses emanating from the Kremlin sounded to flatten down the high expectations, suggesting “not to get ahead of things”. It was also learnt that Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff made a quick visit to Russia, potentially seeking a favourable Russian response, but the success of this hush visit remains a question mark.
The War Dynamics
These ceasefire negotiations have, however, not altered the battlefront intensity. The firepower still largely remains in favour of Russia. In a skewed reality, this ceasefire proposal looks unfavourable to both the warring parties in the current state. The fear that both Kyiv and the Kremlin have is that the ceasefire takes the shape of an armistice, leaving the status quo on the front as a de facto borderline. This situation is one that, surprisingly, none of the warring parties are comfortable with. Ukraine, having lost almost 20% of its territory to Russian forces, is worried the loss will become permanent. On the other hand, Russia doesn’t want Ukrainian troops to remain in the Kursk region when any ceasefire is announced.
As a testament to this assertion, Russia has intensified its Kursk counteroffensive. This also amplifies the role of the clandestine pipeline operation carried out by 800 Russian troops, who walked miles through an unused underground gas pipeline with oxygen masks to outflank Ukrainian positions in Sudzha. This operation is largely credited with having brought sudden success to Russia. How serious Russia is in clearing out Ukrainian troops from its soil is apparent from the fact that President Putin made a quick visit to Kursk on 13th March in a bid to boost the morale of the front-line troops.
What Russia doesn’t want now is to be coerced into a ceasefire while the Ukrainian forces still remain in Kursk. For Russia, this would prevent them from claiming a “total victory” in the war. It’s time to agree to a ceasefire proposal that seems more concerning than the ceasefire itself. Russia has maintained a purposeful ambiguity on the desired end state of this war. After the initial debacle of its full-blown offensive, where the plan was to overrun Ukraine almost overnight, Russia adopted a more ambivalent approach, targeting all of Ukraine in every dimension possible without ever amplifying its intent to capture and control the quantum of territory.
At Stake
As the efforts of a ceasefire gain currency and Europe starts to understand Trump’s diplomatic objective much better, the impact has also been felt in Russia for responding appropriately. Delaying the inevitable may not be the only option that the Kremlin might be contemplating. President Trump’s denunciation of the Ukrainian President for not holding any cards in the war play might not be entirely accurate on the ground.
Despite the massive destruction of Ukrainian territory and the seemingly ominous Russian attacks, it can be said that Ukraine still holds a few strong cards. Its forces still supposedly occupy a piece of Russian territory; it continues to get unwavering support from Europe; it can derail Russia’s best opportunity to culminate the war and gain favours from the US for quickly reversing global isolation and curiously, its stocks of rare earth minerals have earned the deep attention of the US. All of this collectively makes President Zelensky’s hands strong for further negotiations.
For Russia, earning a ceasefire proposal from the enemy has given it psychological superiority. It has dramatically worked to boost the morale and even some ego in the power corridors. It has offered a clear direction to Russia to approach the end state, which so far has appeared to be working on a strategy of winning by creating war fatigue in the enemy ranks. With President Trump’s direct intervention, there is a sudden, unexpected change of winds. This has also considerably narrowed down Russian war objectives to regaining Kursk and preventing any European troops from being deployed in Ukraine. The second objective is being the most sensitive; after all the bloodbaths, European troops eventually setting foot in Ukraine would be a worse outcome for Russia than the war itself!
The Russian response to limit the ceasefire to energy facilities has effectively killed the proposal itself. It can be safely assumed that Russia is quickly working to create guardrails around the nuances of the likely ceasefire. However, it is also cautious not to be seen as outrightly rejecting the offer. Buying some time in the bargain for its military to regain the Kursk completely. The announcement of recapturing Sudzha couldn’t have come at a better moment for Russia. It may even later agree to a UN-sponsored peacekeeping force on its border with Ukraine, making calls for European forces untenable. Come what may, Russia is unlikely to budge from letting NATO or combined European Forces set foot in Ukraine. The dice now appear much more favourable to the Kremlin than they probably what it was a month before!
Major Highlights
- The ceasefire proposal was the first substantial effort toward ending this war.
- The proposal fell short of Ukraine’s demand for a “security guarantee”.
- Europe commits to generating €800 billion for its collective security budget.
- Russia has intensified its Kursk counteroffensive, recapturing Sudzha.
- Russia gains a psychological edge with a ceasefire proposal from the enemy.
- Russia’s response to have a limited ceasefire has killed the proposal for now.
